Final Offseason Thoughts

[JimZipCode]

Today marks the end of the offseason!

I know there are a lot of negative nellies out there, and a lot of forum members who distrust Harbaugh so much that you can't even see improvement when you're looking right at it. For you guys, I want to say for the record that I'm very excited with the moves the Ravens have made this offseason.

I think it's rare for a franchise to make moves that are sound and simulataneously address both the near-term and long-term needs of the organization. For the near-term, they "reshaped the WR room" with productive-but-not-old veterans, and drafted for need in the first round, getting the most pro-ready 2-way tight end in the draft. For the long-term, they got a big & powerful RT and created a succession plan for Joe where there wasn't one before, grabbing the most electric playmaking QB in the draft. I was bitterly disappointed not to get DJ Moore; but from a big-picture perspective, the moves make a ton of sense and look pretty good. Of course any of those moves might fail to work out: that's the nature of the business. It's probably more likely for a QB not to develop into a good starter, than to develop; Zeus Deuce's combine performance is disturbing. But these are decent bets with high upside.

Honestly, if these were all the moves, it would be a big deal. Creating a path for the Ravens to be competitive in '19 /'20 /'21 without Flacco, laying the groundwork for a post-Flacco future: that was the single most critical task this organization faced. They seem to have solved the shit out of it. But there's more!

Ding, dong, Pees is gone! What we've heard from defenders during OTA's and minicamp is thrilling. We'll have to see it in action before we know anything, of course. But it sounds like everything we hated about the previous D -- the passivity, the lack of flexbility, the players reacting like rule-bound robots rather than playing instinctively and to their strengths -- it sounds like all of that will be different. Better, who knows; but different is exciting all by itself. Coach Wink talks the right talk; we'll start to see the walk over the next few weeks. Also, the new LB coach Mike MacDonald is supposedly a rising star.

A new QB coach, experienced and well-regarded! Focusing on footwork with Joe! Another season of development with Roman & Joe D! O-linemen getting healthy! Kenneth Dixon getting healthy! This is all good shit.

Not only do we now have a future; we also have a present. For THIS season, I see a playoff team. I have this:

• 11 wins, at least 2 postseason games
• Flacco's best season since '14; sets new career high in TD passes
• One of the most well-rounded Ravens teams we've seen: top-3 D and a top-12 O

The one prediction that makes me hesitate is the TDs. It's a weird moment to pick Flacco to set a career high in TD passes, when the Ravens spent the offseason actively developing other options in the red zone. They have Greg Roman's inventive rushing attack, featuring at least a TWO-headed monster in Collins & Dixon, souped-up with a massive new RT and a TE who can run-block. (The TE's college team even handed off to him sometimes; I wouldn't be surprised to see some of that this season.) And they have whatever Lamar Jackson gadgetry they plan on deploying this season. Those things are going to leach red-zone TDs from Joe.

I still have the sense that Joe will set a new high in TDs. The only way that can go is sort of a "rising tide" effect: the offense is so much better that despite some TDs being leached, we have more productive possessions overall (fewer 3-&-outs etc), so more chances for the team to get TDs. Enough TDS for Collins/Dixon to get theirs, and the LJ Experiment to gets its, and ALSO for Joe to get more than he ever has. Also Harbaugh said this offseason that the deep passing game "has to" be a big part of what they do this year. That's Joe, along with John Brown & Crabtree & maybe Hurst. Anything else and my TD-pass prediction is going to fail.

So there it is. I want to be definitive about this, so I have no wiggle-room to back out later: I think this squad is a good team. A double-digit win team. I think it's so obviously a playoff team (barring the I-word), that I'm bewildered by you guys who don't see it.

Boy I hope I'm right.

[SouthSide]

Today marks the end of the offseason!

I know there are a lot of negative nellies out there, and a lot of forum members who distrust Harbaugh so much that you can't even see improvement when you're looking right at it. For you guys, I want to say for the record that I'm very excited with the moves the Ravens have made this offseason.

I think it's rare for a franchise to make moves that are sound and simulataneously address both the near-term and long-term needs of the organization. For the near-term, they "reshaped the WR room" with productive-but-not-old veterans, and drafted for need in the first round, getting the most pro-ready 2-way tight end in the draft. For the long-term, they got a big & powerful RT and created a succession plan for Joe where there wasn't one before, grabbing the most electric playmaking QB in the draft. I was bitterly disappointed not to get DJ Moore; but from a big-picture perspective, the moves make a ton of sense and look pretty good. Of course any of those moves might fail to work out: that's the nature of the business. It's probably more likely for a QB not to develop into a good starter, than to develop; Zeus Deuce's combine performance is disturbing. But these are decent bets with high upside.

Honestly, if these were all the moves, it would be a big deal. Creating a path for the Ravens to be competitive in '19 /'20 /'21 without Flacco, laying the groundwork for a post-Flacco future: that was the single most critical task this organization faced. They seem to have solved the shit out of it. But there's more!

Ding, dong, Pees is gone! What we've heard from defenders during OTA's and minicamp is thrilling. We'll have to see it in action before we know anything, of course. But it sounds like everything we hated about the previous D -- the passivity, the lack of flexbility, the players reacting like rule-bound robots rather than playing instinctively and to their strengths -- it sounds like all of that will be different. Better, who knows; but different is exciting all by itself. Coach Wink talks the right talk; we'll start to see the walk over the next few weeks. Also, the new LB coach Mike MacDonald is supposedly a rising star.

A new QB coach, experienced and well-regarded! Focusing on footwork with Joe! Another season of development with Roman & Joe D! O-linemen getting healthy! Kenneth Dixon getting healthy! This is all good shit.

Not only do we now have a future; we also have a present. For THIS season, I see a playoff team. I have this:

• 11 wins, at least 2 postseason games
• Flacco's best season since '14; sets new career high in TD passes
• One of the most well-rounded Ravens teams we've seen: top-3 D and a top-12 O

The one prediction that makes me hesitate is the TDs. It's a weird moment to pick Flacco to set a career high in TD passes, when the Ravens spent the offseason actively developing other options in the red zone. They have Greg Roman's inventive rushing attack, featuring at least a TWO-headed monster in Collins & Dixon, souped-up with a massive new RT and a TE who can run-block. (The TE's college team even handed off to him sometimes; I wouldn't be surprised to see some of that this season.) And they have whatever Lamar Jackson gadgetry they plan on deploying this season. Those things are going to leach red-zone TDs from Joe.

I still have the sense that Joe will set a new high in TDs. The only way that can go is sort of a "rising tide" effect: the offense is so much better that despite some TDs being leached, we have more productive possessions overall (fewer 3-&-outs etc), so more chances for the team to get TDs. Enough TDS for Collins/Dixon to get theirs, and the LJ Experiment to gets its, and ALSO for Joe to get more than he ever has. Also Harbaugh said this offseason that the deep passing game "has to" be a big part of what they do this year. That's Joe, along with John Brown & Crabtree & maybe Hurst. Anything else and my TD-pass prediction is going to fail.

So there it is. I want to be definitive about this, so I have no wiggle-room to back out later: I think this squad is a good team. A double-digit win team. I think it's so obviously a playoff team (barring the I-word), that I'm bewildered by you guys who don't see it.

Boy I hope I'm right.

I agree from an Optimism standpoint. I'm really excited for this season. There is no reason to not expect a competitive team this year given all the off season changes (people getting healthy, new talent, new coaching, etc.).

[BcRaven]

Simply put, for the first time in several years I'm looking forward to the season with enthusiasm. I think Flacco, and the Ravens, will have a better year than expected. However, that's not the reason for my optimism. Of course I hope our team does well, but it's LJ's presence that gives me hope for the future of the Ravens. Is it false hope? While that remains to be seen, at least this old man's heart is beating a little faster as we approach 2018 regular season play. This could create the foundation for the next Raven's era, as we saw in 2008 when Flacco was drafted... Bc

[John Morris]

Today marks the end of the offseason!

I know there are a lot of negative nellies out there, and a lot of forum members who distrust Harbaugh so much that you can't even see improvement when you're looking right at it. For you guys, I want to say for the record that I'm very excited with the moves the Ravens have made this offseason.

I think it's rare for a franchise to make moves that are sound and simulataneously address both the near-term and long-term needs of the organization. For the near-term, they "reshaped the WR room" with productive-but-not-old veterans, and drafted for need in the first round, getting the most pro-ready 2-way tight end in the draft. For the long-term, they got a big & powerful RT and created a succession plan for Joe where there wasn't one before, grabbing the most electric playmaking QB in the draft. I was bitterly disappointed not to get DJ Moore; but from a big-picture perspective, the moves make a ton of sense and look pretty good. Of course any of those moves might fail to work out: that's the nature of the business. It's probably more likely for a QB not to develop into a good starter, than to develop; Zeus Deuce's combine performance is disturbing. But these are decent bets with high upside.

Honestly, if these were all the moves, it would be a big deal. Creating a path for the Ravens to be competitive in '19 /'20 /'21 without Flacco, laying the groundwork for a post-Flacco future: that was the single most critical task this organization faced. They seem to have solved the shit out of it. But there's more!

Ding, dong, Pees is gone! What we've heard from defenders during OTA's and minicamp is thrilling. We'll have to see it in action before we know anything, of course. But it sounds like everything we hated about the previous D -- the passivity, the lack of flexbility, the players reacting like rule-bound robots rather than playing instinctively and to their strengths -- it sounds like all of that will be different. Better, who knows; but different is exciting all by itself. Coach Wink talks the right talk; we'll start to see the walk over the next few weeks. Also, the new LB coach Mike MacDonald is supposedly a rising star.

A new QB coach, experienced and well-regarded! Focusing on footwork with Joe! Another season of development with Roman & Joe D! O-linemen getting healthy! Kenneth Dixon getting healthy! This is all good shit.

Not only do we now have a future; we also have a present. For THIS season, I see a playoff team. I have this:

• 11 wins, at least 2 postseason games
• Flacco's best season since '14; sets new career high in TD passes
• One of the most well-rounded Ravens teams we've seen: top-3 D and a top-12 O

The one prediction that makes me hesitate is the TDs. It's a weird moment to pick Flacco to set a career high in TD passes, when the Ravens spent the offseason actively developing other options in the red zone. They have Greg Roman's inventive rushing attack, featuring at least a TWO-headed monster in Collins & Dixon, souped-up with a massive new RT and a TE who can run-block. (The TE's college team even handed off to him sometimes; I wouldn't be surprised to see some of that this season.) And they have whatever Lamar Jackson gadgetry they plan on deploying this season. Those things are going to leach red-zone TDs from Joe.

I still have the sense that Joe will set a new high in TDs. The only way that can go is sort of a "rising tide" effect: the offense is so much better that despite some TDs being leached, we have more productive possessions overall (fewer 3-&-outs etc), so more chances for the team to get TDs. Enough TDS for Collins/Dixon to get theirs, and the LJ Experiment to gets its, and ALSO for Joe to get more than he ever has. Also Harbaugh said this offseason that the deep passing game "has to" be a big part of what they do this year. That's Joe, along with John Brown & Crabtree & maybe Hurst. Anything else and my TD-pass prediction is going to fail.

So there it is. I want to be definitive about this, so I have no wiggle-room to back out later: I think this squad is a good team. A double-digit win team. I think it's so obviously a playoff team (barring the I-word), that I'm bewildered by you guys who don't see it.

Boy I hope I'm right.

Good post. I'm right there with you.

Very excited about this year.

[SouthSide]

I'm very interested to what Flacco can do with TE Mark Andrews. I see a lot of potential. Essentially a big WR.

[esmd]

I still think they're probably a .500 team at best, but we'll see.

Buffalo - W
@ Cincy - L
Denver - W
@ Pittsburgh - L
@ Cleveland - W
@ Titans - W (only because of Dean Pees)
New Orleans - L
@ Carolina - L
Pittsburgh - W
Cincy - W
Oakland - L
@ Falcons - L
@ Chiefs - L
Tampa - W
@ Chargers - L
Browns - W

Before Pees went to Nashville, I'd have given them an L down there. And this is assuming they don't shit the bed on any of the games they should win, like against Cincy at home, or maybe Cleveland on the road.

[JimZipCode]

Oakland - L

I am not especially afraid of the 6-10 Raiders flying to the East Coast under a HC who's been out of football for 10 years, and beating the Ravens in a 1:00 game in Baltimore.

Flip two other games, and you get to 11. Maybe @Cinci, or home against Nawlins (super tough), or @Carolina (brutal) or @Chargers. The Chargers are very good; but maybe LA will not give them much of a home advantage.

Of course we'll have our annual shit-the-bed game one week; maybe that'll be Oakland. But if we're good, we'll have a surprising win or two to offset. (And if we're not, we won't.)

[esmd]

We beat them last year with Carr out. I expect him to bounce back, and they have a nasty pass rush with Mack and Irvins. It could go either way, but if we can't get to Carr, it could be a long day for us.

[Bhcforlife]

I'm still lukewarm. If everything comes together the team could end up 11-12 wins but I think the "newness" is going to be a detriment in the beginning of the season and cost them a game or two they would win if it were in the back half of the season (Denver, as an example). I expect it to take time for all the new receivers and Joe to gel given the mythical passing camp never happened and isn't going to happen (and wouldn't have made a big difference anyway), and defensively we have some key guys coming back from injury that are going to be still getting their feet under them in the first quarter of the season, not to mention it's a new coordinator.

I think barring major injury they are a much stronger team in the second half of the season than the first, which is good because the back half is tougher. Does that get them to 10-11 wins and a playoff spot? Not sure, but I don't think the AFC is any tougher in general than it was last year, so I guess there's a chance.

[Rygar64]

Yay, Predictions Sure To Go Wrong Time!

I put this on the other board last week, but my thoughts haven't changed:

Figured I'd look at the schedule to see where the wins and losses are likely to come. Quickly came to the conclusion that I get this wrong damn near every time I attempt to do it, so I thought taking a look at historical records was just as good a predictor as anything else.
Based on the Ravens records(as of 2008) against the teams on the schedule this year,
the team will finish 11-5. Here's how I got there, I went through the schedule and gave them a W or L based on the historical record:

Bills- 2-1, Win
Bengals 9-11, Loss
Broncos, 3-3, Win
Steelers, 11-12, Loss
Browns, 18-2, Win
Titans, 2-3, Loss
Saints, 2-0, Win
Panthers, 2-0, Win
Steelers, 11-12, Win
Bengals, 9-11, Loss
Raiders, 4-2, Win
Falcons, 1-1, Loss
Chiefs, 3-1, Win
Bucs, 2-0, Win
Chargers, 3-2, Win
Browns, 18-2, Win

Basically, I split the Steelers games, per usual. The Bengals have a 2 game win advantage, so I gave them both games. The Ravens are even with the Broncos and the Falcons, so I split those. The rest I went by what the current W/L ratio is. Crazy? Crazy like a fox! This is totally gonna work, lol.

[JimZipCode]

We beat them last year with Carr out. I expect him to bounce back, and they have a nasty pass rush with Mack and Irvins. It could go either way

They suck. Fuck them. 30th in pass defense DVOA last season; and if Guenther has them fall back in his 2-deep zone, Roman will run all over them. Carr played 15 games. Gruden is going to have them playing small ball WCO, which doesn't fit Carr's or Amari Cooper's skillsets. Their receptions leader from last season is wearing a Ravens uniform. They're a West Coast team playing a 1:00 game on the East Coast.

Ravens win easy.

[SugarRay52]

It’s Lamar Jackson’s world and we’re all living in it LOL There’s optimism for ya LOL