OT: New Gambling Law Question

[Ortizer]

Arnie ...nothing is tax free here. lol. They’d tax air if they could.


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Arguably food, but you're paying for it with taxed income. :shrug:

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[The Fanatic]

Arnie ...nothing is tax free here. lol. They’d tax air if they could.


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Hell, they taxed the freakin' rain!!

[Goode05]

A few options and explanations:

-As people have mentioned, in all likelihood, all of the casinos nationwide will more or less share the same line. Or, the megachains will just have their own line, and as there's only a few, if you place a bet in Baltimore, you're still sharing the same line as people all across the country.

If for some reason or another, the booking was done by boutiques, or you had very state centric lines:

-There's a chance that you'd still have online booking available. So if gamblers in New York heard that there was a Maryland centric line open, they would make sure to put some bets down that had great advantages for them.
-If for some reason or another they ONLY allowed Maryland betters, they could spoof the IP addresses, or there are plenty of non Ravens fans living in Maryland.

In the unlikely scenario that you had boutique companies taking the bookings, and they didn't take any bets online:
-People would get word of this, and gambling addicts would drive down to place some bets.
-Ravens fans would be like "whatever, its money" and bet against the team.
-Early on, you'd have professional gamblers and investment funds who would move the line until it snapped back to where it was supposed to be.

So really, as there's a lot of money in gambling, you rarely see the affect of too many betting on popular teams because of their homerism. There's enough money in gambling that pros or investment funds will jump in if its proven that the market is getting laughable inefficient. But consider that there's also a vig that the casinos take, so most of the time, gambling is never a smart investment. Also, to put things in perspective, homers might put $50 down on their team on a whim. Addicts and professionals who tend to not be emotional about it move money by the thousands. They typically are the ones who move the line.

Addicts? Bit harsh


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[Goode05]

Great post and question. I’d think along the lines of TrackMaster. With the added thought that if “homer” bets could affect the line...the gaming commission could do like Vegas does...not allow wagers on local teams.
In Vegas you can’t bet a UNLV game. Now you prob can’t bet on the Golden Knights. So to “control “ the lines and money ...states could do the same thing. In MD ...no Terps, Ravens, Orioles and maybe no ‘Skins since they play in MD. Jersey it would be no Giants /Jets. Just a thought. Like Track said ...is regular , casual betters are not gonna influence a line that much. For every dollar laid on a Ravens game by a homer..there’s prob 10x that laid against the Ravens everywhere else.


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You can bet on the golden knights. A lot did Vegas had a pretty big scare as they were 400-1 or 500-1 to win the cup at the start of the season


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[BcRaven]

Arnie ...nothing is tax free here. lol. They’d tax air if they could.

"Yeah, tell me about it!"





... Bc

[Goode05]

We have online gambling. It’s just not legal therefore not taxable. Vegas sportsbook is legal there. They tax your winnings after a certain amount. That’s what the new law will allow other states to do now. Legal / taxable sports betting.


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It’s more so the casino pays taxes on their profits. Like horse racing. You only pay taxes (in pa atleast) if you hit more then $600 on a 1 dollar bet. I’ve been fortunate enough to have had to pay taxes on two different trifectas over the years. One $2 tri paid $1230 and I was wasted played the wrong track and caught a $2 tri for $2400 and some change (lol). If you were betting say $10,000 on a 3-1 shot and hit no taxes. If that makes sense


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[Laxdad24]

Hell, they taxed the freakin' rain!!

Ain’t that the truth! Good ole Spend-Malley!


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[Laxdad24]

You can bet on the golden knights. A lot did Vegas had a pretty big scare as they were 400-1 or 500-1 to win the cup at the start of the season


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Gotcha. They must have changed the rules when they ( Vegas) got the Knights.


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[Laxdad24]

It’s more so the casino pays taxes on their profits. Like horse racing. You only pay taxes (in pa atleast) if you hit more then $600 on a 1 dollar bet. I’ve been fortunate enough to have had to pay taxes on two different trifectas over the years. One $2 tri paid $1230 and I was wasted played the wrong track and caught a $2 tri for $2400 and some change (lol). If you were betting say $10,000 on a 3-1 shot and hit no taxes. If that makes sense


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Makes total sense. I don’t play the ponies but I get how they tax it. That’s kinda what I meant. In Del the Lottery has Football parlay tickets now. You only pay tax on I think winning over $5000?


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[Rosdaman]

There is a movement afoot to legalize on-line sports gambling:

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id...sports-betting

Once this occurs, there will be uniform lines. For those so inclined, there will likely be in-game action as well. Will be fascinating to see how prop bets change after a pick 6, and how the casino operators will implement a system so that those at the site of the game can't take advantage of their "advance" (albeit, very short time span) knowledge. They'll likely have a spotter with rapid communication to HQ placed in each venue.

[Filmstudy]

A few options and explanations:

-As people have mentioned, in all likelihood, all of the casinos nationwide will more or less share the same line. Or, the megachains will just have their own line, and as there's only a few, if you place a bet in Baltimore, you're still sharing the same line as people all across the country.

If for some reason or another, the booking was done by boutiques, or you had very state centric lines:

-There's a chance that you'd still have online booking available. So if gamblers in New York heard that there was a Maryland centric line open, they would make sure to put some bets down that had great advantages for them.
-If for some reason or another they ONLY allowed Maryland betters, they could spoof the IP addresses, or there are plenty of non Ravens fans living in Maryland.

In the unlikely scenario that you had boutique companies taking the bookings, and they didn't take any bets online:
-People would get word of this, and gambling addicts would drive down to place some bets.
-Ravens fans would be like "whatever, its money" and bet against the team.
-Early on, you'd have professional gamblers and investment funds who would move the line until it snapped back to where it was supposed to be.

So really, as there's a lot of money in gambling, you rarely see the affect of too many betting on popular teams because of their homerism. There's enough money in gambling that pros or investment funds will jump in if its proven that the market is getting laughable inefficient. But consider that there's also a vig that the casinos take, so most of the time, gambling is never a smart investment. Also, to put things in perspective, homers might put $50 down on their team on a whim. Addicts and professionals who tend to not be emotional about it move money by the thousands. They typically are the ones who move the line.

This is the best response so far.

The UK has a couple of dozen significant books that all share their information on Oddschecker.com.

If you take a look there, you will see differentiation of pricing for any event or proposition, even though they are all online books. I'll often refer to the "aggregate line", which is the best price available on each side of the wager. From those best prices, you can determine if the market is offering an arbitrage opportunity. In gambling, that means the best price on each outcome allows for you to bet both sides with a guaranteed profit. Not surprisingly, since all of the online books are monitoring each other, the aggregate line typically shows 1-2% juice on any proposition.

As an aside, the biggest recent arbitrage opportunity I have seen came during the last presidential election when gamblers determined Trump would win approximately 8 hours before the networks would call the race for him. At times between 4 and 7 PM that night, you could bet as little as $9,400 with a guaranteed return of $10,000.

Why is all this detail important for local lines? Because the more interconnected we become in terms of where the line is available, the more people there will be sitting at a computer looking for arbitrage opportunities or simply shopping for the best price on their favorite team. Bricks-and-mortar casinos rarely offer the best price on wagers and their physical books should go the way of the dodo much as retailers have lost to Amazon.

A last point...the aggregate line is dollar weighted, not count-of-idiots weighted, so it really doesn't matter if their are MORE Steelers or Packers fans, their popular opinion is washed out by the tide of smart money.

[Greg]

It looks like sooner or later, sports betting will be available in almost all states. This changes NFL betting in an interesting way concerning betting lines.

To date, Vegas has set the NFL lines, and the offshore online community follows along with them. The idea for a casino, of course, is to set the line so they get equal money on both sides of the bet. And Vegas has always been a neutral site in terms of rooting interests.

Given the betters set the line and each casino moves their line based on the action they are getting, lines at MD casinos will likely have the Ravens with getting less or giving more points because there will be more emotional action on them here. That might be offset by professional gamblers who move in to take advantage.

The lines are set to get 50/50 action. The house makes it money on the juice the loser pays. They don't care who wins or by how much as long as they have a roughly 50/50 split of their action because the loser pays 10% of their bet in juice (actually both do but a winner gets his bet, his juice, and the winnings equal to his bet back).

Paramutual odds work the same way, though it is a bit more complicated. But again, the casino has built-in juice they get regardless of the outcome as long as the bets are spread among the odds appropriately.

Your thoughts about the lines being different depending on location are spot on. Each casino sets their lines and odds based on the action they are getting. If Harrahs is taking bets across the country they may set lines locally or move them based on the national action. I don't know about that, but local casinos will set their lines based on their action.

As you note, you might get better odds in western PA on the Ravens, but this will be minimal since you and many others, including professionals, will note it and move in. When it comes to spreads it might be possible to place bets in two locations where team A is giving 3 points in one place and giving 7 in another. You could bet both sides such that if team A wins by 4-6 points you win both bets. But in any case you will win at least one and lose only the 10% (or 5% overall) juice. Basically you would be getting 20-1 odds on team A winning by 4-6 points. But given that big money gamblers move where they get the best odds or line any disparity like this will quickly be pounced on and move to a closer line.

It's an interesting thought, though. The more passionate and/or stupid the fan base the better chance you could win money off their team. It might be worth watching if MA ever allows NFL betting.