OT: New Gambling Law Question

**HotInHere** · 06-15-2018, 09:06 AM

It looks like sooner or later, sports betting will be available in almost all states. This changes NFL betting in an interesting way concerning betting lines.

To date, Vegas has set the NFL lines, and the offshore online community follows along with them. The idea for a casino, of course, is to set the line so they get equal money on both sides of the bet. And Vegas has always been a neutral site in terms of rooting interests.

But let's say MD and PA legalize sports betting. Being in Baltimore, the action the Horseshoe Casino is going to get is going to be heavily skewed towards the Ravens. In other words, Ravens fans who want to drop a few bucks on the Ravens to win it all are just going to head to the closest sports book and put a bet down. So theoretically, that sports book would offer worse odds, since they are going to get more betting action just based on their location. Meanwhile in Pittsburgh, they will actually have less action than average betting on the Ravens, because they actively dislike the Ravens, and the Ravens are in direct competition with their local team.

So right now, the Ravens are ~40-1 to win the SB. You could see a scenario in the near future where a Vegas bet would get you 40-1, but the same bet in Baltimore might only get you 30-1, whereas you could drive to Pittsburgh and place a bet that would get you 50-1.

People passing through Horseshoe on their way to a game might buy a ticket that they can cash in on the way back. So even if the Ravens are 4 point dogs in a given game, the Horseshoe might make it even odds just to drive some action to the opposing team.

Does this seem plausible, or is there a hole in my logic somewhere?

**brown2RAVEN** · 06-15-2018, 09:17 AM

Interesting question. I don't know how much casual gamblers influence the line
But Horseshoe is owned by Caesars. I'm not sure if they adjust lines locally.

**BPF2** · 06-15-2018, 10:16 AM

Most casinos are owned by a handful of companies - Caesars, MGM, Bally Gaming, etc. My understanding is that it's actually one casino in Vegas that sets the initial line, and all others have their own sports book organization that adjust to get that even money. So I would think that in your example, the Casesars would probably set one line across all of their casinos and adjust universally. If they let local casinos drive the line based on "homers" you could end up with a situation where a close game the casino loses on both sides.

**moose10101** · 06-15-2018, 10:50 AM

I think they'll use a single line, and learn to adjust it to balance the nationwide action. Doing it any other way would open some amazing arbitrage opportunities. That would be disastrous for the sports books.

**Trackmaster** · 06-15-2018, 02:29 PM

A few options and explanations:

-As people have mentioned, in all likelihood, all of the casinos nationwide will more or less share the same line. Or, the megachains will just have their own line, and as there's only a few, if you place a bet in Baltimore, you're still sharing the same line as people all across the country.

If for some reason or another, the booking was done by boutiques, or you had very state centric lines:

-There's a chance that you'd still have online booking available. So if gamblers in New York heard that there was a Maryland centric line open, they would make sure to put some bets down that had great advantages for them.
-If for some reason or another they ONLY allowed Maryland betters, they could spoof the IP addresses, or there are plenty of non Ravens fans living in Maryland.

In the unlikely scenario that you had boutique companies taking the bookings, and they didn't take any bets online:
-People would get word of this, and gambling addicts would drive down to place some bets.
-Ravens fans would be like "whatever, its money" and bet against the team.
-Early on, you'd have professional gamblers and investment funds who would move the line until it snapped back to where it was supposed to be.

So really, as there's a lot of money in gambling, you rarely see the affect of too many betting on popular teams because of their homerism. There's enough money in gambling that pros or investment funds will jump in if its proven that the market is getting laughable inefficient. But consider that there's also a vig that the casinos take, so most of the time, gambling is never a smart investment. Also, to put things in perspective, homers might put $50 down on their team on a whim. Addicts and professionals who tend to not be emotional about it move money by the thousands. They typically are the ones who move the line.

**Laxdad24** · 06-15-2018, 03:51 PM

Great post and question. I’d think along the lines of TrackMaster. With the added thought that if “homer” bets could affect the line...the gaming commission could do like Vegas does...not allow wagers on local teams.
In Vegas you can’t bet a UNLV game. Now you prob can’t bet on the Golden Knights. So to “control “ the lines and money ...states could do the same thing. In MD ...no Terps, Ravens, Orioles and maybe no ‘Skins since they play in MD. Jersey it would be no Giants /Jets. Just a thought. Like Track said ...is regular , casual betters are not gonna influence a line that much. For every dollar laid on a Ravens game by a homer..there’s prob 10x that laid against the Ravens everywhere else.

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**GOTA** · 06-15-2018, 04:44 PM

This is a great topic. I don't have the answers but I'm sure going to be following the thoughts on this one. We're looking at some real fundamental changes to the way things work. It's going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out

**BcRaven** · 06-15-2018, 04:49 PM

Is this a winner?

I can see a 7... Bc

**arnie_uk** · 06-15-2018, 06:27 PM

I don't get this. Could you not bet on us sport unless you lived in vegas?

Yous dont have online betting like william hill, paddy power, labrokes etc that you can literally bet on anything?

**Laxdad24** · 06-15-2018, 07:05 PM

Originally Posted by arnie_uk

I don't get this. Could you not bet on us sport unless you lived in vegas?

Yous dont have online betting like william hill, paddy power, labrokes etc that you can literally bet on anything?

We have online gambling. It’s just not legal therefore not taxable. Vegas sportsbook is legal there. They tax your winnings after a certain amount. That’s what the new law will allow other states to do now. Legal / taxable sports betting.

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**arnie_uk** · 06-16-2018, 07:30 AM

Originally Posted by Laxdad24

We have online gambling. It’s just not legal therefore not taxable. Vegas sportsbook is legal there. They tax your winnings after a certain amount. That’s what the new law will allow other states to do now. Legal / taxable sports betting.

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ah ok.
Gambling income is tax free in the uk