Extra defender in the box is worth 1 less yard per carry

**Paintballguy** · 06-07-2018, 06:42 PM

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**BMORERavens** · 06-08-2018, 03:38 PM

Originally Posted by Paintballguy

There is no statistical backing in that theory. Running success does not correlate directly to play action success. I’ll pull up the stats later.

A well timed and well executed play action is enough to fool a defense.

The lions were one of the worst running teams and most successful play action teams last year.

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I still have doubts our team, (particularly Flacco) has the approval from the coaches (particularly the Head coach), to audible out of such run plays. If he does, and he elects to still go ahead with the run play, then that’s a bigger problem than I thought.

**Paintballguy** · 06-08-2018, 06:18 PM

https://twitter.com/friscojosh/statu...389680640?s=21

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**Paintballguy** · 06-12-2018, 02:09 PM

Rushing success has no correlation with play action success

https://twitter.com/grahambarfield/s...249946113?s=21

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**Ortizer** · 06-12-2018, 06:23 PM

Originally Posted by Paintballguy

Rushing success has no correlation with play action success

https://twitter.com/grahambarfield/s...249946113?s=21

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How about rushing attempts?

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**Paintballguy** · 06-12-2018, 06:26 PM

Originally Posted by Ortizer

How about rushing attempts?

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https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/stat...825828866?s=21

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**Ortizer** · 06-12-2018, 10:07 PM

Originally Posted by Paintballguy

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/stat...825828866?s=21

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Interesting. Thanks.

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**Trackmaster** · 06-13-2018, 09:57 AM

Originally Posted by Paintballguy

Really interesting stuff going on by this really good football analytics guy on Twitter. https://twitter.com/friscojosh/statu...545918466?s=21

His findings so far have said that an extra 8th man in the box is worth 1 less yard per carry.

I don’t get why teams run into a stacked box. Audible and pass that shit. Or why even call a run outside of obvious situations. Walk up with a pass play and audible to a run if you get a good look.

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I guess that its either because they have a fantastic running game and a terrible passing game, they have a huge lead and they're trying to turtle the game away, or...:

Remember, you allowed to run different plays on defense despite showing a different look. Safeties who are put into the box are allowed to run back and get back into their natural spot just before the snap or after the snap. So an offense might be trying to get into the chess match where they're calling the defense's bluff before they do it.

I'm obviously not a football coach, but when I play Madden (and I assume I would try to do this if I was a real coach too) I try to stay as basic as possible with my formations and the skill position balance. I value fullbacks, try to avoid 4 WR sets, and on defense don't go more than nickel unless its 3rd or 4th and long. Why? I like to disguise my looks. Keeping the personnel as bland as possible let's me get the full value of the surprise, and doesn't tip my hand either way. If you come out with 3-4 WR sets in shotgun, and try to run play-action, you're not fooling anybody. I value fullbacks and runblocking tight ends who can catch the ball, but also set up nice sweeps (although the problems with sweeps is that they take away from selling a good play action). Still, they make the opponent respect the run.