It's late, but my draft review. Take it FWIW

[HbgPARavenfan]

I can't possibly agree with that.

Maybe if you said, if he hasn't made a Pro Bowl by the end of his rookie deal. But you said Hurst has to basically be the consensus best TE in the league, or else it's a disappointment. That's bullshit.

I'd say, Hurst needs to turn into a fairly reliable top-5 or -6 fantasy TE. But he doesn't have to be better than Gronk, Kelce et al to be a decent 1st-rd pick.

If Moore, Ridley or James turn out to be top level guys at their position....positions of need for us, I think its hard to accept Hurst in the 1st round unless he's truly elite, even more so when we drafted a second TE in the same weak draft class for TEs

[WNCRavensFan]

If Moore, Ridley or James turn out to be top level guys at their position....positions of need for us, I think its hard to accept Hurst in the 1st round unless he's truly elite, even more so when we drafted a second TE in the same weak draft class for TEs

It's also supposedly a weak draft for WRs. It'll all come out in the wash.

[GreatWhiteNorthRaven]

It's also supposedly a weak draft for WRs. It'll all come out in the wash.

That's the interesting part. We shouldn't have drafted two guys in a weak TE class, but we should have drafted two in a weak WR class.

Looking at the past drafts and where the irst WR's went in this draft....that's pretty tleling IMO.

And, as always, who the hell knows what will happen lol. Enjoy the ride folks!

[JimZipCode]

if you really liked jackson why risk losing him and not picking him at 25 or 16 or 22?
Does it show maybe they weren't to bothered if someone else took him?

Yes, this. I think they liked LJ but didn't REALLY want him. ...
Either the way the draft shook out in the 1st really surprised them somehow or they panicked, those are the only explanations I see.

I don't think it was panic at all. I think they had their board stacked a certain way, were content to trade back because they had several players rated similarly. I think they tried to trade back out of #25 but found no takers, so they took the top guy on their list. Then, when Jackson fell farther than the expected, they saw an opportunity and made a move they didn't think they would be able to make. I think they liked Jackson a lot but liked other guys better, and if Jackson was taken between 26-31 they would have been fine with keeping the picks they had. To me that's not a panic but rather shrewd action when an opportunity presented itself.

I think it's a little simpler than we're making it out to be. I think the, uh, intellectual difficulty we're running into is, reconciling the Hurst pick with the Jackson pick. I think the reason we're having trouble is, the Hurst pick and the Jackson pick were made using two different "processes". But if we zoom in on the processes, I think the explanation becomes straightforward.

Ozzie's normal process would be to take Derwin James, at either #16 or #22. Straight BPA; catch the falling diamond. That's what we've seen from him over and over thru the years: that's probably what many of us expected when #22 rolled around.
But the Ravens had a critical need this year, and a directive from ownership, to upgrade their passing attack. So Ozzie shifted into his "need" process.

The "need" process is not Ozzie's normal mode, but it is something we've seen from him before. Maybe 2008 is the best example. We had a need, and my understanding is that ownership had issued a directive, to get a "franchise QB". The two candidates were Ryan & Flacco. Ozzie explored trading up to Matt Ryan territory, but it was too expensive. So Flacco became the target. But Ozzie is value-obsessed; so he traded into the range (going down then up) where Flacco would be a reasonable "value" for the pick.

That's what we see with the Hurst pick, Ozzie using his "need" process. He had a directive from ownership to upgrade the passing attack. He had info from DaCosta or the analytics guys, that TEs tend to bust less often than WRs. And he had a middling crop of prospects. Probably the targets were DJ Moore and Hurst; and maybe a center. Moore because he's awesome, Hurst because he's probably the most pro-ready two-way TE in the draft. Perhaps not the best long-term prospect; but still a good prospect, and pro-ready, and two-way. And a center because the two prospects were very very good.

• At #16, all the targets are still on the board, Derwin is BPA, and the pick is too high for the targets to be good "value".

Ozzie trades back.

• At #22, the pass-catching targets are still on the board, though Derwin and the centers are gone.

Ozzie knows who the the Titans are going to pick, and still has two top targets on the board, so he trades back 3 more spots. This one seems risky to me, but they may have had intel on who the Pats were targeting. Or maybe they had another target in this batch, like Rashad Penny or Sony Michel. If they would have been happy to get DJ or Hurst or Penny with this middle-late first rounder, then the trade back is a lot less risky and makes more sense than it seemed on draft night.,

• At #25, DJ is off the board, one pass-catching target still there, along with Penny and other hypotheticals.

We've reached the sweet spot, the intersection of need and "value". This is around where Hurst was expected to go, so Ozzie pulls trigger on the most pro-ready two-way TE in the draft.

I wanted DJ more than a TE. I think DJ has a chance to wind up in the Hall of Fame. (Thank god he's in the other conference!) But you can make a strong case that Hurst will make more of an impact for Joe in 2018 than DJ would have:

— Depth. We have 3 first-string receivers; how fast does DJ break into that group?
— Need. We didn't have a first-string TE. The delta Hurst over our other TEs > DJ over Crab/Snead.
— Polish. DJ is young and a little raw; Hurst is 25 and pro-ready.
— Fit. Joe loves a TE; and this offense uses them.
— Analytics. The research that TEs bust less frequently than WRs.

Understand me: I don't love the pick. I think this is the kind of shit that happens when you draft for need, you wind up taking a polished 25yo with limited upside over a young potential Hall of Famer. It's not a position you want to be in. But we WERE in that position, so I can mount a solid defense of the pick. I also think we'll enjoy Thor as a player. Six years from now when DJ is All-Pro, and Hurst probably doesn't deserve a second contract, we'll just have to heave a collective sigh. Hopefully we've had playoff success in the intervening years, to justify choosing the immediate impact player over the long-term player.


But then a funny thing happens. Once the need is addressed, suddenly Ozzie is free to operate in his normal BPA mode. And Lamar is sitting there, potentially undervalued and potentially with high upside. So DaCosta & Ozzie have the conversation.


And that's why the two picks are tough to reconcile. Two different processes. Not "panic". Ozzie operates to fulfill the owner's instruction with the first pick, then at his own discretion for the second one.

[iceman43]

I think it's a little simpler than we're making it out to be. I think the, uh, intellectual difficulty we're running into is, reconciling the Hurst pick with the Jackson pick. I think the reason we're having trouble is, the Hurst pick and the Jackson pick were made using two different "processes". But if we zoom in on the processes, I think the explanation becomes straightforward.

Ozzie's normal process would be to take Derwin James, at either #16 or #22. Straight BPA; catch the falling diamond. That's what we've seen from him over and over thru the years: that's probably what many of us expected when #22 rolled around.
But the Ravens had a critical need this year, and a directive from ownership, to upgrade their passing attack. So Ozzie shifted into his "need" process.

The "need" process is not Ozzie's normal mode, but it is something we've seen from him before. Maybe 2008 is the best example. We had a need, and my understanding is that ownership had issued a directive, to get a "franchise QB". The two candidates were Ryan & Flacco. Ozzie explored trading up to Matt Ryan territory, but it was too expensive. So Flacco became the target. But Ozzie is value-obsessed; so he traded into the range (going down then up) where Flacco would be a reasonable "value" for the pick.

That's what we see with the Hurst pick, Ozzie using his "need" process. He had a directive from ownership to upgrade the passing attack. He had info from DaCosta or the analytics guys, that TEs tend to best less often than WRs. And he had a middling crop of prospects. Probably the targets were DJ Moore and Hurst; and maybe a center. Moore because he's awesome, Hurst because he's probably the most pro-ready two-way TE in the draft. Perhaps not the best long-term prospect; but still a good prospect, and pro-ready, and two-way. And a center because the two prospects were very very good.

• At #16, all the targets are still on the board, Derwin is BPA, and the pick is too high for the targets to be good "value".

Ozzie trades back.

• At #22, the pass-catching targets are still on the board, though Derwin and the centers are gone.

Ozzie knows who the the Titans are going to pick, and still has two top targets on the board, so he trades back 3 more spots. This one seems risky to me, but they may have had intel on who the Pats were targeting. Or maybe they had another target in this batch, like Rashad Penny or Sony Michel. If they would have been happy to get DJ or Hurst or Penny with this middle-late first rounder, then the trade back is a lot less risky and makes more sense than it seemed on draft night.,

• At #25, DJ is off the board, one pass-catching target still there, along with Penny and other hypotheticals.

We've reached the sweet spot, the intersection of need and "value". This is around where Hurst was expected to go, so Ozzie pulls trigger on the most pro-ready two-way TE in the draft.

I wanted DJ more than a TE. I think DJ has a chance to wind up in the Hall of Fame. (Thank god he's in the other conference!) But you can make a strong case that Hurst will make more of an impact for Joe in 2018 than DJ would have:

— Depth. We have 3 first-string receivers; how fast does DJ break into that group?
— Need. We did not have a first-string TE. The delta between Hurst and what we had is greater than DJ's over Crab/Snead.
— Polish. DJ is young and a little raw; Hurst is 25 and pro-ready.
— Fit. Joe loves a TE; and this offense uses them.
— Analytics. The research that TEs bust less frequently than WRs.

Understand me: I don't love the pick. I think this is the kind of shit that happens when you draft for need, you wind up taking a polished 25yo with limited upside over a young potential Hall of Famer. It's not a position you want to be in. But we WERE in that position, so I can mount a solid defense of the pick. I also think we'll enjoy Thor as a player. Six years from now when DJ is All-Pro, we'll just have to heave a collective sigh.


But then a funny thing happens. Once the need is addressed, suddenly Ozzie is free to operate in his normal BPA mode. And Lamar is sitting there, potentially undervalued and potentially with high upside. So DaCosta & Ozzie have the conversation.


And that's why the two picks are tough to reconcile. Two different processes. Not "panic". Ozzie operates to fulfill the owner's instruction with the first pick, then at his own discretion for the second one.

Yo this is spot on

[Shas]

1/25 –
The pick: Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina.

The rant: UGH, hate, hate, hate this pick. Yes, he’s a “solid” college player, but when you’re picking a TE in the first round, you’d better be getting a matchup problem that can stretch the field. He’s an average athlete for the modern position that I don’t think can stretch the field. He has very limited college production (which typically ain’t a good sign for NFL production). Some don’t see the big deal about his age. I think it’s an indicator of a lack of physical upside. And when you’re 25 as a rookie, the term “raw” should not appear anywhere close to your scouting report. Hurst is a willing blocker, but it’s raw as hell. So Ozzie took (IMO) an overaged, average athlete who’s raw as a blocker and can’t stretch the field, but is a system fit. That’s the profile of a guy you take in round 3, not round 1.

Should have been the pick: DJ Moore/Courtland Sutton/Calvin Ridley. You had the chance to take the top receiver in the draft and you traded down?!! James Daniels

I get it, you would have preferred a wide receiver. I might have, too. I liked Moore more than the other two WRs, personally. He was my guy and I let it be known many times.

But that really has nothing to do with what I think of Hurst. I understand DeCosta's line of reasoning that these receivers are way riskier. Corey Davis was my guy last year and he did nothing for the Titans as the fifth overall pick, battling Michael Campanaro flu allseason long. I see what teams that draft receivers well, like Pittsburgh and New England do, and they DON'T do is invest first round picks in receivers...they find guys who fit their system in the middle rounds.

So your critique of Hurst strikes me more as looking for reasons not to like the player because you're disappointed they passed on the receivers instead. It's sounding less like an objective assessment of Hurst and more like a hatchet job to support your subjective preference for any one of the top receivers.

ATHLETICISM. You are questioning Hurst's athleticism, but based on what? He and Andrews were in the top four in 40 times. Everyone describes the guy as "explosive" or "sudden" and cite it as the reason he was rated as a first rounder and Andrews was not. The only tight end more athletic than Hurst was Geisicki. Hurst will definitely be a match up problem in the middle of the field. And physically, he also has the height to make catches over top of people. His ability to run after the catch is second to none of the tight ends.

For that reason and others, Hurst has been compared to the other late-first-round TE selection of the Ravens, Todd Heap. They are certainly similar athletically. Per their combine results:

STAT	HEAP	HURST
HGT	6’4”	6’5”
WGT	252	250
ARM	33”	32.75”
HAND	9.5”	9.75”
40YD	4.68	4.67
VRT	32”	31.5”

Heap benched 22 reps at 225. Hurst didn't bench at the combine, but was reportedly the strongest guy on the team at USC, and legend is that he once benched 560.

PRODUCTION. You questioned Hurst's college production. That's fair. He loooks great tape on tape--zero drops as a senior--but the tape is limited because of the system he played in. But what about Moore as a WR? Only one season with more than 40 catches and 1000 yards--averaged less than one TD every two games in college. Like Hurst, Moore played in poor offenses and is simply a projection based on the athleticism they flashed on tape. Both catch everything and are spectacular running after the catch. Hurst wasn't a focal point of the offense, and his stats show it. Andrews has much better redzone stats, but look who was throwing him the ball.

AGE/RAW. And I don't buy the idea that age = lack of upside. I don't see the correlation. His upside is based on the amount of reps he's had in college, his talent and coachability--getting bigger and stronger from being in the weight room isn't what I'm looking for when I think about upside. First round picks should never lack physical credentials regardless of age. Guys who need to get into the weight room are mid-round picks, like Orlando Brown and Bradley Bozeman. If he was 25 and needed to develop in the weight room, okay. But the guy doesn't need to get any bigger or stronger--he's already there from day one. We don't need to expect more in that area from him.

All reports say he was one of the most coachable players at USC. If anything, the guy has MORE upside than anyone else. It's one of the main reasons he's a first rounder. He was a baseball player who switched sports and walked on at USC. He came to major college football late. You yourself labeled him raw. If he's raw, then by definition he he has a chance to hone skills.

Being 25 doesn't make a guy so old and worn out, particularly with limited reps, that it's too late to get better. Dennis Pitta was the same age when drafted and he got to the end of his first contract, and then sort of fell apart after getting a second.

If you don't like the pick because Hurst could be done after one contract, that's legit. But that's not an "upside" issue, it's a longevity issue.

But frankly, I reject the notion that he's raw. You tied rawness to him being merely a "willing blocker" blocker, but I think you're just twisting facts there. He's universally credited as being a very good, highly competitive in-line blocker and head and shoulders above the next three tight ends taken. Geisicki and Andrews are described as hopeless as blockers and Goedert as "inconsistent."

In summary, I don't see the flaws you've pointed to. I understand your preference for taking a high-risk/high-reward WR. But I also understand the front office not wanting to go that route. And I understand their wanting to surround Flacco with the type of players he's succeeded with in the past--that being a sure handed, move the chains tight end and a big-bodied, hard nosed receiver in Crabtree. And I understand giving Mornhengwig better talent at positions that are key to his system, namely tight end.

[JimZipCode]

Yo this is spot on

THAT's the kind of response a guy likes to hear! Thanks

[JimZipCode]

Heap benched 22 reps at 225. Hurst didn't bench at the combine, but was reportedly the strongest guy on the team at USC, and legend is that he once benched 560.

Do we know why Hurst didn't bench? Was there an injury or strain he was protecting?

This article:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...round-nfl-pick

says that at South Carolina:

Hurst worked out with weights twice daily and went from 225 pounds to 250. His maximum bench press went from 250 to 405. Muschamp says anytime the weight room was open, he knew where to find Hurst.

I looked at a couple of those one-rep-max calculators online. I couldn't find one that would allow you to enter 22 reps: most only go up to ten. But I found one that went up to 20.

https://www.muscleandstrength.com/to...ess-calculator

According to that, 20 reps at 225# equates to a 364# one-rep-max. If Hurst is benching 405, then that's stronger than Heap was, coming out. I don't know how that would project to reps at 225, but it should be at least a couple more than Heap got.

Being 25 doesn't make a guy so old and worn out, particularly with limited reps, that it's too late to get better. Dennis Pitta was the same age when drafted

I don't really have anything to add, I just wanted to highlight that. Pitta had 3 high-level productive seasons, plus more seasons as a contributor. He had limited upside as an athlete; but Hurst is a better athlete coming out than Pitta was.

If that defines the "range" for Hurst — a floor of Pitta, a ceiling of Heap — than that seems like a solid range for a high-drafted TE. I'd rather have Kellen Winslow Sr: sure, absolutely. But if Hurst has something like Heap's productivity along with a smidge more than Pitta's longevity; that will be high-impact to us for the next few years.

I understand your preference for taking a high-risk/high-reward WR. But I also understand the front office not wanting to go that route. And I understand their wanting to surround Flacco with the type of players he's succeeded with in the past--that being a sure handed, move the chains tight end and a big-bodied, hard nosed receiver in Crabtree. And I understand giving Mornhengwig better talent at positions that are key to his system, namely tight end.

Yes. Hurst probly makes a bigger positive impact for this offense in Year One than any of the wideouts. Esp since we already have Crab-Snead-Brown on the roster.

It's not the kind of thinking we normally do with first rounders. We usually take a great long-term player, even if he may duplicate a strong position in Year One, find a place for him on the roster and let him define our team for the next dozen years. (See: Ogden, Jonathan) But we also don't usually go into a draft with such an extreme need, such a glaring hole on an otherwise-strong roster, and a directive from the owner. It's reasonable.

[GreatWhiteNorthRaven]

I've watched a few games with Hurst on it (and draft breakdown type videos - not highlight videos). I just don't see the whole "Hayden Hurst can't block well" narrative that is going around.

He gets the job done. A lot.

if anyone can throw me some tape references to where this is being seen I'd love to see it becuase I just don't see it. BTW South Carolina's running back doesn't know hwo to read an OL and make a cut. It's nuts.

[leachisabeast]

Just a lot of bitching and moaning from the same people who bitched and moaned about the Humphrey pick last year. The FO are going to need to be picking in the top 10 on a truly outstanding reciever in the future to go WR IMO after Clayton and Perrimen. Corey Davis a msg board darling has done nothing so far in the league, and everyone is now so sure Ridley and DJ Moore are going to be all pros? I can see Moore being a good WR, I think Ridley isn't going to be physical enough to be a good #2 let alone a #1. Hurst imo was the safest and best bet out of all players available at that pick to become a good NFL pro for all the reasons shas highlighted.