The QB contract bubble

[Mizerooskie]

I've written before on here about how ridiculous quarterback contracts were getting around the league, and how this was a bubble just waiting to be burst. There simply aren't enough truly special quarterbacks in the league that are worth the debilitating cap hits associated with a typical contract.

Now here we are in Conference Championship week, and we've got three QBs on rookie (Bortles) or cheap (Keenum, Foles) deals. (and the QB that really got the Eagles there is also on his rookie deal).

Having a QB on a manageable contract has allowed these teams to strengthen everywhere else (e.g., Jackson and Campbell through free agency), and I contend that is the biggest reason why they've reached this stage.

Let's take a look at the QB's with the highest cap hits in the league, and how their teams faired this season:

Matt Stafford: 9-7, missed playoffs
Derek Carr: 6-10, missed playoffs
Joe Flacco: 9-7, missed playoffs
Andrew Luck: 4-12, missed playoffs (obviously a bit of an outlier due to his injury)
Russell Wilson: 9-7, missed playoffs
Ben Roethlisberger: 13-3. lost in divisional round
Eli Manning: 3-13, missed playoffs
Tom Brady: 13-3, still alive in playoffs
Phillip Rivers: 9-7, missed playoffs
Matt Ryan: 10-6, lost in divisional round

One would think, in a league where half the teams make the playoffs, and where QB is purported to be such an important position, more than 3 of the top-10 highest paid QBs would have made the playoffs.

These QB contracts are terrible roster management, and if you don't nail the draft, you're setting your team back by giving them out. The talk of $30M/year QB deals are utter insanity. I think in most cases you're better off finding journeymen to fit your system and drafting developmental QBs every few years. Spend the money on an elite offensive coaching staff, and beefing up other positions.

What say you? Is the QB contract market a bubble waiting to burst?

[alien bird]

I've written before on here about how ridiculous quarterback contracts were getting around the league, and how this was a bubble just waiting to be burst. There simply aren't enough truly special quarterbacks in the league that are worth the debilitating cap hits associated with a typical contract.

Now here we are in Conference Championship week, and we've got three QBs on rookie (Bortles) or cheap (Keenum, Foles) deals. (and the QB that really got the Eagles there is also on his rookie deal).

Having a QB on a manageable contract has allowed these teams to strengthen everywhere else (e.g., Jackson and Campbell through free agency), and I contend that is the biggest reason why they've reached this stage.

Let's take a look at the QB's with the highest cap hits in the league, and how their teams faired this season:

Matt Stafford: 9-7, missed playoffs
Derek Carr: 6-10, missed playoffs
Joe Flacco: 9-7, missed playoffs
Andrew Luck: 4-12, missed playoffs (obviously a bit of an outlier due to his injury)
Russell Wilson: 9-7, missed playoffs
Ben Roethlisberger: 13-3. lost in divisional round
Eli Manning: 3-13, missed playoffs
Tom Brady: 13-3, still alive in playoffs
Phillip Rivers: 9-7, missed playoffs
Matt Ryan: 10-6, lost in divisional round

One would think, in a league where half the teams make the playoffs, and where QB is purported to be such an important position, more than 3 of the top-10 highest paid QBs would have made the playoffs.

These QB contracts are terrible roster management, and if you don't nail the draft, you're setting your team back by giving them out. The talk of $30M/year QB deals are utter insanity. I think in most cases you're better off finding journeymen to fit your system and drafting developmental QBs every few years. Spend the money on an elite offensive coaching staff, and beefing up other positions.

What say you? Is the QB contract market a bubble waiting to burst?

Only 12 of the 32 teams (37.5%) make the playoffs, so it's not quite the 50% you state. Therefore, to make your argument more valid (and you do have a good argument), you should include QBs #11 and #12 on the cap hit list. Also, you seem to be using 2018 cap hits - a season that has yet to be played. You should be using 2017 cap hits to analyze the impact more accurately.

[Ravenswintitle]

I've made an argument on here that you should draft a QB every 3 or 4 years and continue to rotate. I'd love to see a team take that approach but the fact that 2 of the guys playing are backups shows you you need a solid D and good skills players to pull it off. Maybe a great D.

[JonAB]

I think spending the big money on QB only works if you have Aaron Rodgers level. You’d think the results we’ve gotten from giving Joe the huge deal would have given more executives caution to give out a big deals but it hasn’t happened. Don’t know if it will. QB is still by far the most important position on the field and this years current situation is more of an outlier than the norm.

In the end the situation is still that there’s too many teams and not enough good QBs to go around so the mid level guys will continue to get paid above their actual contribution to the team while a guy like Rodgers will continue to play above his pay.

[JonAB]

also I’ll add that Jacksonville was able to add so many big names because they saved up cap space over the last 5 years of being terrible, they’re now running out and are on the road to big time cap problems in the future.

[NC Raven]

I've made an argument on here that you should draft a QB every 3 or 4 years and continue to rotate. I'd love to see a team take that approach but the fact that 2 of the guys playing are backups shows you you need a solid D and good skills players to pull it off. Maybe a great D.

I think that's the best way -- maybe even every 2 years, so when one guy walks, the other has had 2 years in the system and a decent chance to step in. At least that way you have some leverage in the negotiation. You can at least make a conscious decision on whether or not to pay a fortune, rather than being left with no realistic option.

[Mizerooskie]

also I’ll add that Jacksonville was able to add so many big names because they saved up cap space over the last 5 years of being terrible, they’re now running out and are on the road to big time cap problems in the future.

If they let Bortles walk, that's a boatload of wiggle room.

[Mizerooskie]

Only 12 of the 32 teams (37.5%) make the playoffs, so it's not quite the 50% you state. Therefore, to make your argument more valid (and you do have a good argument), you should include QBs #11 and #12 on the cap hit list. Also, you seem to be using 2018 cap hits - a season that has yet to be played. You should be using 2017 cap hits to analyze the impact more accurately.

Fair points. I arbitrarily cut off at the top 10, but I don't think it changes the general thrust. I also didn't intend to use 2018 cap hits, but I think they're still relevant, given those cap hits still hamstring what contracts a team can give out for a few years prior.

For me, the most compelling example to show how unsustainable the contracts have become is Seattle. They locked up a guy, who's easily a top-5 QB in the league that has taken them to two Super Bowls, to kind of a standard QB deal. As a direct result, they've had a talent drain (notably Okung, Carpenter, Sweezy, Irvin) that has made them worse year on year.

[Ravenstatsman]

Okung and Sweezy all left after the 2015 season and Carpenter after 2014, when Wilson's contract wasn't bad at all. And the Carpenter and Sweezy contracts really weren't that expensive, but even if they matched them it really wouldn't have made a difference since they have been injured.

Not a very good example. I understand the premise that teams might be better off bargain hunting for QB's, but IMO it is probably an outlier this year that a three mediocre QB made it to the conference championship this year.

[JonAB]

If they let Bortles walk, that's a boatload of wiggle room.

Yep, but I think we’re really glossing over how hard it is to even get adequate QB play from the draft or veteran stopgaps. Foles shouldn’t even be in the conversation because Wentz got them there and you need either a top 3 pick or give up a crazy amount of assets to get a prospect like him. Jville had a nice year but I think, much like the 2000-2007 Ravens, will have a hard time winning year in and year out without an established QB.

[Goode05]

It's an anomaly who were the 4 qbs playing this time last year? Ben Brady Rodgers Ryan



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[JonAB]

It's an anomaly who were the 4 qbs playing this time last year? Ben Brady Rodgers Ryan



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And Manning (albeit not the manning of old but still a high cap hit), Brady, Newton and Palmer year before.