When did player evaluations start to go south?

**HotInHere** · 01-11-2018, 03:55 PM

Originally Posted by sawraven1

You can say Savage impacted the Browns too, they had some of their better years. They drafted Joe Thomas, Braylon Edwards, Eric WRight, Brady Quinn during his short stint. His final year there he traded away half his draft to acquire Brady Quinn. Who could have been a decent talent but the Browns were run even more poorly than they are today.

Joe Thomas certainly. And Wright was a decent enough player for a second round pick.

But Edwards and Quinn were not good picks at all. Edwards was picked third overall. He had one good year in his entire career. And it's not like he went somewhere else and became great either. He was out of the league before he turned 30. But in that draft, the Browns, who desperately needed a QB in that draft, decided not to take Aaron Rodgers.

And Quinn? I have no idea why you think he could have been a decent talent. If he was at all good, you would think he might have gone to some other team and at least have been able to play as a backup. He was incredibly inaccurate, and couldn't even beat out other scrubs in Cleveland for the starting job.

I certainly wouldn't point to those two as successes for Savage in Cleveland.

**sawraven1** · 01-11-2018, 04:00 PM

Originally Posted by GreenWave52

Reviewing the last decade of Ravens drafts is painful. It is shocking we are as competitive as we have been given our picks.

2007 was the last time we had a draft with multiple pro bowlers (with most every year before that featuring at least 1) and it fell off a cliff after 2008. The only true pro bowler on the Ravens drafted in the last 10 drafts is Mosley. That is garbage.

I tried googling to see if their were any personnel departures but nothing really came up. I wonder if Savage took some of the better scouts to Cle. Or my suspicion, and the Ravens have hinted at this over the years, is that we out drafted teams by our working them. We had a large scouting department and went to more games than other teams. With the spread of cheap digital video that advantage has been erased.

I would be curious where we stack up against other team’s drafts over the last decade. We are at best 3rd in our own division.

I still have faith in this FO, but I’m starting to question how deserved that is and how much is resting on success from over 10 years ago. I used to love draft weekend as we got guys I was excited about, but more and more I find myself scratching my head or upset at our picks.

It has been multiple Scouting department changes. In 2008 when Harbaugh got here there were 4-5 new scouts that came in. Not sure why the others left, or what happened but it was talked about before.

We lost out 2 head scouts like 4 years ago, they went to the Bears, and are now with the Eagles. Joe Douglas, Andy Weidel, then like a year ago Ian Cunningham. All are now employed with the Eagles who are one of the best teams in football. Had not Wenzt be injured this year i think looking at their first superbowl title.

**GreenWave52** · 01-11-2018, 04:04 PM

Originally Posted by GreenWave52

With 36 picks from 2012-2015, 4 drafts, the Ravens only selected these useful starting* players: Upshaw, Osemele, Juzczyk, Williams, Wagner, Jensen, Mosley, Jernigan. Of which only Williams and Mosley are definitely on the team next year. So in 4 years, 36 picks, we have 1 Pro-bowl Raven LB and a very good run stopping DT to show for it. Everyone else was a JAG or bust.

If our strategy is to build from the draft that means we had a 22% hit rate for starters and a 5% long term success rate from 2012-2015. It is hard to be that bad.

*I'm stretching the definition of starting for Upshaw and Jernigan, but they were more than JAG contributors.

Originally Posted by sawraven1

It has been multiple Scouting department changes. In 2008 when Harbaugh got here there were 4-5 new scouts that came in. Not sure why the others left, or what happened but it was talked about before.

We lost out 2 head scouts like 4 years ago, they went to the Bears, and are now with the Eagles. Joe Douglas, Andy Weidel, then like a year ago Ian Cunningham. All are now employed with the Eagles who are one of the best teams in football. Had not Wenzt be injured this year i think looking at their first superbowl title.

Yea, the Eagles turned it around in a hurry. They felt like the one NFC team that could beat the Pats/Steelers (maybe NOLA too?). I remember Douglas leaving, but the drafting had already turned before that. I wonder if the guys who cam in with Harbaugh just aren't very good?

**WNCRavensFan** · 01-11-2018, 04:16 PM

Originally Posted by GreenWave52

If our strategy is to build from the draft that means we had a 22% hit rate for starters and a 5% long term success rate from 2012-2015. It is hard to be that bad.

Yeah, pretty much. It's funny how we used to point to Elam and Brown being the biggest busts and yet 2013 was the best draft of the four by far.

I would not call KO a "JAG" for the Ravens but he, like Jernigan improved on another team. That's unfortunate.

**WNCRavensFan** · 01-11-2018, 04:18 PM

Originally Posted by sawraven1

It has been multiple Scouting department changes. In 2008 when Harbaugh got here there were 4-5 new scouts that came in. Not sure why the others left, or what happened but it was talked about before.

We lost out 2 head scouts like 4 years ago, they went to the Bears, and are now with the Eagles. Joe Douglas, Andy Weidel, then like a year ago Ian Cunningham. All are now employed with the Eagles who are one of the best teams in football. Had not Wenzt be injured this year i think looking at their first superbowl title.

True - that's really where the heart of the matter lies, at the bottom level. Good point.

**HbgPARavenfan** · 01-11-2018, 04:25 PM

2013 and beyond.

Seemingly the same time Barbs got more sway to put his slimy imprint on the team.

**HotInHere** · 01-11-2018, 04:30 PM

Originally Posted by WNCRavensFan

Yeah, pretty much. It's funny how we used to point to Elam and Brown being the biggest busts and yet 2013 was the best draft of the four by far.

I would not call KO a "JAG" for the Ravens but he, like Jernigan improved on another team. That's unfortunate.

'12 and '15 were the only really bad drafts.

'13 you got BWill, Juice, Wagner, and Jensen. That's four players who are all right now in the top 10 in the NFL at their positions. Any team would take that haul for one draft.

And '14 has just been snakebit with injuries and the Urschel retirement. Camp, Urban, Gillmore, and Urschel are all legit NFL players. Plus you got Mosley and Jernigan in that draft, which is a solid 1st/2nd rounds.

We haven't had much of a problem getting a number of solid contributing players out of our drafts. The problem has been a lack of superstars. We used to get one every other year. But the last one we actually drafted was Ray Rice. There is nothing to build around right now.

**sawraven1** · 01-11-2018, 04:41 PM

Originally Posted by WNCRavensFan

True - that's really where the heart of the matter lies, at the bottom level. Good point.

Here is the info on the Raven Scouts.

Joe Hortiz (1998-2017)
Milt Hendrickson (2005-2017)
Lonnie Young (2008-2017)
David Blackburn (2007-2017)
Andrew Raphael (2013-2017)
Brandon Bernig (2015-2017)
Dwaune Jones (2016-2017)
Kevin Weidl (2017)

Here are Longtime scouts who departed for the Eagles few years ago
Joe Douglas (2000-2015)
Andy Weidl (2005-2016)
Ian Cunningham (2008-2016)

**sawraven1** · 01-11-2018, 04:46 PM

Originally Posted by HotInHere

'12 and '15 were the only really bad drafts.

'13 you got BWill, Juice, Wagner, and Jensen. That's four players who are all right now in the top 10 in the NFL at their positions. Any team would take that haul for one draft.

And '14 has just been snakebit with injuries and the Urschel retirement. Camp, Urban, Gillmore, and Urschel are all legit NFL players. Plus you got Mosley and Jernigan in that draft, which is a solid 1st/2nd rounds.

We haven't had much of a problem getting a number of solid contributing players out of our drafts. The problem has been a lack of superstars. We used to get one every other year. But the last one we actually drafted was Ray Rice. There is nothing to build around right now.

Yeah but take a look at the drafts and the players you are mentioning (Jensen, Wagner, Kyle Jusczyk) were all late round picks. Those are the marginal players who are not usually expected to start right away yet did, and greatly out performed the Busts we picked in the early rounds.

The early round picks are not panning out. That is what the killer is. Those are the guys who we expect to be pro bowlers, immediate impact guys and are not

Look at last two years (Corera, Kafusi, Bowswer, Williams ) are not even active for games.

**Raven1998** · 01-11-2018, 06:19 PM

But did the scouts who departed after 2012 do so because Hardballs got power and picked mighty men for special teams instead of studs.

**Iamjacks** · 01-11-2018, 07:32 PM

Originally Posted by Raven1998

But did the scouts who departed after 2012 do so because Hardballs got power and picked mighty men for special teams instead of studs.

It's likely that they were poached and given better pay and higher status /positions.

**BcRaven** · 01-11-2018, 08:05 PM

Originally Posted by moose10101

I can't identify a start date, but I think it happened because they read all the press clippings about how well they drafted and how smart they were, and thought that meant they could make "clever" picks instead of solid ones.

moose, your post reminds me of Occam's razor. "It is a principle from philosophy. Suppose there exist two explanations for an occurrence. In this case the simpler one is usually better. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation is."
So if the Ravens/Ozzie just stuck to the standard BPA, instead of getting "cute", we'd have a better influx of talent... Bc