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  1. #1
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    AFC Playoff Picture, revisited



    With Miami's definitive loss at Carolina behind us, every AFC team has now played at least nine games. The Ravens sit at a mediocre 4-5, coming off a bye week, and will play a horribly depleted Green Bay team. Projections have them as favorites for the 6th seed.

    I was wrong, of course I was wrong, when I said 10-6 might miss the playoffs in the AFC at the start of the season. In order for that to happen now, a team at 4-5 like the Ravens would have to win out, 7-0, plus ANOTHER team at 4-5 would have to go 6-1, or the Bills at 5-4 would have to go 5-2.

    The AFC is awful. This is because the NFC has throttled them in games this season. Look at the standing and you can see the current seeds are stronger by record in the NFC.

    - Pittsburgh is 7-2 with the current tie break over the 4-5 Ravens. They're winning the division barring a monumental collapse. They are focusing on the #1 seed at this point.

    - New England is 7-2 and haven't played the 5-4 Bills yet. They aren't quite the lock Pittsburgh is, but c'mon they're the Patriots, there's not much to analyze.

    - Kansas City hasn't played as well lately, but they're still 6-3 and they have games left vs the Giants, Bills, Jets, Chargers and Dolphins. Will be difficult to see them any worse than 10-6.

    ....so I'm not going to focus on them. We're trying to see what it may take for the Ravens to make the playoffs. toss ups I'll count as half a win

    JACKSONVILLE (6-3)
    @ CLE - win
    @ ARZ - probably a win
    vs IND - at home, win
    vs SEA - toss up
    vs HOU - win
    @ SF - maybe a road loss but, win
    @ TEN - for the division? toss up
    PROJECTED (12-4)

    TENNESSEE (6-3)
    @ PIT - loss
    @ IND - depends on drama in Indy...
    vs HOU - win
    @ ARZ - should be a win
    @ SF - win
    vs LAR - loss
    vs JAX - again, for the division?
    PROJECTED (10-6)

    BUFFALO (5-4)
    @ LAC - toss up
    @ KC - loss
    vs NE - loss
    vs IND - win
    vs MIA - win
    @ NE - loss
    @ MIA - toss up
    PROJECTED (8-8)

    BALTIMORE (4-5)
    @ GRB - toss up
    vs HOU - better be a win
    vs DET - toss up
    @ PIT - loss
    @ CLE - better be a win
    vs IND - better be a win
    vs CIN - better be a win
    PROJECTED (9-7)

    OAKLAND (4-5)
    vs NE - loss
    vs DEN - win
    vs NYG - win
    @ KC - gonna say loss here, but... ok toss up
    vs DAL - toss up
    @ PHI - loss
    @ LAC - win
    PROJECTED (8-8)

    MIAMI (4-5)
    vs TB - I'll say win
    @ NE - annihilation
    vs DEN - toss up
    vs NE - loss
    @ BUF - loss
    @ KC - loss
    vs BUF - toss up
    PROJECTED (6-10)

    NEW YORK JETS (4-6)
    vs CAR - toss up
    vs KC - toss up
    @ DEN - toss up
    @ NO - loss
    vs LAC - toss up
    @ NE - loss... if the Patriots are playing for the 1 seed
    PROJECTED (6-10)

    HOUSTON TEXANS (3-6)
    vs ARZ - win
    @ BAL - better be a loss
    @ TEN - loss
    vs SF - win
    @ JAX - loss
    vs PIT - loss
    @ IND - eh.... win
    PROJECTED (6-10)

    LA CHARGERS (3-6)
    vs BUF - toss up
    @ DAL - loss
    vs CLE - win
    vs WAS - toss up
    @ KC - loss
    @ NYJ - toss up
    vs OAK - loss
    PROJECTED (5 or 6 wins)

    DENVER BRONCOS (3-6)
    vs CIN - toss up
    @ OAK - loss
    @ MIA - toss up
    vs NYJ - toss up
    @ IND - toss up
    @ WAS - toss up
    vs KC - toss up
    PROJECTED (6-10) highly variable

    CINCINNATI BENGLAZ (3-6)
    @ DEN - toss up
    vs CLE - win
    vs PIT - win
    vs CHI - toss up
    @ MIN - loss
    vs DET - toss up
    @ BAL - better be a loss
    PROJECTED (6 or 7 wins)
    -----------------------------------------------------
    If every game goes down this way (which, OF COURSE they won't), your playoffs would look like this
    DIVISON WINNERS - New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Kansas City
    WILD CARD1 - Tennessee (10-6)
    WILD CARD2 - Baltimore (9-7)
    OUT - Buffalo (8-8), Oakland (8-8)

    In my opinion, the Ravens MUST WIN the final three games of the year. These will be against teams ravaged by poor records and coaching changes (or impending ones at least). Or the Ravens can also pack it in, and hand the second Wild Card to someone who wants it. In that case there's a very good chance an 8-8 team makes the playoffs.

    But even if the Ravens achieve a Wild Card seed, are they really going to make any noise in the playoffs? This is a team that was accustomed to winning road playoff games. But most of those players are now gone. How in the world is this team going to win in Jacksonville or Kansas City, much less Pittsburgh or New England? Well, I am of the opinion that you always have a chance - and you have zero chance if you miss the playoffs altogether.

    All thoughts / debate (okay, most of them) are welcome. Go ahead, rip my projections to shreds. Tell me you don't want to see the Ravens make the playoffs. Where do you really see this season headed?





  2. #2
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    Re: AFC Playoff Picture, revisited

    Just get in and its a whole different ball game. Especially with our team.

    I dont care how bad weve looked at times this season... everyone should be hopeful that we make the play offs because who knows what will happen there.





  3. #3
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    Re: AFC Playoff Picture, revisited

    There's going to be a bad team that makes it in the Afc. And there's probably two or three good teams that miss the NFC


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk





  4. #4
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    Re: AFC Playoff Picture, revisited

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    Just get in and its a whole different ball game. Especially with our team.

    I dont care how bad weve looked at times this season... everyone should be hopeful that we make the play offs because who knows what will happen there.
    This.

    The Second Season is a whole different animal and there is no way to know who can pull something out of their buttocks and shock a team or teams that look like they should cruise to the Super Bowl.

    My problem is that if they made it to the Playoffs I would approach each game with a sense of doom and not enjoy the moment. I have been numbed by their performances this year and will not expect them to beat anybody at any level.
    Captain Offense





  5. #5
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    Re: AFC Playoff Picture, revisited

    January Joe is usually a badass. Just have to get to January





  6. #6
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    Re: AFC Playoff Picture, revisited

    I dont like Ten as much as you do, i think theyll be fighting for a playoff spot more than a division. I like Oakland more than them, but their division record is worse. Denver really is a toss up, they get even half decent QB play and theyll be right back in the thick of things.

    i see a muddy mess of 8-8 and 9-7 teams with tie breakers likely deciding the wild cards. Ten has one on us, we have one on Oakland. the bills have a lot of AFC games to play, mostly against the Pats. between us 4, which is what i think itll be, I got us and Ten. I also think of those 4 teams we have the most ability to right the ship so to speak. our run defense is usually dominant, it hasnt been. thats correctable. Our offense is atrocious. anything is better than what weve been doing. thats two major areas with minimal improvement, even likely imo, will enhance are chances of winning greatly. I have high hopes for a focused team coming out of the bye.
    -JAB





  7. #7
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    Re: AFC Playoff Picture, revisited

    The hope is that Woodhead returns and stays healthy. Maclin, Wallace and Watson stay healthy. The O-line doesn't lose anyone else for more than a couple of games. Suddenly the Ravens have an offense for the first time this year against a weak schedule. It's certainly possible if they get a little luck.

    Of this group fighting for the 6th seed the Raiders have the best team but the hardest schedule.

    The Texans and Broncos can't win enough without a QB

    The Bengals, Chargers and Dolphins seem to be in free fall. These are not teams that will have an easy time turning it around.

    That leaves us the Bills and Jets. One of these teams is going to go on a run and get to at least 8 wins which could be enough. I also think the Raiders have the talent to beat some of those tougher teams on their schedule and make it 4 teams for 1 spot

    By the way the Saints are winning the Super Bowl





  8. #8
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    Re: AFC Playoff Picture, revisited

    Quote Originally Posted by GOTA View Post
    By the way the Saints are winning the Super Bowl
    I think theyre the best team nobody is talking about. They can pass obviously, but they can also run and with little fan fare their defense is playing really well (top 5). They have explosive playmakers. I know we talked about Kamara before, but he really continues to impress me. hes a spark plug.
    -JAB





  9. #9
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    Re: AFC Playoff Picture, revisited

    Quote Originally Posted by GOTA View Post
    By the way the Saints are winning the Super Bowl
    I put money on them Labor Day weekend in Vegas as a throw away bet. Not looking too shabby at the moment.





  10. #10
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    Re: AFC Playoff Picture, revisited

    Great post, BTW. I think WNCR presents a good argument for the Ravens making the playoffs. Hard to believe that as bad as they have been at times, they are essentially only a game out of the WC2 spot.





  11. #11

    Re: AFC Playoff Picture, revisited

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    Just get in and its a whole different ball game. Especially with our team.

    I dont care how bad weve looked at times this season... everyone should be hopeful that we make the play offs because who knows what will happen there.
    I truly appreciate your optimism. At times I wish I had some of that but quite frankly I don't. You can polish a turd but its still a piece of sh** and that is what we are stuck with right now.

    If this 8-8 team, even 7-9 team squeaks into the play offs you can kiss any chance of seeing coaching changes which damn near majority of everyone on this board is finally in agreement with now is the root cause of this problem.

    STeve B will reward Harbaugh for job well done and Not 1 team in the league will come calling to hire Pees or MM for their services. I can guarantee you that much!.

    If they make the playoffs of course I will be happy but I look at the long game, and the long game says changes are in order for this team to actually get better





  12. #12
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    Re: AFC Playoff Picture, revisited

    I think the Ravens are going to find themselves in trouble against Green Bay and that will really put them in too much of a hole to get out of, even with a weak conference.
    "Please take with you this final sword, The Excellector. I am praying that your journey will be guided by the light", Leon Shore





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