"10 Picks in 10 Games" as an Argument

**wickedsolo** · 10-03-2017, 10:06 AM

Folks - if you are using this as the baseline for your "Flacco Sucks" argument, stop. You need to find a better data point to support your argument. All you're doing is making yourself look foolish because it shows a significant lack of understanding or, perhaps, you just flat out didn't watch any of the last 10 games.

How many of those 10 interceptions were the cause of a receiver running the wrong route or, worse, the receiver tipping the pass up in the air and having it picked off by the opposition? I can think of at least 2 right off the top of my head from this season (Maclin and West). Those aren't Flacco's fault, yet some are using it as the primary reason for why Flacco sucks.

Believe me, there are SEVERAL reasons why he's not worth the contract he's being paid and he certainly has made his fair share (more, actually) of "WTF?!" throws. However, the "10 Picks in 10 Games" meme is based on false premise.

**I Touchdown There** · 10-03-2017, 10:18 AM

well said

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**cvilleRaven** · 10-03-2017, 10:24 AM

A non-Flacco example:

Does anyone really think that Roethlisberger should be held accountable for Weddle's interception on Sunday? I mean, the ball was in the receiver's hands, and he was on the ground. If not for bobbling the ball (only visible on replay), it's a completed pass and down by contact. Instead, it was half a reflexive whistle blow from a pick-6.

Meanwhile, an example of a WTF moment:

Flacco throws on the run to a smothered receiver and the ball goes right to the defender, who had been in better position to catch the ball than the receiver ever was. That one was inexcusable.

**bravens23** · 10-03-2017, 10:27 AM

Well, just looking at my math, I don't really see how this is any different than what he normally was.

Starting from 2015 (around the time we saw the shift towards "throw it a ton" offense), Joe's played 30 games. He has 1,203 attempts in those 30 games, which comes out to 40 attempts per game on average.

His career INT rate is 1 per 39.5 attempts in the regular season, which means if he's averaging 40 attempts per game for the last 2+ years, I would expect him, on average, to throw an INT every game.

So if I expect him to throw an INT every game on average, how can I be surprised if he goes 10 straight with one?

**QuothDaRaven** · 10-03-2017, 10:31 AM

You're right. If you use that argument you didn't watch the games. He didn't throw 10 picks in 10 games. He's thrown 12.

The truth is we don't know how many were because the receiver ran the wrong route or because Flacco threw to the wrong spot. And we don't know how many of those tipped passes were because he lacked the touch to take some heat of the ball so it didn't come in at 100mph and ricochet, or he placed the ball inaccurately so it went off someone's shoulder pad or helmet or hip, vs actual realistically catchable balls.

You make a good point, and yes, there are many (MANY) other stats and reasons you can use to show why Joe Flacco has become a shell of his former self and a mostly mediocre and highly inconsistent QB. But just as much as 10 picks in 10 games can be very misleading (it's actually 12 picks in the last 10 games, and 17 picks in the last 14 games) and not all Flacco's fault, it also isn't exactly a great statistic to have and is just another black eye for a team reeling with them.

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**Ravenswintitle** · 10-03-2017, 10:32 AM

He has the longest consecutive interception streak in the NFL and it continues each game. How is that not relevant? Those turnovers are killers.

**Bhcforlife** · 10-03-2017, 10:39 AM

I understand what you are saying, but I don't think you can outright disregard it either. As far as I know he's the only QB at 10 games straight with an INT, right? I wouldn't use it as the basis for an argument that he's playing poorly, but I can see using it as part of your overall argument. I think it speaks to an overall issue with the offense and how poorly coached they are, because some of the picks are definitely on the receivers and other players either bobbling balls or wrong routes, whatever, as you said. That falls on coaching. But hey, when they preached continuity they weren't kidding.

**wickedsolo** · 10-03-2017, 10:41 AM

Originally Posted by bravens23

Well, just looking at my math, I don't really see how this is any different than what he normally was.

Starting from 2015 (around the time we saw the shift towards "throw it a ton" offense), Joe's played 30 games. He has 1,203 attempts in those 30 games, which comes out to 40 attempts per game on average.

His career INT rate is 1 per 39.5 attempts in the regular season, which means if he's averaging 40 attempts per game for the last 2+ years, I would expect him, on average, to throw an INT every game.

So if I expect him to throw an INT every game on average, how can I be surprised if he goes 10 straight with one?

Because you're missing the context of that INT. It's an inaccurate assessment.

**bravens23** · 10-03-2017, 10:42 AM

Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

He has the longest consecutive interception streak in the NFL and it continues each game. How is that not relevant? Those turnovers are killers.

I think the "weak" part of the argument is the number of consecutive games. I don't think that's relevant.

If he throws 12 in 10 games, does it really matter how they came? If its 2 a game for 6 games and 0 for another 6 games, why is that really any different?

And again, if you do the math taking into account what he has been his entire career, the expectation, based on recent passing volume, is that he's going to throw 16 INTs per full season. So that's 1 per game.

To me... that's the expectation. This idea that he's going to throw it 550-600 times and only throw like 10 INTs isn't realistic.

**Ravenswintitle** · 10-03-2017, 10:42 AM

If you want to talk about "significant lack of understanding" just see games like last Sunday. Turnover in the red zone. Defense has to go right back out on the field with their heels in the end zone. Pitt scores and Ravens fans talk about how the defense sucks. What sucks is the turnover

**wickedsolo** · 10-03-2017, 10:43 AM

Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

He has the longest consecutive interception streak in the NFL and it continues each game. How is that not relevant? Those turnovers are killers.

Turnovers are killers regardless of how they happen - no one is arguing against that.

I'm just seeing a lot of folks repeating what the announcers said during the game as if that is some finalized proof of something. It's not an accurate assessment of the situation.

**Jsmoove** · 10-03-2017, 10:45 AM

http://www.nfl.com/stats/headtohead?...our=Cam+Newton I'll just leave this here...people not sayng he sucks because they hate him no one "hates" Joe he is a good guy, great father, outstanding teammate....he sucks because his play on field sucks and there are numbers all over the place to prove it..here is Flacco compared to 4 of his peers so far this season. People crucify Andy Dalton on this board, when we have this guys who is worse.