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05-19-2017, 11:53 AM #183Hall Of Fame Poster
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Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?
I'm going to go against the grain and say that not treating WR as a top team priority is generally OK. You can win without game-breaking WRs.
But you can't de-prioritize WR, OL, and RB ALL, as the Ravens have. Plenty of teams won Super Bowls with pass-catchers who were just good enough. But IMO OL is the bedrock of a football team. With it, your QB has time to find SOMEONE who will eventually get open, especially if the defense is sneaking a safety up because you're also running the ball well. With a bad OL you have constant 3 and outs, a tired defense, and a team that can't answer the inevitable busted coverage or STs TD.
It's no coincidence that the Ravens' rag-tag approach to the OL in recent years has translated to overall horrible offensive production--and a disappointing W-L record.
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05-19-2017, 12:34 PM #184
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Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?
I'm looking at the way this team has lost big games over the years and one constant has been pass catchers dropping big passes. I don't know how many times the team needs to see it before they figure out that it needs to become a priority and not just something you spend a high pick on once and say 'Welp, we tried'.
Back during the 2012 Off-season, Steve Bisciotti was asked what more the team could have done to get to the Super Bowl and he answered "Catch the ball". That was almost six years ago. It's like he forgot what he said."Please take with you this final sword, The Excellector. I am praying that your journey will be guided by the light", Leon Shore
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05-19-2017, 01:11 PM #185
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Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?
You're probably right on that point.
And it's really too early to know which one of these "mediocre" receivers will establish himself. Which, could by the way, include Perriman.
As for "normal hit rate", the study I saw, over seven drafts I believe, showed 58% of first round receivers become regular starters. So it is "normal" for one in three first round receivers to fail.
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05-19-2017, 01:26 PM #188
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Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?
Picking in round two and three has been an issue for Ozzie ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL, for many drafts now.
Since we're talking about neglecting to gamble on first round wide receivers, it's only fair to compare that success rate to first round picks used on defensive players.
In Ozzie's case, that would mean:
Mosley
Elam
Ngata
Suggs
Reed
McAlister
Starks
Boulware
Lewis
So that's one pick that failed to become a regular starter, or an 89% success rate drafting defense in the first round. Compared to the 58% league-wide success drafting first round wide receivers.
The fact that the first round receiver list would include Travis Taylor, Mark Clayton and Breshard Perriman, I think you can conclude Ozzie's track record matches the league-wide averages, only even more pronounced.
Really, the quality of his defensive picks more dramatic than that, because the standard I quoted from that ten-year study simply to establish themselves as a starter for half their career. Whereas most of these defensive picks for Ozzie were Pro-Bowl caliber and more than one will be HOF when all is said and done.
When you compare the 58% success of WR picks in rd. 1 to 80% success picking OL in rd. 1 it does give you pause about my original point of Ozzie gaming the system. If you look at the relatively better chances of finding a late round receiver, I can understand picks like Campanaro and Moore.Last edited by Shas; 05-19-2017 at 01:48 PM.
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05-19-2017, 03:20 PM #190
Re: What's the plan to fill out the offense?
That wasn't my point. I'm well aware of Ozzie's success in the 1st round. But why do you think he keeps missing in the 2nd and 3rd lately? Because for one, he keeps grabbing these defensive "steals" that fall for a reason, a reason that ultimately leads to them being a bust.
Because he overrates defensive players, and thus underrates offensive players. So, he passes on offensive guys who become starters or better because they aren't as high on his board because he places the defensive guys higher on his board than they should be.
And no, I'm not expecting every pick to pan out. But he's whiffed on every 2nd round defensive pick since 2010 when he selected Mt. Busty, I mean Cody. And the only 3rd rounder, so far since 2010, who's been a hit is BWill, which I guess is in line with the norm for 3rd rounders. But look at how many of these defensive "steals" have been anything but: Kindle, Upshaw, Elam, A. Brown, Jernigan, and so far C. Davis. And yes, technically Upshaw and Jernigan weren't busts, but they were disappointments which is why they're no longer here.
Maybe if we showed more diversity in who we draft in the early rounds, say a WR here or there besides Perriman, then we would've hit on 1 or 2 of these offensive picks taken in place of these defensive ones.
As good as Ozzie has been in the 1st round, he's been that bad in the 2nd & 3rd, and it's one of the main reasons this team is now mired in mediocrity.One or two hits in those 2 rounds would've made a difference.
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05-19-2017, 04:22 PM #191
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