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  1. #37
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post
    This is all largely subjective, based on your perspective. For example, we only sought zuttah after our 4th rd pick sucked. So I guess one could say zuttah cost a fourth and a fifth right?

    Sticking to the objective "3rd rd or not" trigger makes it easy and avoids slippery slope issues.
    that sucky 4th rounder just got us a 4th rounder back in trade, so i think thats not correct either.

    are you counting the duds for other teams within those top 3 picks? I think thats the only way that would be a valid point. Steelers spent that many picks on offense but how many actually hit?

    again, you can stick that distinction and its literally 3 picks in 7 years from what you deem a team that did invest vs a team that didnt, not taking into account the success rate. Thats not much of a distinction and its completely ignoring WHY those teams spent their picks the way they did.
    -JAB





  2. #38
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    that sucky 4th rounder just got us a 4th rounder back in trade, so i think thats not correct either.

    are you counting the duds for other teams within those top 3 picks? I think thats the only way that would be a valid point. Steelers spent that many picks on offense but how many actually hit?

    again, you can stick that distinction and its literally 3 picks in 7 years from what you deem a team that did invest vs a team that didnt, not taking into account the success rate. Thats not much of a distinction and its completely ignoring WHY those teams spent their picks the way they did.
    The road you keep going down is messy. Too subjective.

    And regardless, if one team invests THREE 1st rd picks and the other only ONE, there is indeed a difference in the level of investment, regardless of any other factors. How can that be argued?





  3. #39

    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    The more I look at the diminutive Deandre Carter and slightly bigger Damarr Aultman, I think that in a year or two, we might have at least one more exception to the rule.

    Carter deserves to a draft pick IMO (99 for 1330 and 17 w/ a 18yd punt return avg). He's safely on my WR board b/c of his return ability and vj.
    Aultman will most likely be UDFA b/c unlike Carter, he hasn't accumulated the stats; but he has the best stop/start ability I've ever seen on tape.
    "The Ravens are not taking Jimmy Smith at 26!" -- Me, the day before the 2011 Draft

    "On their way to the podium, the Ravens FO is going to collectively step over my dead body and select...Breshad Perriman." -- Me, the day before the 2015 Draft

    Missed it by That Much: The story of 'Get Smart' and the modern day Baltimore Ravens

    @BigPlayReceiver





  4. #40
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post
    The road you keep going down is messy. Too subjective.

    And regardless, if one team invests THREE 1st rd picks and the other only ONE, there is indeed a difference in the level of investment, regardless of any other factors. How can that be argued?
    decastro, pouncey, and Mendenhall

    Oher and Flacco

    Thats 3 to 2 at worst since 2008 and again we traded for a first round LT, they did not.
    -JAB





  5. #41
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    decastro, pouncey, and Mendenhall

    Oher and Flacco

    Thats 3 to 2 at worst since 2008 and again we traded for a first round LT, they did not.
    A first round LT that cost 4+5 rd picks. Not the same. He was available for a reason, and I doubt many would consider his performance level 1st rd caliber.

    And I arbitrarily counted from 2008...you probably don't want me to count big Ben, heath miler and santonio Holmes, all first rd picks. So thatd be 6 first rd picks on offense since ben was drafted, including Ben. Is 6 more than 2?





  6. #42

    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post
    In the context of this thread, 3rd round is where the line is drawn.

    .... once again, the premise of this thread is THIRD round. Anything below, well, simply isn't the THIRD round.
    I wanted to quote you to get the thread on track. Yes, the premise of the thread is that you can go three rounds deep to get a good wide receiver.

    There was a fork in the thread that developed and an entire conversation about using higher picks to invest in the offense and whether the Ravens do or do not follow the tendencies of other successful franchises when it comes to adding high picks anywhere on the offensive side of the ball. I'll leave that side conversation to others.

    But back to the original premise. I agree that if they don't get a wide out in the first three rounds chances are they won't have a player who has much of a shot of becoming a contributor anytime soon, outside of special teams. And we all agree I think that it would be a shame to not have that kind of bona fide talent added to the receiving corps coming out of this draft.

    The question I wanted to layer on top of this, however, is whether that means they really need that player to be a first rounder. My analysis says no, and in fact, they may fare better taking a defensive player in round one, be it a CB or pass rusher, and end up with a second or third round receiver. My conclusion is that first round receivers are no less risky than receivers picked anywhere in the next two rounds--well, particularly picking 27 when you don't have a shot at the first couple off the board. I think it's safer to project first round picks at other positions, and no riskier to project second and third round receivers.

    I also think there are a bunch of receivers who fit this description who could also prove to be valuable stepping into Jacoby Jones' role as a return man as a rookie as they develop, while the team brings in a veteran and takes a look at players like Brown, Butler and Campanaro.

    I like a third round receiver who can return kicks and compete with those three a whole lot more than I like a third round cornerback competing with Webb, Jackson, Melvin and Jacobs.

    That doesn't mean I am opposed to taking a first round receiver. It's possible that he might be the best player on the board. Perhaps there won't be a worthy corner or pass rusher. But if I'm describing the ideal turn of events, they get that defensive player in one, and get their WR somewhere in the next two picks.
    Last edited by Shas; 04-21-2015 at 10:38 AM.





  7. #43

    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by Shas View Post

    I like a third round receiver who can return kicks and compete with those three a whole lot more than I like a third round cornerback competing with Webb, Jackson, Melvin and Jacobs.
    Paging Stefon Diggs...





  8. #44
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post
    A first round LT that cost 4+5 rd picks. Not the same. He was available for a reason, and I doubt many would consider his performance level 1st rd caliber.

    And I arbitrarily counted from 2008...you probably don't want me to count big Ben, heath miler and santonio Holmes, all first rd picks. So thatd be 6 first rd picks on offense since ben was drafted, including Ben. Is 6 more than 2?
    I wouldnt get too snarky when you miscounted in the first place.

    I also dont know why you ignore our own draft picks over the same time. Grubbs and Clayton would make that 6-4. over 10 years. hardly a huge difference.

    just to get it out of the way, since 96' its 11-9 first rounders since weve been a franchise. one apparently invests the other doesnt at all... sorry but either they both do or both dont, you cant have it both ways in this case.
    -JAB





  9. #45

    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by s.r.genovese View Post
    Paging Stefon Diggs...
    I'd love to see it only because I enjoyed watching him in college and do think he's underrated by those calling him a round- 4-5 player. In reality he showed more talent in his time at MD than Torrey Smith, except for injuries. I think he's just as fast and much more explosive. He had no one to throw him the ball downfield, and was the #1 priority for other teams to stop each week. Can't say that for Torrey. And Torrey became a second round pick.

    I do think Diggs could be nabbed in the latter half of round three. There are a bunch of teams ahead of the Ravens who may still need a receiver but fewer teams picking behind them that do. Diggs of course fits best with a team in need for a slot receiver/return specialist. I know he just attended the Ravens "local prospect" camp today, which is where they fell in love with Campanaro last year.

    Hard to handicap who it might be motivated to go after Diggs here without knowing which teams will have already addressed a receiver need in rounds one or two, and without factoring in prior trades up and down the board.

    As it stands, here's the back half of round three, with commentary related to Diggs and receiver needs...


    15 (79). San Francisco 49ers -- WR is probably #1 need. Assume they address early. If not, certainly here.
    16 (80). Kansas City Chiefs -- not a huge need with Maclin and Wilson, but probably need a mid-round WR to complement and develop
    17 (81). Buffalo Bills -- set at WR
    18 (82). Houston Texans -- WR clearly a top need. Expect it to be addressed earlier. See San Fran, above.
    19 (83). San Diego Chargers -- lower priority
    20 (84). Philadelphia Eagles -- Chip Kelly. Who the fuck knows?
    21 (85). Cincinnati Bengals -- Pretty set at WR, but like to draft WRs and a slot guy like Diggs makes sense
    22 (86). Arizona Cardinals -- nope
    23 (87). Pittsburgh Steelers -- too many needs on D
    24 (88). Detroit Lions -- lower priority
    25 (89). Carolina Panthers -- Don't see it. Have a buttload of WRs, including Diggs like addition in Ted Ginn
    26 (90). Baltimore Ravens
    27 (91). Dallas Cowboys
    28 (92). Denver Broncos -- WR not a top need, but could use a WR/Return Specialist
    29 (93). Indianapolis Colts -- Harrison's final year
    30 (94). Green Bay Packers
    31 (95). Seattle Seahawks -- Definitely a need
    32 (96). New England Patriots -- Diggs is a Belichick-type player and could see them moving up from here with a spare comp pick at 97
    33 (97). New England Patriots (compensatory selection)
    34 (98). Kansas City Chiefs (compensatory selection)
    35 (99). Cincinnati Bengals (compensatory selection)





  10. #46

    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by Shas View Post
    I'd love to see it only because I enjoyed watching him in college and do think he's underrated by those calling him a round- 4-5 player. In reality he showed more talent in his time at MD than Torrey Smith, except for injuries. I think he's just as fast and much more explosive. He had no one to throw him the ball downfield, and was the #1 priority for other teams to stop each week. Can't say that for Torrey. And Torrey became a second round pick.

    I do think Diggs could be nabbed in the latter half of round three. There are a bunch of teams ahead of the Ravens who may still need a receiver but fewer teams picking behind them that do. Diggs of course fits best with a team in need for a slot receiver/return specialist. I know he just attended the Ravens "local prospect" camp today, which is where they fell in love with Campanaro last year.

    Hard to handicap who it might be motivated to go after Diggs here without knowing which teams will have already addressed a receiver need in rounds one or two, and without factoring in prior trades up and down the board.

    As it stands, here's the back half of round three, with commentary related to Diggs and receiver needs...


    15 (79). San Francisco 49ers -- WR is probably #1 need. Assume they address early. If not, certainly here.
    16 (80). Kansas City Chiefs -- not a huge need with Maclin and Wilson, but probably need a mid-round WR to complement and develop
    17 (81). Buffalo Bills -- set at WR
    18 (82). Houston Texans -- WR clearly a top need. Expect it to be addressed earlier. See San Fran, above.
    19 (83). San Diego Chargers -- lower priority
    20 (84). Philadelphia Eagles -- Chip Kelly. Who the fuck knows?
    21 (85). Cincinnati Bengals -- Pretty set at WR, but like to draft WRs and a slot guy like Diggs makes sense
    22 (86). Arizona Cardinals -- nope
    23 (87). Pittsburgh Steelers -- too many needs on D
    24 (88). Detroit Lions -- lower priority
    25 (89). Carolina Panthers -- Don't see it. Have a buttload of WRs, including Diggs like addition in Ted Ginn
    26 (90). Baltimore Ravens
    27 (91). Dallas Cowboys
    28 (92). Denver Broncos -- WR not a top need, but could use a WR/Return Specialist
    29 (93). Indianapolis Colts -- Harrison's final year
    30 (94). Green Bay Packers
    31 (95). Seattle Seahawks -- Definitely a need
    32 (96). New England Patriots -- Diggs is a Belichick-type player and could see them moving up from here with a spare comp pick at 97
    33 (97). New England Patriots (compensatory selection)
    34 (98). Kansas City Chiefs (compensatory selection)
    35 (99). Cincinnati Bengals (compensatory selection)
    I wouldn't call WR the 49ers primary need at 79. They lost two ILBs, Justin Smith, and most of their secondary. Not to mention they have Boldin, Torrey, Jerome Simpson, and two young guys that could compete for the #3 role.

    And you have a typo with the Colts. I think you mean that it's Hiltons final year. Harrison retired years ago.
    Let's win the f**king game.
    Joe Flacco





  11. #47

    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    Quote Originally Posted by Sarcasticfury View Post
    I wouldn't call WR the 49ers primary need at 79. They lost two ILBs, Justin Smith, and most of their secondary. Not to mention they have Boldin, Torrey, Jerome Simpson, and two young guys that could compete for the #3 role.

    And you have a typo with the Colts. I think you mean that it's Hiltons final year. Harrison retired years ago.
    Yes, hard to shake that memory of Harrison as a Colt. I meant Hilton.





  12. #48
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    Re: The 3rd round seems to be the cut-off point...

    I think we will draft a WR in the 1st or 2nd round, but I also think that Brown will step up this season. Could be an effective weapon as teams wont be expecting him to carry the ball as much as say, Steve Smith or a potential 1st - 3rd round draft pick.





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