Why Tyler Lockett makes sense in Round 2

[The Wizard of OZ]

Tyler+Lockett+Auburn+v+Kansas+State+0_mY8HK8DyWl.jpg





I am basing this on two things: 1) an interview with Ravens Director of College Scouting Joe Hortiz and the essentials he spelled out for wide receiver prospects and 2) what I see on Tyler Lockett's tape. Before looking at these two items, I want to say that I think Lockett will be a riser as we get closer to the draft. I'm pretty sure that NFL teams already had him rated high, but the media did not. But as we get closer to the draft we get closer to how teams actually rank these players and the media BS falls off. Ok on to the Hortiz piece first.

Back in January Ravens Director of College Scouting Joe Hortiz indicated that what they look for three primary traits in a wide receiver prospect. First, he has to be able to catch. Second, he has to be able to separate. Finally, he has to have yards after catch ability. I want to focus on the latter two in examining Lockett's tape. In focusing on them it'll be evident that he has the first trait.

When Hortiz talks about the ability to separate, I understand him to mean route running. Here is not so much about speed and running past defenders (while that is great to have) it is also, in Hortiz' words, suddenness. My understanding here is a couple of things, route running (smooth bursts in and out of breaks) and the ability to flip the hips (twitch) while remaining fluid. This is what makes Lockett a great player and a WR I'd love for us to take in the 2nd round. Several examples showcase twitch at the top of his routes.

http://zippy.gfycat.com/FavorableDarlingHind.webm
http://zippy.gfycat.com/DownrightSpeedyFlatfish.webm

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/tyle...wa-state-2014/

Lockett is very agile and the twitch at the top of his routes allows him to sell routes and fool cornerbacks. Notice in the video above, the Baylor CB was not able to move with Lockett on the comeback because he lacks that twitch ability. To provide more description, the corner looks like he's trying to mirror Lockett on a 9/Go route, but Lockett's suddenness fools the corner and he gets wide open for the comeback route. In the second video, look at how he sells the route twice and all the corner can do here is stay off. By the time he gets to the top of the route, the CB is broken down. I put the entire Iowa State tape up there last. If you look at the second play of that game, particularly at the 33 second mark watch how Lockett completely breaks the CB down and picks up a 56 yard gain. Even on the next play at 00:50 look at how he loses the CB on the corner route. A better throw and that's a TD. Lastly, when it comes to route running and separation, if you look at all of Lockett's videos on draftbreakdown what you will notice is that he is almost ALWAYS open on that comeback route, and when I say ALWAYS, ehhh check it out for yourself. In every game that comeback route seemed to be money with him. Reminds me of when we had Derrick Mason. For more on him selling routes check out vs Oklahoma 2013 4:06;

Well maybe it is because Baylor's and Iowa State's cornerbacks are not that good and Lockett is taking advantage of "weak" competition.


What about against top competition?

https://youtu.be/JjJoSeQxAa0

In the above video Lockett is locked up one on one with the Chargers 1st round pick from last year's draft Jason Verrett. Watch how Lockett sells the route. He is smooth in and out of breaks. He leaves Verrett looking like DareDevil on this one, namely, BLIND and walks in for the TD.

On these next two, watch his footwork and his hips as he sets the DB up for failure and gets wide open.

http://zippy.gfycat.com/SickFantasticBustard.webm

http://draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/...llowishGerenuk

Notice on the first clip he sold the inside route and got open all while remaining fluid. On the second clip he sold the outside route and got open on the inside all while remaining fluid. Also notice his feet never stop and his fluid hips allow him to make plays. When people talk about Strong not creating separation this is a large part of that deal. I'm not sure how much his route running will improve. He does not have this type of flexibility in his hips and his footwork is nowhere near Lockett's. And that's one of the differences between Strong and Boldin. While Boldin was not fast he had good footwork and he could sell a route. But I digress on that point.

So I think Lockett fits all the criteria that Hortiz outlined in what the Ravens look for in a WR. But there is more. Can he high point passes? For a guy Lockett's size tradition logic would say he cannot high point passes, but with this guy throw traditional logic out of the window.

http://draftbreakdown.com/gif-embed/...GraveBlueKoala

Look at him get up between both the Safety and Corner from Oklahoma here, catching the pass and hanging onto it while getting hit. If this is not enough check out his Iowa State tape that I posted the link to earlier, in particular at 1:42 - he dropped that one; and 4:22 he caught it and got his foot down in bounds.


Yards after catch and making defenders miss
Iowa State tape 3:13-3:17.

Can he take the top off of a defense?
Check out OU 2013 5:20

The one other thing that needs to be mentioned here is that these are not just one game scenarios for Lockett. When you turn on the tape he's consistent across the board. You see this in every piece of tape that is available. I really wish more were available. For a thorough look check out six of his games here: http://draftbreakdown.com/players/tyler-lockett/

In the end, I think Lockett is coming off the board in the 2nd round. He has everything playwise that teams want in a WR. He can't control his height, but his ability on the field is impeccable and has been consistent.

[Bigfish]

He's 5'10", 170 lbs. We have Smith and Campanaro already, and he's smaller than both. I'd prefer a more physical presence.

WEAKNESSES

Very slightly built. Struggles with physical cornerbacks and can be redirected in his routes. Press coverage could be an issue for him on the next level. Scouts are concerned that he is too slightly built to be a full-time NFL kick returner. Likely relegated to the slot only in the NFL. Hands are inconsistent in traffic. Top-end speed in question. Got caught from behind more than once.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ett?id=2552430

[BcRaven]

Fans get enamored with certain college players, and over-rate them. IMO there's no way the Ravens take Lockett in the 2nd round. I'm not saying he's not a good player, but that's what teams like the Browns often do. Over draft guys who should fall a round or two later. Personally, I wouldn't touch him until round #4... Bc

[The Wizard of OZ]

Fans get enamored with certain college players, and over-rate them. IMO there's no way the Ravens take Lockett in the 2nd round. I'm not saying he's not a good player, but that's what teams like the Browns often do. Over draft guys who should fall a round or two later. Personally, I wouldn't touch him until round #4... Bc

At our pick in round 2 I think that's a great spot for him. What criteria in your mind makes him an "over-drafted" prospect at the end of round 2? Of course if the board sets up a certain way, but outside of that, I'm curious. Again, I'm not saying we should or are going to draft him, I'm just saying I think he makes sense given what Hortiz outlined and given his tape.

[DC Raven]

https://youtu.be/JjJoSeQxAa0

In the above video Lockett is locked up one on one with the Chargers 1st round pick from last year's draft Jason Verrett. Watch how Lockett sells the route. He is smooth in and out of breaks. He leaves Verrett looking like DareDevil on this one, namely, BLIND and walks in for the TD.

I think it's important here to point out that Verrett is clearly playing in a cover 2, so he didn't really get burned by Lockett, he leaves him to go pick up another offensive player (a RB or TE) in the flat. You can see after Lockett hits 10 yards and makes his fake, Verrett actually turns away and moves towards the LOS a bit and points behind him (he is trying to signal to the safety that he is releasing from Lockett and the safety needs to come over). So, yes, Lockett shows his nice speed here and made a nice move, but it might not have worked so well against man coverage. A better safety could have made the coverage as well. Unfortunately we can't see what the safety did (he may have reacted too late, or just not been fast enough to make his assignment).

[The Wizard of OZ]

He's 5'10", 170 lbs. We have Smith and Campanaro already, and he's smaller than both. I'd prefer a more physical presence.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profil...ett?id=2552430

I'll just say this look at his tape and tell me where any of that is criticism is consistent. Yes he's gotten caught from behind, but he's also outran the defense too. Yes he has a slight build but so does Antonio Brown; Emmanuel Sanders; DeSean Jackson, so on and so forth.

As far as height, he's not shorter than Steve Smith Sr. He weighs less of course. Anyways, again I'm not saying we should or that we will but that it makes sense and I think there will be a team that takes him in round 2.

[The Wizard of OZ]

I think it's important here to point out that Verrett is clearly playing in a cover 2, so he didn't really get burned by Lockett, he leaves him to go pick up another offensive player (a RB or TE) in the flat. You can see after Lockett hits 10 yards and makes his fake, Verrett actually turns away and moves towards the LOS a bit and points behind him (he is trying to signal to the safety that he is releasing from Lockett and the safety needs to come over). So, yes, Lockett shows his nice speed here and made a nice move, but it might not have worked so well against man coverage. A better safety could have made the coverage as well. Unfortunately we can't see what the safety did (he may have reacted too late, or just not been fast enough to make his assignment).

Verrett was not playing cover 2. There was no safety help. Check out the play on the game film from draft breakdown. It was Cover 0. Verrett just got shook. The youtube video doesn't show you the top down view but the draft breakdown film does. This was not cover 2. There was no safety behind Verrett 00:59 seconds http://draftbreakdown.com/video/tyle...t-vs-tcu-2013/

Safety creeped up in the box. At 1:40 the blimp view. The safety is man to man on the TE. Verrett just got shook. Or maybe he thought he was playing cover 2 but wasn't supposed to because everyone is in man coverage on this play. But I don't think that's it though. Why would Verrett open up and take Lockett up the field as if he's covering a fly route and just stop? If he's playing cover 2 he would never open up with him like that.

[The Wizard of OZ]

If it makes any difference I'm doing a Why Devin Smith makes Sense.

[winnipegraven]

KR/PR/Slot in the 2nd round? No thanks.

[The Wizard of OZ]

KR/PR/Slot in the 2nd round? No thanks.

Who says he has to be regulated to the slot? The way he runs routes he has a chance to play and be effective on the perimeter.

[winnipegraven]

Who says he has to be regulated to the slot? The way he runs routes he has a chance to play and be effective on the perimeter.

His size dictates it. You gonna put him out wide where a real man will just chuck him around?

[alien bird]

Yamon Figurs 2.0