Some Overtime Statistics

[organizedchaos21]

Hello all,

During the gamethread today a question arose concerning winning % in OT due to the coin toss. After a quick and fruitless Google search, I decided to crunch some numbers myself. I ended up with some results that I found surprising.

Since the OT rule change before the 2012 season, there have been 44 OT games played, including one playoff game (I imagine you all remember that one ;)). Surprisingly, 3 of those 44 have ended in a tie (more on that later). The home team has won 24, and as far as I can the team that won the toss has won exactly half with only one team not choosing to receive (unfortunately, OT coin toss results were not readily available. If anyone knows of a game where the team that won the OT coin toss chose to defer, please let me know. As it stands, I made the potentially faulty assumption that any team who received the opening kickoff of OT won the toss, excepting the infamous Patriots deferring game against the Broncos in 2013).

Now, let's get into some deeper observations. In 13 of these games, a team has scored on the opening possession, including seven TDs that ended the game. As such, 37 games have seen both teams possess the ball at least once, and more than half of those (19) have been tied after each team has had the ball once. In all, there were 119 total possessions in those 44 games, or 2.7 possessions/game.

The most exciting part to me was seeing what effect the 2012 rule change has had on the game, if any. 6 games have been extended by the rule change, but no team has lost a game they would have won under the old rule! In 3 of these games, the team that kicked the field goal on their opening possession has proceeded to stop the opposing team on their next possession to win the game. In the other 3, the opposing team has come back to tie it. Once (Jaguars@Texans, 2012), the teams then traded scoreless possessions before the Texans, who had scored first, completed a long TD pass. The other two times, the game has ended in a tie. Basically, the effect of the 2012 OT rule change so far has been to slightly increase the number of ties.

Another interesting fact: since 1974, there have been 6 occurrences of 3 ties in 3 seasons (a feat accomplished today when Mike Nugent missed a field goal to end the game in Cincinnati). Only one 3 season set has witnessed more ties (4 between 1986 and 1988).

Thanks for taking the time to read my post. Feel free to contact me with any questions.

N.B.
(1) At 44 games, the sample is still rather small.
(2) Since I manually mined and entered all the data, the possibility of errors existing is quite large. Please message me if you find any.
(3) For those of you that missed it, the link to the data and calculations is in the opening paragraph.
(4) The OT rule change for the playoffs occurred before the 2010 season, but it has yet to have an effect on any of the 3 OT games since then.

[Filmstudy]

Hello all,

During the gamethread today a question arose concerning winning % in OT due to the coin toss. After a quick and fruitless Google search, I decided to crunch some numbers myself. I ended up with some results that I found surprising.

Since the OT rule change before the 2012 season, there have been 44 OT games played, including one playoff game (I imagine you all remember that one ;)). Surprisingly, 3 of those 44 have ended in a tie (more on that later). The home team has won 24, and as far as I can the team that won the toss has won exactly half with only one team not choosing to receive (unfortunately, OT coin toss results were not readily available. If anyone knows of a game where the team that won the OT coin toss chose to defer, please let me know. As it stands, I made the potentially faulty assumption that any team who received the opening kickoff of OT won the toss, excepting the infamous Patriots deferring game against the Broncos in 2013).

Now, let's get into some deeper observations. In 13 of these games, a team has scored on the opening possession, including seven TDs that ended the game. As such, 37 games have seen both teams possess the ball at least once, and more than half of those (19) have been tied after each team has had the ball once. In all, there were 119 total possessions in those 44 games, or 2.7 possessions/game.

The most exciting part to me was seeing what effect the 2012 rule change has had on the game, if any. 6 games have been extended by the rule change, but no team has lost a game they would have won under the old rule! In 3 of these games, the team that kicked the field goal on their opening possession has proceeded to stop the opposing team on their next possession to win the game. In the other 3, the opposing team has come back to tie it. Once (Jaguars@Texans, 2012), the teams then traded scoreless possessions before the Texans, who had scored first, completed a long TD pass. The other two times, the game has ended in a tie. Basically, the effect of the 2012 OT rule change so far has been to slightly increase the number of ties.

Another interesting fact: since 1974, there have been 6 occurrences of 3 ties in 3 seasons (a feat accomplished today when Mike Nugent missed a field goal to end the game in Cincinnati). Only one 3 season set has witnessed more ties (4 between 1986 and 1988).

Thanks for taking the time to read my post. Feel free to contact me with any questions.

N.B.
(1) At 44 games, the sample is still rather small.
(2) Since I manually mined and entered all the data, the possibility of errors existing is quite large. Please message me if you find any.
(3) For those of you that missed it, the link to the data and calculations is in the opening paragraph.
(4) The OT rule change for the playoffs occurred before the 2010 season, but it has yet to have an effect on any of the 3 OT games since then.

Good info, but how did the coin toss winners manage to split 41 games?

Here is the one extra piece of info I'd like...What was the average starting field position of the teams that got the ball first and that of those that got the ball 2nd (37 games)?

[organizedchaos21]

Good info, but how did the coin toss winners manage to split 41 games?

Here is the one extra piece of info I'd like...What was the average starting field position of the teams that got the ball first and that of those that got the ball 2nd (37 games)?

Coin toss winners are 22-19-3 in the 44 games. So they won exactly half, but they didn't split the games.

I'll see if I can find some time to take a look at the field position data. Might do it tonight, might put it off for a bit.

[Mista T]

Since the OT rule change before the 2012 season, there have been 44 OT games played, including one playoff game (I imagine you all remember that one ).

There have been at least two OT games since the new (half-assed) rules went into effect (both quotes from Wiki):

The 3:16 Game was a National Football League AFC Division Wild Card game on Sunday, January 8, 2012, between the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers, held at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. It was the first NFL playoff game played under new overtime scoring rules that were enacted prior to the 2010 season. Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow threw an 80-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of overtime to give Denver a 29–23 victory.

and

The Mile High Miracle is the name given to both the NFL 2012 AFC Divisional playoff game between the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos on January 12, 2013, and its defining play,[1] a game-tying 70-yard touchdown pass from Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco to receiver Jacoby Jones with under a minute left in regulation. Playing on the road against the heavily favored Broncos, who had decisively defeated the struggling Ravens late in the regular season while on an 11-game winning streak, Flacco and the Ravens forced the Peyton Manning-led Broncos into double-overtime, when Justin Tucker kicked a 47-yard field goal to secure a 38–35 win. With 28 points scored in the first eleven minutes of the game, three return touchdowns, five lead changes, and single-digit temperatures, the game was described by Sports Illustrated as "one of the most exciting and entertaining postseason games in NFL history."[2] The Ravens would go on to beat the New England Patriots, and two weeks later, defeat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII for the franchise's second championship.

The Mile High Miracle was ranked #1 on NFL.com's Top 20 NFL Games of 2012. The game was described as "a contest that had everything: two special teams touchdowns, two bombs for scores and a pick-six – all without disintegrating into one of those nobody-can-stop-anybody affairs. The defenses did not play poorly; this was not a track meet. It had some balance."[3]

[organizedchaos21]

There have been at least two OT games since the new (half-assed) rules went into effect.

There have actually been 3 OT games since the OT rules were changed for the playoffs (before the 2010 season). Only one of those occurred after 2012 when the rule was changed for regular season OT as well. As such, I (stupidly) only included that game in my data, but I should also include the other two (the one you mentioned, as well as the 2011 NFC Championship game between the 49ers and Giants). As I mention in the notes at the end of my post, however, none of these games were affected by the rule change; each ended exactly when it would have under the old rules.

[organizedchaos21]

Here is the one extra piece of info I'd like...What was the average starting field position of the teams that got the ball first and that of those that got the ball 2nd (37 games)?

(Note: I will refer to the team that receives the ball to start OT as team 1, and the team that starts on defense as team 2)

Added some field position data in. The average starting field position (AFP) on the first possession of OT is between the 21 and 22 (21.73, 44 teams). AFP if team 1 scores is the 20 (20.08, 13 teams). There's a 2 yard difference between the AFP of teams that score TDs on 1st possession (20.57, 7 teams) and teams that kick field goals (19.50, 6 teams).

Now we get to what I believe you were looking for. The AFP for team 2 is their own 32 (32.03, 37 teams), significantly further downfield than their opponent's starting field position. The AFP of team 2 when they drive for a score is the 45 (45.33, 18 teams). Broken down further, when team 2 wins on the second possession, their AFP is the 49 (49.47, 15 teams), while the three teams who have gotten possession of the ball while trailing in OT have an AFP of the 25 (24.67), as expected given that the other team gets to kick off.

(Please let me know if any of that is unclear. I often do not communicate what I am thinking well, and I doubt it is very easy to look through the spreadsheet.)

Something else I noticed while running these numbers. When team 1 scores on the first possession, they are 11-0-2. If team 1 does not score on the first possession, they are 11-19-1, with team 2 winning on their first possession 15 times. Given the added advantage of field position team 2 gets when their defense can make a stop, it may be optimal for a team to defer, especially when wind is a factor (i.e. Belichick probably made the right call against Denver).