The Ravens' Biggest Problem: Lack of a Young, Cheap, Core

[bmorecareful]

The Ravens have a big problem in the area of roster construction. They are a team that has historically been built through the draft and built well, and the blueprint for turning this 8-8 team back into a playoff contender will likely be more of the same smart drafting. The problem is, in comparison to other top teams in the league, the Ravens lack a core group of young players on their rookie contracts overachieving their contract status--what I call "blue chip" players.

The core of the team is now older, 2nd-contract players who are playing at or below their cap value--what I call "red chip" players. They're good, but you're not really getting a lot of value for your money. That's not a recipe for long-term success. You need a good mix of red chip and blue chip players in order to be successful, but the Ravens' ratio of blue to red chip guys is not where it needs to be at all, mostly as a result of drafting only a handful of impact players in the last 4 drafts. Below is a list of the Ravens' most talented players and their red chip/blue chip status.

QB Joe Flacco is the 2nd highest paid player in the league, but his level of play is way below that pay grade.
RB Ray Rice has a top-5 contract number for his position, but again level of play way below that pay grade. Bernard Pierce may have blue-chip potential, but unfortunately he will not likely get a chance to be the Ravens' feature back before his rookie contract expires.
WR Torrey Smith is one of the few "young core" players this team has, but he's not really playing above the level of a decent #2 WR, so he's only a marginal "blue chipper."
TE Dennis Pitta, if retained, will be entering his age-29 season under a new, more expensive contract, so he's a "red chipper."
OL Marshal Yanda has health concerns over the last few years, but he's still a high-quality guard. He isn't young though and is entering year 4 of an expensive 2nd contract. Eugene Monroe, if retained, will also be a "red chipper."
DL Haloti Ngata is no longer one of the top 5 or 10 DTs in the league, although he's paid like one. Red chipper.
LB Terrell Suggs is a red chipper if he makes it to 2014. Elvis Dumervil is another red chipper.
CB Jimmy Smith is one of the team's other "blue chip" players, but he does come with a slight asterisk because the light only really started to come on for him 2 1/2 years into his rookie contract. Lardarius Webb is a red chipper.

There are some other marginal guys who don't make the cut, like Kelechi Osemele, Marlon Brown, Courtney Upshaw, or Matt Elam. These guys have played decently and could make become "blue chippers" next year--and for the Ravens to get back to dominant status, they'll need to and they'll need to be joined by a player or two from this coming draft.

[wickedsolo]

I think it is too soon to really stake this claim right now.

If Arthur Brown, Brandon Williams, DeAngelo Tyson, Asa Jackson, Marlon Brown and Bernard Pierce all continue (hopeful) upward trends then that changes the dynamic you've proposed significantly.

There needs to be balance. The Ravens replaced quite a few starters last year and should have a much more experienced unit next year. Hopefully they land a decent WR or two in the draft and can address some of the offensive design issues. Other than that, the future looks bright from a personnel perspective.

Now, if you're making that claim for the 2013 season...I'd agree. However, again, given the turnover (especially on D) it was going to be difficult to replace that much continuity and experience.

[Money227]

I would strongly consider Upshaw, Osemele and Pierce as light blue chippers. I think you will see much bigger contributions from the Ravens' first 6 2013 draft choices next year.

[NestMinder]

bmorecareful, I don't mean to get off-topic on this thread, because I agree with your general premise.

However: QB Joe Flacco is the 2nd highest paid player in the league, but his level of play is way below that pay grade.

2nd highest paid? Are you looking at salary cap hit? Total contract value?

http://espn.go.com/blog/baltimore-ra...ares-to-flacco

Average per year: Cutler will average $18 million per season, which is $2 million per year less than Flacco ($20.1 million). Flacco's APY ranks third among NFL quarterbacks, trailing Aaron Rodgers ($22 million) and Matt Ryan ($20.75 million).

Guaranteed money: Cutler will receive $54 million in guaranteed money, which is $3 million more than Flacco ($51 million). Flacco's guaranteed money is seventh among NFL quarterbacks, ranking behind Ryan ($59 million), Tom Brady ($57 million), Drew Brees ($55 million), Tony Romo ($55 million), Rodgers ($54 million) and Cutler ($54 million).

Again, my apologies for getting off-topic. Harbs needs to be more willing to give rookies bigger roles, IMO.

Art Jones would have fit your "blue chip" category previously, but obviously not going forward. Hopefully DeAngelo Tyson and Brandon Williams will fill that void.

[NestMinder]

In addition, TL dug this up during his research for an article:

Despite roster turnover in 2013 #Ravens rookies played significantly less than they did in 2012. #Ravens Rookie play by comparison (2012 v. 2013): Snaps 2315 v. 1345; Games Played 60 v. 41; Games Started 27 v. 15.

[blah3]

I don't know that I would consider a player performing at value a problem.
So the only real problem 'red chipper' on your list is Ray Rice, who I believe is the only one clearly playing below contract.
Suggs could be a problem in your scenario, but most believe his contract will be re-worked.

[bmorecareful]

I don't know that I would consider a player performing at value a problem.
So the only real problem 'red chipper' on your list is Ray Rice, who I believe is the only one clearly playing below contract.
Suggs could be a problem in your scenario, but most believe his contract will be re-worked.

The salary cap dictates that you can't possibly pay market value for every position. Inevitably, you either need to let talented players go, or you need to find ways to underpay for them. Drafting talented players who can contribute at a high level very quickly seems to be the best way to do that IMO.

Look at the Seattle Seahawks. They have Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Russell Okung, etc. all playing at a top-10 level at their positions, all in their rookie contracts. That frees up so much money for them to go out and pay big money at other positions to keep their talent level up. Other similar teams with big talent/value ratio edges are the Bengals, Colts, etc.

To clarify, I didn't mean that a "blue chip" player is better than a "red chip" player, not in terms of on-field results at least. They just give you a huge edge in talent for your money. The key to keeping that talent/value ratio high is continuously drafting players who can give you elite play quickly, hopefully by year 2 if not in their rookie years. I know that's easier said than done, but I would argue that if your team is constantly in a position of needing to hand out big extensions every year, especially for older players you feel you haven't replaced or can't possibly replace, you're already putting yourself in a very tough spot. The Ravens have been in exactly that spot seemingly every year now.

[blah3]

To clarify, I didn't mean that a "blue chip" player is better than a "red chip" player, not in terms of on-field results at least. They just give you a huge edge in talent for your money. The key to keeping that talent/value ratio high is continuously drafting players who can give you elite play quickly, hopefully by year 2 if not in their rookie years. I know that's easier said than done, but I would argue that if your team is constantly in a position of needing to hand out big extensions every year, especially for older players you feel you haven't replaced or can't possibly replace, you're already putting yourself in a very tough spot. The Ravens have been in exactly that spot seemingly every year now.

Clearly it's better to have players out perform contract. What I'm saying, is I don't think it's as much as a problem to have players playing at contract as you.

Also, I am probably the biggest critic of the Ravens not extending players early, I don't agree with your representation that the Ravens are constantly extending older players because the cupboards are bare. They signed Flacco, because he was worth it and in his prime. They signed Ngata because he was worth it and in his prime. Yanda re-upped and in his prime. Sugss was worth re-signing. Webb worth it.
But they let Boldin go, Pollard go, Ellerbe go.

[GOTA]

In addition, TL dug this up during his research for an article:

Despite roster turnover in 2013 #Ravens rookies played significantly less than they did in 2012. #Ravens Rookie play by comparison (2012 v. 2013): Snaps 2315 v. 1345; Games Played 60 v. 41; Games Started 27 v. 15.

That's a good stat but it needs to be expanded beyond just rookies. It needs to be players on their rookie contracts. That's where most of the reasonable cap numbers come from.

[BcRaven]

I would strongly consider Upshaw, Osemele and Pierce as light blue chippers. I think you will see much bigger contributions from the Ravens' first 6 2013 draft choices next year.

Yes, I can also see the 2012 draftees (Upshaw, KO, Pierce, Asa, Tyson, end even GG) make improvements in 2014. I'd like to see real upticks in play from the 2013 slate by 2015. I does take many young players a year or two to establish themselves. IMO Ozzie has done a solid job of drafting considering how low the Ravens pick due to their current success... Bc

[BcRaven]

In addition, TL dug this up during his research for an article:

Despite roster turnover in 2013 #Ravens rookies played significantly less than they did in 2012. #Ravens Rookie play by comparison (2012 v. 2013): Snaps 2315 v. 1345; Games Played 60 v. 41; Games Started 27 v. 15.

I think that can be explained this way : 2012 - Upshaw (OLB) and KO (RT/LG) were starters all of the Super Bowl season. 2013 - Only Elam (S) was a starter, but A. Brown (ILB) and B. Williams (DT/NT) did not see a lot of defensive snaps... Bc

[ravensnhokies]

I think its pretty obvious... Oz/Eric have not drafted as well as some of those top teams. Its tough b/c the Ravens are always drafting low in each round, but they have made some poor picks. 2010 was a very poor draft (other than Pitta) considering the excellent players they passed over on. There are other specific cases (Upshaw over Jeffery), but you could do that for almost every team.