Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
Well, the raw drop number with Matthews needs a little additional context. I believe he caught 50% of his total receptions (or thereabouts) on passes behind the LOS, which is on par with Watkins but dramatically higher than most of the other top 8-10 receivers in the class.

When a guy has that high a drop rate and only 50% of his passes are even beyond the LOS, I would frown on him a little more in comparison to the rest of the list (same goes for Watkins.) That contrasts with guys like Landry and Beckham, who have a FAR higher proportion of their receptions beyond 10 yards from the LOS--thus their "real" drop rate should be adjusted downward. Landry, for example, dropped only 2 balls in the entire 2013 season, which is outstanding especially given his deeper depth of target.

There are all kinds of ways to contextualize the numbers, but generally speaking, they don't lie too much. Bottom line on Jordan Matthews is that "hands" are not really a strength for him, on balance--he can make nice catches, but he drops his share as well.

Co-signed ^


More general context below for the top guys (average depth of reception and average YAC).

2014 DoR and YAC.JPG