Patriots Are 9.5 Point Favorites -- Here's Why We Might Still Have a Chance (At Least To Beat The Spread)

[houstonravensfan]

I don't care if we cover the spread. I want us to cover Brady. With dirt.

[FearTheRaven]

The 9.5 line the books posted is simply for teasers. Lot of bettors love teasers and will move the Patriots down to -2.5 and the 9ers +2.5.

I will give my analysis tomorrow but I feel the Ravens win this game. The money line of +340 holds great value.

[EdReed4HOF]

Not only will the Ravens cover the spread, they'll win the damn game!

[iggyman555]

spread down to 8 now...money coming in on the ravens late

[AirFlacco]

Mike Preston and Peter Schmuck are the only Sun writers that picked Ravens. Aaron Wilson picked NE.

[psuasskicker]

Really I could see it against Denver, but I don't with NE and I cant fathom why the line hasn't moved. On 2 sites I'm on the overwhelming money is on the Ravens +9 to the tune of about 85% of the money being there. This is about as close to a lock as you can get. Not that the Ravens win mind you, but that it's ALOT closer than 9 points.

Really honestly that the line hasn't moved is what really scares me. Not to get too muc into it but the spread isn't what Vegas THINKS will happen, it's what they PREDICT will get as close to even money on both sides. Remember the House always wins in a casino? Well same theory with sports betting. They will ALWAYS make money over the course, the object is to maxamize that by minimizing loss, i.e payouts. So by the line not moving and a TON of money on the Ravens side that's what makes it scary.

The lines are moving now and down to 8 in most places. There are a couple factors that likely were influencing it.

1) Wong teasers would have been HUGELY in play with the line in SF/ATL at the 3, if they moved down from that. With that line moving in SF's favor, not much point fearing Wongs so they're okay dipping below the 9 now. And if you know what a Wong teaser is, you know the first rule of Fight Club is.....

2) If the line truly didn't move with that heavy money moving on the Ravens, or worse, moved the opposite way, it's essentially called a "reverse line move." Contrary to popular belief, the spread is not what Vegas thinks people will bet. It's the predictive likelihood one team wins over the other, and its translation into number of points by which they're historically expected to win by being an [x] likelihood favorite. In other words, Vegas is smarter than the betting public.

And if the betting public is pouring money on one side, and Vegas is moving the line the opposite direction, it means they WANT the money on that side, and they know more than we do, and so they're making a very calculated bet that the line is set correctly or not far enough in one direction. Which means the smart money hammers the side of the RLM.

I know all the money's coming in on the Ravens, and it was literally scaring the shit out of me that the line wasn't moving. Now it is, so I'm not nearly as worried and think it was the first factor more than the second. They're making it 3 to 1 against us winning. That's fine, sounds about right cause they're better and we just had a tougher game that went more than five quarters on their turf.

At the same, I like us to play them close. And if we do, we've been pretty good at winning close games this year (6-3 in games decided by 3 or fewer points). They, mostly, have not (1-3 in games decided by 3 or fewer points).

- C -

[bacchys]

I think Vegas screwed themselves with that line, personally. The Pats are better, on paper. They're certainly playing well. But these two teams aren't strangers to each other the last few years and the only blowout was the Ravens over the Pats (33-14 on Jan. 10, 2010). The last three games have been decided by 3 points or fewer.

[dandrews]

I think Vegas screwed themselves with that line, personally. The Pats are better, on paper. They're certainly playing well. But these two teams aren't strangers to each other the last few years and the only blowout was the Ravens over the Pats (33-14 on Jan. 10, 2010). The last three games have been decided by 3 points or fewer.

The line is that high because the Pats are a huge public team that will get a ton of bets (no matter what the spread is) on their side this weekend. Vegas must compensate by originally making the line high in order to get an equal/similar amount of money on the Ravens. It has little to do with actual football reasons.

[Tucker: M&T Sec 527]

I like us to not only cover the spread, but win outright.

I don't bet on human sports, but if I did I be taking the points on this one. Based on these 2 teams' history in the Harbaugh era, that would be easy money. But I'm with you, we can do better than cover on Sunday. REFUSE TO LOSE!!

[iggyman555]

dam line is down to 7.5 is most places