Joe didn't really play better under Kubiak

I told you guys a couple years ago that Flacco wasn't really any better the year with Kubes, than he had been previously. Joe's stats were just inflated by 4 games against historically awful defenses in the NFC South. And I got shouted down by you guys! "You can't just arbitrarily subtract out Joe's 4 best games!"

I thought that was a stupid argument. It wasn't arbitrary: I was subtracting out a known set of outliers. That division's defenses were understood to be just terrible. But I let it lie.

Now that Joe's Ravens career is over, it's a good spot to revisit. Here are Joe's career games against AFC teams only. That's 12 games a year: 3/4 of all of Joe's games. Every year at least 8 of those are against the same opponents as last year: six AFC North + one of the two prior year "same place" games will be picked up by the other AFC division + one of the four prior year division games will be picked up as a "same place" game. The other four, I bet there's some repetition year to year, but I haven't examined it.

So what I'm saying is, Joe's AFC-game stats are a good lens to look at his play year by year. Some statistical weirdness gets filtered out: not just the distinct horribleness of the 2014 AFC South defenses, but also unusual toughness in years where (say for example) the Seahawks, Niners & Rams all have tough Ds and we play that division. In the AFC it's mostly the same teams year over year, and more frequent repetition among the teams that aren't represented every year.

So here you are:

Joe Flacco career stats vs AFC teams (reg season)
Year Comp Att YD TD INT Pct Y/Att Rating

2008 198 323 2341 9 9 61.3% 7.2 81.0

2009 238 371 2627 13 9 64.2% 7.1 86.6

2010 225 367 2645 17 8 61.3% 7.2 89.6

2011 210 368 2469 15 10 57.1% 6.7 79.9

2012 237 406 2860 15 8 58.4% 7.0 84.2

2013 277 461 2941 13 17 60.1% 6.4 72.8

2014 267 446 2852 16 10 59.9% 6.4 81.2

2015 180 276 1897 10 7 65.2% 6.9 86.6

2016 341 513 3325 16 14 66.5% 6.5 83.5

2017 256 405 2323 14 10 63.2% 5.7 79.9

2018 187 301 1994 9 4 62.1% 6.6 85.9

So. What stands out about this data?

To me, it's how utterly average Joe's season with Kubiak looks, in context with his other AFC seasons.

Passer rating is right in the middle of Joe's career ratings: 7th best out of 11
Completion% the 3rd worst of Joe's career.
Yards-per-attempt the 2nd worst of Joe's career.

Frankly, the Kubiak season is not even a good one in Joe's career. The TD% (not shown) is above average: tied for 4th-best in Joe's career. The INT% (not shown) is pretty good: tied for 3rd in Joe's career. But otherwise – Joe's completion%, yards-per, and passer rating that season were all below his career averages.

But that was masked by how incredibly terrible the NFC South defenses were in the four games we played against them. Against those teams, Joe completed:

71% at 10.5 yards-per with 11 TDs and 2 INTs, for a passer rating of 131.5
Ridiculous. For reference, that was statistically better than the numbers Joe put up in the 2012 postseason. Those totals were so good that they raised Joe's overall season stats all the way up to – his second-best season statistically, after 2010. That's your clue to how ordinary Joe's play was against AFC teams. These otherwordly totals were not enough to make 2014 Joe's best season.

Joe just didn't play that great under Kubiak. Not any better than he had under Cam or Caldwell; in most ways, not even as well.

There is one area of Joe's game that distinctly improved after Kubiak got ahold of him. Just one: but a pretty damn important one. Joe cut his sack percentage way down under Kubiak. And it stayed down.

Joe Flacco career sack% vs AFC teams (reg season)
Year Sack%

2008 6.6%

2009 7.0%

2010 7.1%

2011 6.4%

2012 9.0%

2013 7.6%

2014 3.7%

2015 4.2%

2016 4.8%

2017 3.8%

2018 4.1%

Look at that! Joe (or Kubes' scheme) cut Joe's sack pctg in half! And it stayed low for the rest of Joe's career. Prior to /14, no season below about 6-&-a-half; after, no season as high as 5. All but one below 4.3. That's a really dramatic change.

What gives?

Well actually, it's pretty obvious what gives if we look at the whole picture and think a second. Here's what I think are the two key stats:

Joe Flacco select career stats vs AFC teams (reg season)
Year Y/Att Sack%

2008 7.2 6.6%

2009 7.1 7.0%

2010 7.2 7.1%

2011 6.7 6.4%

2012 7.0 9.0%

2013 6.4 7.6%

2014 6.4 3.7%

2015 6.9 4.2%

2016 6.5 4.8%

2017 5.7 3.8%

2018 6.6 4.1%

Do you see it?

Under Cam, Joe never had a yards-per-attempt below 6.7, and 4 out of 5 were over 7.
After Kubiak, he never had one higher than 6.9.

Under Cam, Joe never had a sack% below about 6-&-a-half, and 3 out of 5 were over 7.
After Kubiak, he never had one higher than 4.8.

It's the difference between Cam's system and the purer WCO. Under Cam, Joe threw it deeper and took more sacks. Under Kubes, Joe threw it shorter and avoided sacks.

Kubes is the coach who gave us Captain Checkdown.

Year	Comp	Att	YD	TD	INT	Pct	Y/Att	Rating
2008	198	323	2341	9	9	61.3%	7.2	81.0
2009	238	371	2627	13	9	64.2%	7.1	86.6
2010	225	367	2645	17	8	61.3%	7.2	89.6
2011	210	368	2469	15	10	57.1%	6.7	79.9
2012	237	406	2860	15	8	58.4%	7.0	84.2
2013	277	461	2941	13	17	60.1%	6.4	72.8
2014	267	446	2852	16	10	59.9%	6.4	81.2
2015	180	276	1897	10	7	65.2%	6.9	86.6
2016	341	513	3325	16	14	66.5%	6.5	83.5
2017	256	405	2323	14	10	63.2%	5.7	79.9
2018	187	301	1994	9	4	62.1%	6.6	85.9

Year	Sack%
2008	6.6%
2009	7.0%
2010	7.1%
2011	6.4%
2012	9.0%
2013	7.6%
2014	3.7%
2015	4.2%
2016	4.8%
2017	3.8%
2018	4.1%

Year	Y/Att	Sack%
2008	7.2	6.6%
2009	7.1	7.0%
2010	7.2	7.1%
2011	6.7	6.4%
2012	7.0	9.0%
2013	6.4	7.6%
2014	6.4	3.7%
2015	6.9	4.2%
2016	6.5	4.8%
2017	5.7	3.8%
2018	6.6	4.1%