Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014
We see a dumb list around this time every year.
Do lists like these exist for any purpose OTHER than being proved categorically wrong in a few months?
Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014
San Fran and Denver are the sexy choices...just like they were at the start of the 2012 playoffs :)
Both teams have seemingly loaded up this offseason, but both are not without questions and weaknesses. I think it's fair to predict division winners, but the playoffs themselves have proven to be somewhat of a total crapshoot any more.
If I had to predict the playoff teams now, I'd have:
AFCW - Denver
AFCE - New England
AFCN - Baltimore
AFCS - Houston
WC - Indianapolis
WC - San Diego
NFCW - San Francisco
NFCE - New York
NFCN - Green Bay
NFCS - New Orleans
WC - Atlanta
WC - Seattle
Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014
I'm still pissed at myself for being so lazy and not finding a bookie the week before the Colts game. I was about to put down $50 for us to win it at awesome odds (I forget what it was but it was I believe 24-1). Online gambling is almost impossible and I'm out $2,000 :(. I'd take the Super Bowl win over the money anyday though!
I could care less what Vegas says about us...it's actually better that they doubt us...gives us better odds and an easier chance to win $$$!!!
Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014
Yes i realised this and put £20 on the ravens to win the superbowl at 20/1 which i thought was ridiculous! Imagne being 9th most likely team to win the SB. I worked out there are huge benefits in everyone thinking we are not that good cause we're a small market unfashionable team
I too could care less what bookies and 'experts' say about us esp when it contributes to great odds.
I was surprised to see that we have been the same since before dumervil signed, i would have thought player turnover and draft weekend performance would have an effect on the odds, i decided to put ££s on after we lost all the UFAs before making the under the radar moves thinking that was the best price I could ever get... But prices remain the same, whiich is surprising given that the ravens were a skeleton of a team at the time and now 'look' much more of a 'contender'
Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014
I'm going to lump £30 on the Ravens at 20/1 on my ladbrokes.com account, then transfer the rest of the money I made on us v the Pats and in the Super Bowl and on the Grand National this year back into my bank account before I gamble it all away again on something stupid like Newcastle staying up.
And unlike the guys above me, I couldn't care less about what bookies and 'experts' think.
Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by
akashicrecorder
We see a dumb list around this time every year.
Do lists like these exist for any purpose OTHER than being proved categorically wrong in a few months?
They exist so people can bet. If you believe that it's wrong then use it to make some money
Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014
I pretty much agree with alien race's prognostigations. Maybe trade Cincinati for SD, but that is just splitting hairs. Not sure who will come out of the NFC South, but I would also pick NO over Atlanta. Will be curious to see how injuries impact this, but right now there is a fairly clear delineation between the haves and have nots.
Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by
alienrace
San Fran and Denver are the sexy choices...just like they were at the start of the 2012 playoffs :)
Both teams have seemingly loaded up this offseason, but both are not without questions and weaknesses. I think it's fair to predict division winners, but the playoffs themselves have proven to be somewhat of a total crapshoot any more.
If I had to predict the playoff teams now, I'd have:
AFCW - Denver
AFCE - New England
AFCN - Baltimore
AFCS - Houston
WC - Indianapolis
WC - San Diego
NFCW - San Francisco
NFCE - New York
NFCN - Green Bay
NFCS - New Orleans
WC - Atlanta
WC - Seattle
9 of the same 12 teams from last year is very high. Usually there is a 50% turnover. That doesn't mean it can't happen but at this point I think it's just too early to predict.
Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014
Quote:
Originally Posted by
HoustonRaven
You can't look at Vegas odds as a slight to a team or props for a team.
Lines are not generated to show how good or bad any one team will be.
Lines are generated to make money on both ends. Nothing more.
Exactly right. You can't confuse the "odds" from Vegas with a "probability". Probability is a factor in those odds, but more importantly is spreading the wagering around. The book knows that a lot of people will pick San Fran, Denver, New England with relatively low odds. To get some people to put money down on Houston, New Orleans, Baltimore, NYG they know they have to give better odds. Even though the probability of any of those 4 teams is much closer to the probability of the first 4.