Re: Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst
Quote:
Originally Posted by
GOTA
Hurst had 39 targets. Boyle had 43. That's not much of a difference.
Not much in gross numbers, but Hurst converted more yards on less targets than Boyle. Much higher DVOA, from which I infer more first downs and stuff. Eyeball test confirms Boyle is a plodding pass-catcher and Hurst is more viable downfield.
I think the thing with Hurst, that makes him difficult to place, is that while he's the best all-around player of our TEs, he's not the best at any one thing. He's our second-best blocking TE; Boyle is clearly better. Andrews has made more of a case for himself as a pass-catcher; it's not clear to me that Andrews really is a better receiver, but he did establish himself while Hurst was injured in 2018.
It's weird: if we were in a lot of single-TE formations, then Hurst's versatility would be more valuable. Trotting him out there would tip our hand less to the D, than the other guys. But with 2 TEs on the field almost all the time, if one of them is the blocker and one of them the mover, you can see how Hurst could get leapfrogged. There's a guy better or more established than him in both roles.
Strange situation.
The foot injury in '18 really set him back.
Re: Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst
Re: Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst
Quote:
Originally Posted by
GreatWhiteNorthRaven
If he catches it will be "Fuck no, he came up big in his opportunity for us" instead of "welllllllllll, we have depth and we may get a good return".
Every opportunity isn't created equal.
Preach!
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Re: Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Culex
Now will yall believe me that im Eric DeCosta in disguise?
When we trade up to #2 overall.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Trackmaster
I don't know, that's not really how teams in SB in reality. If you notice, those flash in the pan teams who go all in to try to win it all rarely succeed. The teams who do win SBs are teams who go to the playoffs a lot...and eventually the break though. Look at our Flacco driven teams. 2012 wasn't our best team of the bunch. After years we finally put it together and got it right.
I think that the best formula for rings is to be consistent, pound a ton of trips to the play-offs, and eventually you break through. Just going all-in in the short-term isn't the highest percentage way to get a ring.
Great post. Well put.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ninetysixer
Just imagine what happens if Andrews goes down with an injury next year and your next available pass catching TE is Boyle or a Rookie.
Not to disparage Boyle, who is the best blocking TE in the game right now.
Whatever draft pick we get in return will bolster our depth at a different position. I'm not sure if there's a net gain or loss in injury risk here. To me this doesn't play a huge factor.
This is a tough call. I think a 3rd offers fair-ish value, but I probably wouldn't do the deal at that price.
What we give up:
- 2 more years of very cheap Hurst and 1 more of cheap-ish Hurst
- Probable comp pick (not sure which round, but I'll guess 4th)
- Lose a small amount of cap room due to Hurst's dead money being greater than his cap number (OTC says we lose 43k if traded which is basically nothing, but we don't free up any space to make room for the pick we get in return, so it still cuts into our cap room for the year).
What we gain:
- 4 years of cheap ownership of a player with maybe ~50% shot at being a multi year starter
- Some chance at a comp pick if that draft pick eventually signs elsewhere as a UFA (lower chance than Hurst, and on average probably a lower comp pick when one is earned)
I think it starts to look worthwhile if the offer is a 2nd.
Re: Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst
I’ll freely admit there are some here who get analytics and stats waaay more than me. I’ve just used the “eye test “. That said. Every post or thread about HH results in someone stating that “HH is the best all around TE” or “has the best hands “ “ runs the best routes “. And I’m sure there are pages of stats that back this up.
But ...if this is true ...why doesn’t he get more play time? Why isn’t he a primary target for Lamar? I bag on this coaching staff more than anyone here ...and I’m certain they know more than I /we fans do. They see tape. Practice. Locker room. Games. We see games. Period. Obviously HH ain’t showing out in practice. Or walk throughs. Or whatever. Maybe he makes GRO’s coffee wrong? Maybe he cuts Harbs grass wrong? Whatever it is they don’t feel the same as some of us fans.
Trade this dud. He’s not valued here by the team. He’s never been worth the 1St round pick. Even his college stats arnt impressive. Dude caught 3 TDs in 3 yrs!
Don’t give him away ...but if a decent trade comes ...take it. I’d say a high 3rd and maybe a 5th/6th
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Re: Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Laxdad24
I’ll freely admit there are some here who get analytics and stats waaay more than me. I’ve just used the “eye test “. That said. Every post or thread about HH results in someone stating that “HH is the best all around TE” or “has the best hands “ “ runs the best routes “. And I’m sure there are pages of stats that back this up.
But ...if this is true ...why doesn’t he get more play time? Why isn’t he a primary target for Lamar? I bag on this coaching staff more than anyone here ...and I’m certain they know more than I /we fans do. They see tape. Practice. Locker room. Games. We see games. Period. Obviously HH ain’t showing out in practice. Or walk throughs. Or whatever. Maybe he makes GRO’s coffee wrong? Maybe he cuts Harbs grass wrong? Whatever it is they don’t feel the same as some of us fans.
Trade this dud. He’s not valued here by the team. He’s never been worth the 1St round pick. Even his college stats arnt impressive. Dude caught 3 TDs in 3 yrs!
Don’t give him away ...but if a decent trade comes ...take it. I’d say a high 3rd and maybe a 5th/6th
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Trade Hurst for top value. Get Vernon Davis out of retirement and BOOM Superbowl!
Or put another 20 lbs on Miles Boykin and make him a tightend.
Re: Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst
To be clear, i was never a fan of the pick and couldnt believe we took him in the first. But the way our offense runs through heavy TEs i think it is essential to keep what we have in tact. Now he does need to be utilized more especially with his athleticsm. That being said, if NE wants to give us a 1st and 3rd for our 2nd or something that is hard to say no, then go for it. But we better have a plan to replace what he offers, having that TE group is what makes us so dangerous. It would just depend on what we do with the picks and at this point i do trust EDC. I think HH will have a good year if he is on the roster.
Re: Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Laxdad24
I’ll freely admit there are some here who get analytics and stats waaay more than me. I’ve just used the “eye test “. That said. Every post or thread about HH results in someone stating that “HH is the best all around TE” or “has the best hands “ “ runs the best routes “. And I’m sure there are pages of stats that back this up.
No, actually there aren't stats that back-up the claims made about HH. It's just people stating their opinion as fact until people give up arguing about it
I would try to push for a 2nd rounder but would accept a 3rd
Re: Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst
Quote:
Originally Posted by
edromeo
No, actually there aren't stats that back-up the claims made about HH. It's just people stating their opinion as fact until people give up arguing about it
I would try to push for a 2nd rounder but would accept a 3rd
Third round pick wouldnt be shit. Bring less to the roster than what HH does. Most dont pan out anyway.
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Re: Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst
Quote:
Originally Posted by
stevez51
Trade Hurst, then Andrews gets hurt and all you have is Boyle. No thanks.
Does everyone forget what happened when Pitta got hurt in PS practice.
I don't yet have an opinion. But Devil's advocate says they could still use a fourth round pick on a TE to replace Hurst and may not suffer because of it.
Consider Andrews was a third. Pitta was a fourth. Boyle was undrafted, Dickson was a third. Kelce was a third round pick. Ertz as round two. Kittle was a fifth rounder. Hooper third round. Cook was in the third. Burton was undrafted.
You get the idea.
It begs the question why would a smart guy like Belichick trade for Hurst then?
He does have certain skills that Roman's scheme doesn't particularly take advantage of. Better to send him to where he can prosper, if that's the case, and replace him with a cheaper scheme fit.
I won't have an opinion until I see what is really offered not just rumored. A day two pick or sending Hurst and a pick for Ngakoue might make me say, good deal.
Re: Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TDL1000
Third round pick wouldnt be shit. Bring less to the roster than what HH does. Most dont pan out anyway.
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Mark Andrews says “Hello”.
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