Speaking of polls, Romney leading among WOMEN in new CBS/NYT poll.

**Galen Sevinne** · 05-15-2012, 10:39 PM

Originally Posted by StingerNLG

I think if these national numbers continue to swing the way they are, the swing states are going to move as well. And I want Galen to answer why states that Obama won in 08 like Wisconsin, Florida, NC, VA, and such are considered toss-ups? He is missing my point here that once again, these are places that Obama should be running away with against the supposed "unelectable" Romney. How is this election even a race if Obama is so awesome and Romney is so horrible and evil?

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1. You really think Obama should be running away with the states VA, NC and Fla? Running away? I am glad you are at least on the right page now. Feel free to let me know that last time a Dem. won all three of those states? How many times has a Dem won 2 of those states? Obama winning all three of those in 08 was historic and probably won't happen again for a while. That being said, Obama leads in the latest polls from those three states as well as the RCP aggregates from those states.

2. Even giving Romney those three states, which it is highly unlikely Romney wins VA with the hispanic and the NOVA vote, he is still close to 50 votes short! Giving him VA too, it is unlikely he wins Ohio at this point which makes it just about inpossible to win the general. But give him Ohio and he is still 27 votes short. Starting to see how uber silly it is when you come on here jocking your national poll? Romney has a huge uphill climb and I don't see any tricks up his sleeve at this point especially when he is always countering Obama's previous move.

Romney has picked up his expected bump from becoming the presumptive nominee but he is still behind....far behind.

Did I answer your questions, sir?

**HoustonRaven** · 05-16-2012, 09:13 AM

Mitt opens an 8 point lead in NC among likely voters, per Rasmussen.

The last time they polled in NC it was dead even.

Safe to say Mitts number is 185 now.

**Galen Sevinne** · 05-16-2012, 12:22 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Mitt opens an 8 point lead in NC among likely voters, per Rasmussen.

The last time they polled in NC it was dead even.

Safe to say Mitts number is 185 now.

Whoa...not so fast there bro...or are you more a brah? Nah you are definitely a bro guy. Anyway, I wouldn't go uber jocking Romney and his NC (15) just yet. PPP is out with their latest and have Obama +1. PPP, in my experience is about +1 handicap in favor of the Dems while Rassmussen is minimum +3 in favor of the Repugs. Meshing that out, we are at about Romney +2.5 in NC.

**NCRAVEN** · 05-16-2012, 12:26 PM

Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne

Whoa...not so fast there bro...or are you more a brah? Nah you are definitely a bro guy. Anyway, I wouldn't go uber jocking Romney and his NC (15) just yet. PPP is out with their latest and have Obama +1. PPP, in my experience is about +1 handicap in favor of the Dems while Rassmussen is minimum +3 in favor of the Repugs. Meshing that out, we are at about Romney +2.5 in NC.

PPP (D) polls registered voters not likely voters, and as stated many times, they had the Dems keeping the house in 2010.

I will say that I am somewhat impressed though that they have Wisconsin +1 for Obama, gotta wonder how credible that is...

**HoustonRaven** · 05-16-2012, 01:10 PM

According to PPP, it's still a four point drop from their NC poll from a month ago.

I give almost zero credence to RV polls anyhow, even if it is in Mitts favor.

**NCRAVEN** · 05-16-2012, 01:44 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

According to PPP, it's still a four point drop from their NC poll from a month ago.

I give almost zero credence to RV polls anyhow, even if it is in Mitts favor.

Same here.

Just take a look at any poll on Realclearpolitics that list who was polled, any one that has adults or registered voters is way off from ones where likely voters are polled and are all have similar results (Romney or Obama +1/+2).

**StingerNLG** · 05-16-2012, 02:52 PM

Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne

1. You really think Obama should be running away with the states VA, NC and Fla? Running away? I am glad you are at least on the right page now. Feel free to let me know that last time a Dem. won all three of those states? How many times has a Dem won 2 of those states? Obama winning all three of those in 08 was historic and probably won't happen again for a while. That being said, Obama leads in the latest polls from those three states as well as the RCP aggregates from those states.

Well, first, as Houston pointed out, he is no longer leading in NC. So as I said, the polls are continuing to move.

Now then answer my question. Why is Obama not leading these outside the margin of error then in the other states as you claim Romney won't win VA anyway.

2. Even giving Romney those three states, which it is highly unlikely Romney wins VA with the hispanic and the NOVA vote, he is still close to 50 votes short! Giving him VA too, it is unlikely he wins Ohio at this point which makes it just about inpossible to win the general. But give him Ohio and he is still 27 votes short. Starting to see how uber silly it is when you come on here jocking your national poll? Romney has a huge uphill climb and I don't see any tricks up his sleeve at this point especially when he is always countering Obama's previous move.

So wait, you are saying it's unlikely, then why isn't Obama running away with VA with all those Hispanics and such? Why are we in the margin of error.

And again, the NC polls moved. Are you suggesting state polls aren't going to move with the National polls? Hmmm, then you might want to think long and hard to explain how Romney has now pulled even with Obama in Wisconsin as well:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news...l?ocid=twitter

Oops.

Romney has picked up his expected bump from becoming the presumptive nominee but he is still behind....far behind.

Let me understand. After a month-long campaign by the President and just about every news network out there about Romney and the Republican's "war on women", Romney's fake high school bullying article, all the Bain capital stuff, and all the attacks on Romney's faith; Romney's poll numbers have begun to move up and Obama's have moved down. And he is now pulling even or ahead in swing state polls. And your answer to all that is simply that he became the presumptive nominee?

Did I answer your questions, sir?

Oh, you did. It's still living in a Liberal fantasy land, but yes you answered them.

**Galen Sevinne** · 05-16-2012, 08:28 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

According to PPP, it's still a four point drop from their NC poll from a month ago.

I give almost zero credence to RV polls anyhow, even if it is in Mitts favor.

It's 6 months until the election. To give zero credence to rv and have only allegiance to lv polls at this point is not understanding polling too well. There is a reason polls begin to switch to lv at the 2 to 4 week prior to the election timeframe. The fact that scott rassmussen relies on lv is why his polls are always weighted anywhere from +3 to +5 republican. Republicans generally express a greater likelihood to vote than dems. Im not sure why that is but might have something to do with republicans having a greater self-assessment of patriotism than your average dem or might have something to do with republican voter base being heavier at the older ages with dems heavier at the younger ages...just my guess. Either way, at 6 months out of the election to think any pollster can accurately rate likelihood of vote is unrealistic. But you will always get what you like from rassmussen! For those joking me for commenting on rassmussen when Obama is up in his polls is because Obama being up in a rassmussen poll is almost equivalent to faux noise saying something positive about Obama.

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**HoustonRaven** · 05-17-2012, 10:48 AM

So now polls cannot be accurate because it's six months out.

New meme noted.

**Galen Sevinne** · 05-17-2012, 11:20 AM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

So now polls cannot be accurate because it's six months out.

New meme noted.

Exactly. I was very black and white. Yes or no. Right or wrong. I didn't express any nuance about how at 6 months it is controversial to expect one to accurately determine a "likely voter". No i didn't say that at all. I said "polls can't be accurate because its six months out".

I did this so when the next rassmussen poll that comes out in favor of Obama I want you can get your uber bluster on about how I previously said at 6 months polls aren't accurate so the rest of the crew, who are just learning about EVs, can step in line with your "new meme noted". I love that.

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**NCRAVEN** · 05-17-2012, 11:25 AM

How about this. When it comes to polls we just agree that they are going to go up and down between now and Nov 6t. If they are showing anything right now it's that it's a 45/45 split with 10% unsure.

**HoustonRaven** · 05-17-2012, 11:30 AM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

How about this. When it comes to polls we just agree that they are going to go up and down between now and Nov 6t. If they are showing anything right now it's that it's a 45/45 split with 10% unsure.

Agreed.

Much better than Galen's sliding scale of poll data accuracy. Just too hard to keep up with his different reasoning from week to week.