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  1. #37
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    While I do not share your disdain in the polls in general, that new CBS / NYT Poll does seem suspect.

    I don't buy a 10 point lead in Ohio and that poll seems to have skewed the average up quite a bit.





  2. #38
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    While I do not share your disdain in the polls in general, that new CBS / NYT Poll does seem suspect.

    I don't buy a 10 point lead in Ohio and that poll seems to have skewed the average up quite a bit.
    Same with a 14 point lead in Wisconsin.

    I've been reading a lot on polling methodology lately, Rasmussen is the only that will hold any water with me from here on out. And I stress any, because they have a pretty small sample size.





  3. #39
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    A guy was on TV this morning, I didn't get his name, but he said don't pay attention to them because it's
    mostly the media pimping their favs and they're so skewed with unlikely voters. He said you really have to
    average them all out.

    He had Florida even which Mitt must have to win and Ohio was even too.

    So don't believe all these big leads for OBY.

    Bottom line, with the margin of error, it's a dead heat but someone will rise after the debates. That is
    where Mitt must shine and when the rest of the undecideds will make up their minds.





  4. #40
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    OBY only needs 5 more elect votes to win according to this
    latest real clear map. Ohio is in the light blue but Florida is
    still up for grabs.

    Even Rasmussen has OBY up by +2 in the general polls as
    every poll on this site has OBY up by at least +2, some
    more.


    Amazing, completely amazing.


    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html





  5. #41
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    No change in status of the toss ups, but they polls are showing all the states are tightening or Romney opening a lead.

    I've said it before, I wasn't buying the polls (doesn't mean I was right) so I wonder if they're getting accurate now for credibility or the debate made that much of a difference. Maybe both?

    http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/





  6. #42
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    A second debate success is crucial for both candidates. This may very well sway the election one way of the other.

    And not to beat a dad horse, but damn, I wish now more than ever Mitt pounced after the healthcare ruling. This could be a blow out of epic proportions had he handled that better. Instead we still have a nail biter.





  7. #43
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    A second debate success is crucial for both candidates. This may very well sway the election one way of the other.

    And not to beat a dad horse, but damn, I wish now more than ever Mitt pounced after the healthcare ruling. This could be a blow out of epic proportions had he handled that better. Instead we still have a nail biter.
    I just hope going forward he and Ryan bring it up more in the debates, ESPECIALLY the IPAB.





  8. #44
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Penn and Wisc have moved to toss up, though in Rasmussen he has BHO at 51% for both.

    I would also say keep an eye on Oregon and Minnesota.





  9. #45
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    Penn and Wisc have moved to toss up, though in Rasmussen he has BHO at 51% for both.

    I would also say keep an eye on Oregon and Minnesota.
    You have a better chance of finding wild peacocks in your car tonight than Obama losing Oregon.





  10. #46
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    You have a better chance of finding wild peacocks in your car tonight than Obama losing Oregon.
    I smell a wager...





  11. #47
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    I smell a wager...
    It would be better if you simply drop whatever money you wish to wager on the ground and walk away.





  12. #48
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    It would be better if you simply drop whatever money you wish to wager on the ground and walk away.
    Haha. To be fair, I said keep an eye on. I did not say he would win it.

    But, what little polling there has been has Obama only at 50%. He won it by 17 points, he also won states like Nev, Mich, Wis by 17 all are now toss-ups. So it's not inconceivable.





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