Here are some Trends/Patterns that I haven't seen much attention paid to ...

[Golden Era at The U]

I wrote about 'em here, and there's been some implicit mention here of them, but I've not seen a lot of discussion of them much less any sound analysis on them, although perhaps I missed it here.

http://www.ravens24x7.com./columns/P...THE-MEDIA-HYPE

I'll include more detail than I put in the piece, but the fact is that Brady has really been below average in the playoffs since '07 when the Giants beat them in the SB. And FWIW, I was actually on record predicting a very close low scoring game with the Giants having as good a shot at winning as the Pats did due to the matchup. I don't say that to pat myself on the back, I say it because if you ask me, the onus is on the Pats to beat the Ravens, not visa versa as the media is making it out to be.

Since the divisional game in '07, and discounting last week's game v. D-II Denver, here are Brady's stats:

2007 AFCCG v. SD: 22 for 33, 66.7%, 209 Yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 66.4 Rating

2007 SB v. Giants: 29 for 48, 60.4%, 266 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 82.5 Rating

2009 WC Game v. Ravens: 23 for 42, 54.8%, 154 Yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 49.1 Rating

2010 D-Round v. Jets: 29 for 45, 64.4%, 299 Yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 89.0 Rating

Average game: 232 Yards, 61.3%, 1.75 TDs, 1.5 INTs, 71.8 Rating

This is not even remotely impressive! For Brady and Mr. "Run up the score against the weak and feeble during the Regular Season" Belicheat, this is horrid!


Meanwhile, Let's look at the Pats scoring in those same games and we'll include the D-Round Jax game from '07 too:

'07 D-Round v. Jags: 31 points
'07 AFCCG v. SD: 21 points
'07 SB v. Giants: 14 points
'09 WC Game v. Ravens: 14 points
'10 D-round Game v. Jets: 21 points

Of those 20.2 points-per-game, below average by NFL standards, only 10 were in the 1st Quarters of those games, 27 were in the 4th Quarters of those games, meaning that 74 points in those five games were in the first 3 Quarters of play, or fewer than 15 points through 3 Quarters.

What kind of nimrod thinks this stuff is impressive.

This season vs. the only two teams that were even close to as good as the Ravens the Pats put up a paltry 17 and 20 points against this season, both times in losses, and with 24 of those 37 points coming in the 4th Quarter as well.

Then there's the litany of average to fair RBs and RB tandems/trios that hung 100-yards rushing on the Pats all season long. Why on earth would anyone think that Rice/Williams won't get 100-yards easily.

And if the Pats don't go up early, who's to say that the Ravens can't run up the score first.

I just don't get it. If I were the Pats and their fans, I'd be wearing brown pants up until game time!

As I said in the piece, I see no reason why the Pats shouldn't score 27 or more and I don't see why the Pats should score that many, based upon trends/patterns established that are relevant to this game.

Consider too that the Pats' rushing game and D aren't even as good as they were in '07, '09, and '10.

The onus is on the Pats to even win this game much less cover a 7 or 7 1/2 point spread.

[dscola31]

I wrote about 'em here, and there's been some implicit mention here of them, but I've not seen a lot of discussion of them much less any sound analysis on them, although perhaps I missed it here.

http://www.ravens24x7.com./columns/P...THE-MEDIA-HYPE

I'll include more detail than I put in the piece, but the fact is that Brady has really been below average in the playoffs since '07 when the Giants beat them in the SB. And FWIW, I was actually on record predicting a very close low scoring game with the Giants having as good a shot at winning as the Pats did due to the matchup. I don't say that to pat myself on the back, I say it because if you ask me, the onus is on the Pats to beat the Ravens, not visa versa as the media is making it out to be.

Since the divisional game in '07, and discounting last week's game v. D-II Denver, here are Brady's stats:

2007 AFCCG v. SD: 22 for 33, 66.7%, 209 Yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 66.4 Rating

2007 SB v. Giants: 29 for 48, 60.4%, 266 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 82.5 Rating

2009 WC Game v. Ravens: 23 for 42, 54.8%, 154 Yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 49.1 Rating

2010 D-Round v. Jets: 29 for 45, 64.4%, 299 Yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 89.0 Rating

Average game: 232 Yards, 61.3%, 1.75 TDs, 1.5 INTs, 71.8 Rating

This is not even remotely impressive! For Brady and Mr. "Run up the score against the weak and feeble during the Regular Season" Belicheat, this is horrid!


Meanwhile, Let's look at the Pats scoring in those same games and we'll include the D-Round Jax game from '07 too:

'07 D-Round v. Jags: 31 points
'07 AFCCG v. SD: 21 points
'07 SB v. Giants: 14 points
'09 WC Game v. Ravens: 14 points
'10 D-round Game v. Jets: 21 points

Of those 20.2 points-per-game, below average by NFL standards, only 10 were in the 1st Quarters of those games, 27 were in the 4th Quarters of those games, meaning that 74 points in those five games were in the first 3 Quarters of play, or fewer than 15 points through 3 Quarters.

What kind of nimrod thinks this stuff is impressive.

This season vs. the only two teams that were even close to as good as the Ravens the Pats put up a paltry 17 and 20 points against this season, both times in losses, and with 24 of those 37 points coming in the 4th Quarter as well.

Then there's the litany of average to fair RBs and RB tandems/trios that hung 100-yards rushing on the Pats all season long. Why on earth would anyone think that Rice/Williams won't get 100-yards easily.

And if the Pats don't go up early, who's to say that the Ravens can't run up the score first.

I just don't get it. If I were the Pats and their fans, I'd be wearing brown pants up until game time!

As I said in the piece, I see no reason why the Pats shouldn't score 27 or more and I don't see why the Pats should score that many, based upon trends/patterns established that are relevant to this game.

Consider too that the Pats' rushing game and D aren't even as good as they were in '07, '09, and '10.

The onus is on the Pats to even win this game much less cover a 7 or 7 1/2 point spread.

Good post

[Golden Era at The U]

Thanks!

[Golden Era at The U]

Good post

... and why that's all of a sudden going to mysteriously change is beyond me. I suppose it could happen, I suppose Brady and Gronk could have their best days ever. Maybe I'll run out and by a Powerball ticket just in case.

[dscola31]

... and why that's all of a sudden going to mysteriously change is beyond me. I suppose it could happen, I suppose Brady and Gronk could have their best days ever. Maybe I'll run out and by a Powerball ticket just in case.

I know folks say not to listen to what the media says but some things are just so obvious. Like the fact that they all compare Flacco to QBs that all have over 7 years exp. Or How the whole team is old. Or How about most of Flacco's terrible numbers in the playoffs came in 2losses. Vs Pitt in 08 and Indy in 09.

But I guess research is just too hard sometimes.

[JMUpurkfool]

Well considering that their most recent performance was 6 TDs by Brady and 45 points, I'll refer to that first. I get that the Bronco's defense isn't all that but we can't just throw out their only playoff game from THIS season.

[goodandfast]

Well considering that their most recent performance was 6 TDs by Brady and 45 points, I'll refer to that first. I get that the Bronco's defense isn't all that but we can't just throw out their only playoff game from THIS season.

I disagree. The Pats consistently beat up on losers and consistently don't have to play winners. We will be the third "winning" team they've faced all season. They are 0-2 against real teams.

[ballhawk]

Great post. send it to CBS. They should use it in a stat line during the broadcast.

[Galen Sevinne]

It seems as the week has gone on there has been more a "regression to the mean" effect. I see more commentary about possible ways the Ravens might win and less commentary on how how much the Ravens sucked against Houston and how the Patriots touched the arc of Christ against Denver. I thought this would happen as the week progressed. I am sure Brady and Belichick feel the pressure. These guys aren't dumb and they know they have lost some of their mystique in the past couple years. This can't sit well with them. Another loss to the Ravens at home would be more damaging to them than a loss by the Ravens in N.E.

[Welka_fan]

Wow, you'd make a great car salesman, bro.

How do you INCLUDE the game where he was returning from injury, still not the same, the game after Wes Welker went down for the year on an offense where he clearly only had 2 targets?....(vs baltimore)

But NOT include the games before and after your sample there, both NFL Record-setting performances (6 tds vs Denver, NFL Playoff Completion % vs Jaguars). Talk about bias to make your ##'s look good lol. Because you declare denver division 2 yeah? Same with jags game? Because you don't approve we don't put them in sample? Got it. Include those 2 games please into your average and come back with your BS.

FWIW, I give Giants credit for a phenomenal performance in the SB from a ridiculous (all-time) pass rush. The Jets had one of the best defensive units in recent memory and played the game of their life (as good as they ever played. Alot of jets fans would agree. You can add some !!'s to that with the fact that they were so dedicated to that game that htey didn't even show up to the following AFCCG till halftime lol). I (and most pats fans) won't argue that we fell prey to two all-time great defensive efforts in those 2 games, but don't try to make that bigger then it is.

[Golden Era at The U]

Well considering that their most recent performance was 6 TDs by Brady and 45 points, I'll refer to that first. I get that the Bronco's defense isn't all that but we can't just throw out their only playoff game from THIS season.

I'll disagree with that, I think we certainly can throw it out. The Broncos were not a playoff caliber team.

It's actually good that the Pats had that game in a sense because it's causing this overreaction. The fans in NE are going to be suicidal if they lose.

[NC Raven]

FWIW, I give Giants credit for a phenomenal performance in the SB from a ridiculous (all-time) pass rush. The Jets had one of the best defensive units in recent memory

So I see a trend here. Strong defensive teams will shut the Pats down in the playoffs. You left out the 14 point turnover fest against the Ravens in 2010, so that would be three times a top level defensive team shut them down in recent memory. Luckily you're not facing a top defense this week.. oh wait.

Then there's the Ravens who -- unlike the 2000 team that didn't score a TD for 5 games (who the media still thinks this is) -- scored 29 or more points 6 times, including against strong defenses like the Jets (34), Steelers (35) and Texans (29 in the regular season matchup). Now we draw the #31 defense in the NFL. Think we won't score 30? Better hope not, because the Pats won't.