Obama = Carter

**HoustonRaven** · 07-21-2009, 01:03 PM

I was mocked by Galen when I made this prediction.

Granted, there are still many political lifetimes between now and the next POTUS election.

However, I told you history was the best indicator with Obama and that he will soon be viewed as Carter Jr.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washing...al-tracker.htm

Now he is tracking worse than Carter.

Politics is a cycle. Carter was the outrage candidate after Nixon / Ford. Obama was the outrage candidate after W and is headed down that same path.

**jonboy79** · 07-21-2009, 02:13 PM

I wish he were only as bad as Carter.

**Galen Sevinne** · 07-21-2009, 04:03 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I was mocked by Galen when I made this prediction.

Granted, there are still many political lifetimes between now and the next POTUS election.

However, I told you history was the best indicator with Obama and that he will soon be viewed as Carter Jr.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washing...al-tracker.htm

Now he is tracking worse than Carter.

Politics is a cycle. Carter was the outrage candidate after Nixon / Ford. Obama was the outrage candidate after W and is headed down that same path.

I will continue to mock you as mostly bluster of the volcanic type.

According to the chart that shows Obama's epic fall as an "outrage candidate":

Obama:

April 19, 2008 Gallup @ 63%
July 22, 2008 Gallup @ 56%

Same Chart with your hero Ronnie R.

April 10, 1981 Gallup @ 68%
July 13, 1981 Gallup @ 55%
Jan 27, 1983 Gallup @ 35%

The truth is Obama's poll figures are pretty predictable as every President has experienced a similar path. The exceptions are the two Bushs with "W" learning from his dad that good religious crusade always pads the pockets at the polls.

Conservatives are so giddy at anything that might reflect poorly on Obama at the 5 month mark that it is really sad. He is facing maybe the most challenging political landscape in decades and is holding the predictable polling trend. Keep your pants on...the economy is sure to rebound and the numbers will rise just about around 2010.

There is a significant part of his sinking polling numbers that reflect liberals not being satisfied with his more centrist attempts at climate legislation, health care reform, Iraq and gay rights. While those negative opinions might show up at polling data, they will never show up at the actual polls. In other words the far left is upset at Obama and will voice that opinion on the phone but they will still cast a vote for him as well as democrats.

You are being a tad dramatic but what else would one expect from our friend down in Houston?

**jonboy79** · 07-21-2009, 04:24 PM

Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne

There is a significant part of his sinking polling numbers that reflect liberals not being satisfied with his more centrist attempts at climate legislation, health care reform, Iraq and gay rights. While those negative opinions might show up at polling data, they will never show up at the actual polls. In other words the far left is upset at Obama and will voice that opinion on the phone but they will still cast a vote for him as well as democrats.

You are being a tad dramatic but what else would one expect from our friend down in Houston?

You have literally GOT TO BE JOKING? Bush was a Liberal, bordering on centrist, Obama has done noithing, even resembling Centrist. He has been locking the Rep's out of meetings over laws, passed one liberal spending bill after another and jumped on the Al Gore profiteering machine.

**effo5231** · 07-21-2009, 04:34 PM

Originally Posted by jonboy79

You have literally GOT TO BE JOKING? Bush was a Liberal, bordering on centrist.

Most wrong thing ever. Seriously, if I were to say "Pink unicorns live in my garage." That would be less factually inaccurate than "Bush was liberal", despite me not even having a garage.

**jonboy79** · 07-21-2009, 04:53 PM

Originally Posted by effo5231

Most wrong thing ever. Seriously, if I were to say "Pink unicorns live in my garage." That would be less factually inaccurate than "Bush was liberal", despite me not even having a garage.

Did you ever care to look at his budgets? Spending? He certainly ain't no conservative.
Fiscal Nature is a voting issue. I could give a rat's ass what a president's social policies are..... they are meaningless. I wish people would start voting for real reasons instead of Abortion, gay marriage and the like. We might actualy get some good presidents.

Saying Obama is a centrist is far less truthful and factual.

**effo5231** · 07-21-2009, 05:05 PM

Originally Posted by jonboy79

Did you ever care to look at his budgets? Spending? He certainly ain't no conservative.
Fiscal Nature is a voting issue. I could give a rat's ass what a president's social policies are..... they are meaningless. I wish people would start voting for real reasons instead of Abortion, gay marriage and the like. We might actualy get some good presidents.

Saying Obama is a centrist is far less truthful and factual.

Social policies are meaningless? So you have no problem with allowing gay marriage and abortion on demand for women and underage girls? Or conversely, you'd be perfectly ok with a reestablishment of Jim Crow laws and the disenfranchisement of women and minorities?

**Galen Sevinne** · 07-21-2009, 05:08 PM

Originally Posted by jonboy79

Did you ever care to look at his budgets? Spending? He certainly ain't no conservative.
Fiscal Nature is a voting issue. I could give a rat's ass what a president's social policies are..... they are meaningless. I wish people would start voting for real reasons instead of Abortion, gay marriage and the like. We might actualy get some good presidents.

Saying Obama is a centrist is far less truthful and factual.

I never said he was a centrist. I said he is losing some in the polls to true progressives who highly supported him early on because he has gone more to the center on the environment, health care, gay rights, use of the military...these are the issues that progressives pay attention to as they are what determines quality of life. If you don't see that, you are not paying attention.

**jonboy79** · 07-21-2009, 05:25 PM

Originally Posted by effo5231

Social policies are meaningless? So you have no problem with allowing gay marriage and abortion on demand for women and underage girls? Or conversely, you'd be perfectly ok with a reestablishment of Jim Crow laws and the disenfranchisement of women and minorities?

I place them all FAR behind the economy in a moment like this. Especially since they should be states rights.

When NORMAL people are scrambling to put food on the table, you are correct I could care less if Gay people get to get married.
Abortion, if outlawed here, will be done in Mexico, Canada or simply some back alley "clinic".

**HoustonRaven** · 07-22-2009, 10:18 AM

I never said it was epic nor was I being dramatic.

The number are what they are. Nice spin attempt though. When showing Obama's drop, you list the starting point of April, not mentioning his approval numbers when elected. I watch MSNBC too and you might want to branch out. Every talking point you have is almost word for word from them.

Effo -- are you arguing that Bush was a conservative? I certainly hope not. There is a reason he fell below 20% approval and that's because he lost the conservative base. It was folks like me, still pissed at the GOP for moving left, that are the catalyst for the GOP's woes right now. I, and many other conservatives like me, have not been registered (R) in quite some time. Don't confuse political party for political ideology.

Back to Galen and his spin, David Brooks has said it best, so here it is for your enjoyment.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/op...=2&ref=opinion

You're right Galen, it's very early in the show. As I said in my post that started this thread (which you've seemed to miss) if that there are a thousand political lifetimes between now and 2012.

The only thing I am gleeful about is that the Dems are rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Their refusal to realize just how bad things are for them is EXACTLY like that of the GOP in 2005-6.

Again, it will be history that will bite you in the ass.

**Galen Sevinne** · 07-22-2009, 11:52 AM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I never said it was epic nor was I being dramatic.

Comparing Obama to Carter after 6 months is dramatic.

The number are what they are. Nice spin attempt though. When showing Obama's drop, you list the starting point of April, not mentioning his approval numbers when elected. I watch MSNBC too and you might want to branch out. Every talking point you have is almost word for word from them.

The numbers I used were a fair comparison to Reagan as far as trajectory and timing. So add the additional 2% to get Obama to 65% where he was when elected. It makes no difference. Fine compare him to Carter but recognize that Reagan had the same trajectory. If you are making a case on this chart, gget back to me when Obama is below 35% where your hero Reagan dipped to. The bottom line is, as is often the case, the point you made is easily dismissed with minimal intellectual effort and you come back with more rearranging chairs on the titanic and history is cause and effect type mentality.