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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
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    Clayton,NC
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    7,340

    Is predictibilty the problem?



    For the record, I'm not complaining about the win. Just looking at areas the team could improve.

    I know the Ravens hired a statistician in the offseason to look for trends in opposing teams playcalling.

    Wondering if other teams are doing this against us. I ask because I feel like I picked up on something that has held true for awhile. Anytime the Ravens have an incomplete pass on 1st down, it's ALWAYS (or damn close to it) a run on 2nd down.

    I'd like to know if anyone has actual numbers on this or any other trends that teams are picking up on against us.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  2. #2

    Re: Is predictibilty the problem?

    You don't need to be a statistician to know what Cam is going to do. That last 3rd & 2, I said to my wife, watch this moron call a pass instead of a run.




  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
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    Clayton,NC
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    7,340

    Re: Is predictibilty the problem?

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Silver View Post
    You don't need to be a statistician to know what Cam is going to do. That last 3rd & 2, I said to my wife, watch this moron call a pass instead of a run.
    Haha. While that's pretty accurate, I'd like to know if there are things were doing that are as predictable as the sun coming up.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  4. #4

    Re: Is predictibilty the problem?

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    Haha. While that's pretty accurate, I'd like to know if there are things were doing that are as predictable as the sun coming up.
    I am sure there is. Defenses seem to know what we are going to do before we do. Then every now and then, we get a massive yard gaining play and that is when the trend is bucked.




  5. #5

    Re: Is predictibilty the problem?

    I think the predictability goes beyond the actual sequences of calls, I think it's the plays themselves, particularly the run game. If you watch most of our run plays, the defense starts moving to where the RB is going to go very early in the play. We don't seem to do much in mis-direction or deception. Same goes for the passing game.




  6. #6
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Clayton,NC
    Posts
    7,340

    Re: Is predictibilty the problem?

    Quote Originally Posted by alienrace View Post
    I think the predictability goes beyond the actual sequences of calls, I think it's the plays themselves, particularly the run game. If you watch most of our run plays, the defense starts moving to where the RB is going to go very early in the play. We don't seem to do much in mis-direction or deception. Same goes for the passing game.
    It could be that too, maybe a combination of the two.

    If I had the time, I'd love to see if X happens here, do we do X next there....
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Parkville (like Bob)
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    1,549
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    1

    Re: Is predictibilty the problem?

    I love the running play where, I believe it's an offset I formation, and then Leach will slide over to the opposing side where he lines up at. We will then run to whatever side Leach ends up at. If you watch the opposing defense when we run this play, literally every defender knows it is going to be a run to whatever side Leach is moving towards (usually to the right, but last night it was to the left). They all subsequently crash that side and it ends up being a minimal gain or a loss. We run this play once a week it seems, and every time we do I think to myself we might as well just snap the ball and kneel on it.




  8. #8

    Re: Is predictibilty the problem?

    Besides down and distance sequences I would love to see the % of pass plays that occurr outside of the hashmark, both right and left. My eye test indicates that we just love to throw the ball to the right alot. On the road specifically we don't really challenge the middle of the field often enough? Is that because teams are wary of our deep balls down the middle of the field because if they are wouldn't we see more man coverage on the outside. Thoughts anyone?




  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Northern Ireland, UK
    Posts
    2,689

    Re: Is predictibilty the problem?

    Quote Originally Posted by pslholder96 View Post
    Besides down and distance sequences I would love to see the % of pass plays that occurr outside of the hashmark, both right and left. My eye test indicates that we just love to throw the ball to the right alot. On the road specifically we don't really challenge the middle of the field often enough? Is that because teams are wary of our deep balls down the middle of the field because if they are wouldn't we see more man coverage on the outside. Thoughts anyone?
    got you bro.

    This isn't updated for last night. But to the right hash, joe is 54 of 83. Middle field 103 of 137 and left hash is 29 of 71.

    For the record 96 of his middle of the field attempts are under 10 yards. His two best QB ratings, 140.6 and 120.8 are the middle of the field, 20 plus yards and 10 to 19 yards respectively.




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