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  1. #91
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread



    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Obama is trending up now, in Ohio and in the Rasmussen poll.
    If you take out the BS clearly bias polls that have equal or higher Dem turnout than 08, it's an almost even race well with in the margin of error.

    The Rasmussen polls has been the same for about 3 days and before the 49-47 it was 50-47 and before that was 50-46 it's a slow trend if a trend at all.

    I am not predicting Romney will win Ohio or any other state, just that the polls are very strange with their sample what they're reporting.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  2. #92
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    To illustrate my point.


    http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily...s-quo-20121031
    In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).

    Other recent polls, such as the Pew Research Center survey released on Monday showing a tied race, have found a narrower, or nonexistent, Democratic identification advantage for 2012. Romney’s prospects, obviously, will increase the more the partisan gap declines. The biggest message from the survey is that even small changes in the electorate’s composition next week could have huge ramifications in a campaign that is dividing the nation so closely.
    Doesn't mean this won't be the turnout, but it's unlikely given what we've been through the last 4 years.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  3. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Obama is trending up now, in Ohio and in the Rasmussen poll.
    Not seeing it in Rasmussen. He has been stuck at 47% for a while.

    Sent from my Xoom using Tapatalk 2




  4. #94
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Rasmussen had Mitt up by +5 before the storm, Gallup by +6.

    Ras now has Mitt up by +2 on real clear.

    Hannity just asked him for a prediction and he said he just doesn't
    know and anyone who says he does is lying. It's that close.

    Ras was the closest in each election since Gore v Bush and said
    it would be close enough for a recall.




  5. #95
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    The Chair of the RNC is on right now and said the early voting is
    favoring Romney. They are over-performing compared to 4 years
    ago while the DEMs are under-performing.

    If you go county by county the GOP is over-performing.

    The early voting was supposed to be in OBYs favor.

    He said they know results of every ballot being turned out.

    They're getting the independents.

    So don't count on the polls.
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-01-2012 at 09:19 AM.




  6. #96
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Today, Rasmussen has em tied in Wisconsin and Mitt up by +3 in
    Colorado - two winnable states with 5 days left according to real clear.

    A local Va poll, Roanoke College, has Mitt taking that state by
    +5 according to real clear, so he at least has Colorado and
    Virginia in the bag with Wisc and Ohio tied.
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-01-2012 at 09:21 AM.




  7. #97

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    I don't want to be a wet blanket, but I am starting to think Romney is going to fall a bit short (in Ohio really, and without Ohio the overall odds plummet).

    Hearing that Romney/Ryan are going to campaign in Pennsylvania this weekend (versus Ohio or any other, close swing state really) makes me think they are extremely concerned about Ohio and are wildly firing away at some potential longshot paths to victory.

    I hope I am wrong, but I don't see any possible rationale for campaigning in Pennsylvania at the expense of the other battleground states other than desperation.

    Again, I am praying I am wrong.




  8. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    I don't want to be a wet blanket, but I am starting to think Romney is going to fall a bit short (in Ohio really, and without Ohio the overall odds plummet).

    Hearing that Romney/Ryan are going to campaign in Pennsylvania this weekend (versus Ohio or any other, close swing state really) makes me think they are extremely concerned about Ohio and are wildly firing away at some potential longshot paths to victory.

    I hope I am wrong, but I don't see any possible rationale for campaigning in Pennsylvania at the expense of the other battleground states other than desperation.

    Again, I am praying I am wrong.
    I'm agree and am willing to bet his internals are telling him Ohio is going Obama, thus he needs to steal another state.

    His stance on the auto bail out really hurt his momentum here.

    He can still win if he manages to steal away PA and holds on to FL.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  9. #99

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    I'm agree and am willing to bet his internals are telling him Ohio is going Obama, thus he needs to steal another state.

    His stance on the auto bail out really hurt his momentum here.

    He can still win if he manages to steal away PA and holds on to FL.
    True, but I think Pennsylvania is a much longer shot at replacing Ohio (18) than Wisconsin (10) plus Colorado (9). I think their time could be better spent in those states, unless maybe they have written off Wisconsin as well for some reason (which I doubt).

    It just seems weird to me at this stage. I just don't think they have a chance to steal Pennsylvania with a single weekend of campaigning. They may have had some shot if they had targeted it earlier, but at this hour it seems like a futile effort, imo.

    Plus I have a feeling tomorrow's jobs report is going to be another one with a drastic and illusory drop in the unemployment rate. Hopefully it will be enough of a drop that a signficant number of people dismiss it as "rigged," lol.




  10. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    I'm agree and am willing to bet his internals are telling him Ohio is going Obama, thus he needs to steal another state.

    His stance on the auto bail out really hurt his momentum here.

    He can still win if he manages to steal away PA and holds on to FL.
    Not according to things I am reading. Romney early voting may have wiped out Obama's entire ev from 2008, and I think people are overexaggerating the auto bailout thing, especially now that Fiat is talking about Jeep in China and Italy.

    I think if Romney thought he was going to lose Ohio he would put more into Wi, Mi, and NV. And if Obama really thought he had Ohio, Jay-Z wouldn't be heading there.

    Keep faith guys.

    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2




  11. #101
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Romney is still ahead in Penn by +3 and has outspent OBY
    by $11M so he's going back in for the kill. TV just said OBY
    hasn't even been on the air in PA figuring it was automatic for him.

    Dick just said that Mitt will win Penn and election will be determined before the Ohio votes are counted. Mitt leads in Col and Va and he will get New Hampshire and Fla where a GOP ad links Castro with Chavez and OBY. Chavez of course said he'd vote for OBY because he is his friend.

    Thats not cool with Cuban Americans.

    As I posted above, Mitt is already leading in the early voting
    in Ohio but Mitt won't need it with Fla and Penn and then
    the other states he's currently leading in.

    Dick said OBY made a colossal mistake thinking he had a firewell
    in PA since it hasn't voted GOP since 1988, but Mitt jumped
    over that wall.

    The Times poll surveyed 38% DEMs and only 29% GOPs so it's
    bogus. It's not a valid sample.

    Dick can't wait to go back on O'Rawley and say I told you so.

    BTW, one station said race is close because of the billions
    spent by the Super Pacs.
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-01-2012 at 10:27 PM.




  12. #102

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Obama is spending the entire DAY in Ohio tomorrow. That is not a sign of a campaign that thinks they have wrapped up the state.




  13. #103

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by StingerNLG View Post
    Obama is spending the entire DAY in Ohio tomorrow. That is not a sign of a campaign that thinks they have wrapped up the state.
    Well, yeah, I think Ohio is definitely close. I can see both sides spending the rest of the time there. But what I can't see is deciding to go to PA vs. trying to win Ohio. I guess other than the fact they are right next to each other and there won't be much time wasted in the trip to and from. But still, the whole ball of wax is Ohio, imo.

    And Air Flacco, where are you getting that Romney is up by 3 in PA? I see no such polls and generally keep my eyes open for new state polls.




  14. #104
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Here you go man. HR posted this link back on p. 4 of this thread
    showing Mitt with a 49-45% lead. That's a 4-pt not 5 but Rasmussen
    gave him a 5 pt lead in PA before the storm.

    He gave him a 3 pt lead in Ohio after the storm.

    OBYs going to OHio because Mitt is clobbering him in the early
    voting and it is believed he is winning in the absentee ballots sent
    in by the military over seas. They hate him.

    Mitt was also in Ohio during the storm scoring more points by
    physically collecting canned goods and food items for the hurricane
    victims while OBY was in NY and NJ. That was good for his cause
    but he's losing Ohio at the moment and PA.

    Dick Morris also said last night on TV Mitt had jumped over
    OBYs firewell in PA and FLA and PA would give Mitt the election
    before the Ohio votes are even counted. That's because the
    absentee ballots won't even be counted until 10 days after the
    election according to Ohio law.



    Here's that Examiner ink HR posted before the storm.

    _______________________________
    The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.
    _________________________________



    http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-s...3#.UJOXfmjlaPp







    http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-s...3#.UJOXfmjlaPp
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-02-2012 at 06:09 AM.




  15. #105
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    BTW, I just saw on real clear where OBY is winning in Maryland by +19.

    No kidding.

    That's why I say our votes don't even count. MD
    always goes to the DEM.

    We can help Mitt win the popular vote but
    not the electoral vote which is most important.

    That Damn Jefferson. He duped Americans thinking they had a voice. They were un-educated and only the rich could read and write at the time and Jefferson didn't trust them to make such an important decision like choosing the President so he came up with the Electoral College.

    The states decide it and even there it's the biggest states. The
    DEM candidates get the biggest states with the most votes like
    Calif, NY, Ill, PA and so forth. The GOP will get the western
    and southern states with smaller populations. Just look at the last few maps.

    BTW, after the Civil War the south always voted DEM until the
    50s when IKE ran and got them but when LBJ pushed the Civl
    Rights Bill thru they said he just gave the South to the GOP and
    he did. Even McCain got most of the south but not FLA, NC or VA.
    Mitt is leading in NC and VA and FLA is a dead heat but look at
    all the southern counties McCain got while losing. Look at all those
    western counties he got. He got most of the counties in the US but
    lost to the bigger states that really mattered.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...scounties.html


    This race is close because Mitt is doing well in VA, NC, and its
    tight in FLA. Gore lost the WH when W got FLA's electoral votes.



    The only way the GOP wins the White HOuse is when conservative
    DEMs vote for them like they did with Nixon, Reagan, H and W Bush.

    GOP candidates have done well in the south because they are
    basically conservative. You have the Blue Dogs in congress from
    the south keeping the libbies in check although they voted for
    OBUMMER CARE but they were the last ones to vote for it holding
    out for a while. They kept OBY from passing it in his first year
    which he should have with just a few GOPs in congress.

    Many of us think they should amend the constitution so there is
    just one vote - the popular vote and to hell with the Elect
    College but it will never happen.

    Then all our votes will truly count. The country is literate now.
    99% of Americans over 15 can read and write. BTW, in Russia
    it's 99.5% and 100% in Norway.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._literacy_rate


    Well, that's your history lesson for today-lol.


    I GOT 56M VOTES. 50M WERE FOR SARAH PALIN. JOHN MC CAIN
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-02-2012 at 06:49 AM.




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