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  1. #16
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread



    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    That's the methodology, not the "internals".

    Internal polling is polling contracted by a particular candidate for more accurate numbers. Very expensive and very difficult for the public / press to see.
    I meant the internals of each individual poll. How the people they poll identify themselves, who they think would be better for the economy etc.

    When I read how they out poll Dems or Repubs and add up 66% think the country is on the wrong track 58% disapprove of Obama's handing of the economy, then say it's the most important thing to him right now but 50% still say they'll vote for Obama... I have a hard time buying that.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  2. #17
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Not that it's a huge surprise, but Connecticut moves from toss up to Leans Obama in the latest update.

    Intrade's odds move decisively towards Obama now 70-30.

    Romney cannot / has not picked up any momentum at all in any of the battleground states. Most of the polls in these states remain unchanged.

    Not looking good for Mitt.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  3. #18
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  4. #19
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    I think you're fooling yourself if you believe this.

    I believe this to be the far more accurate assessment of the race for Mitt ...

    http://www.mediaite.com/online/peggy...ling-calamity/
    Last edited by HoustonRaven; 09-21-2012 at 11:08 AM.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  5. #20
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    I think you're fooling yourself if you believe this.

    I believe this to be the far more accurate assessment of the race for Mitt ...

    http://www.mediaite.com/online/peggy...ling-calamity/
    What's to be fooled by?

    Almost every poll is basing the turnout of this election off of 2008 (or more in some cases), when that type of turnout has almost never (if ever) been that high. Polls are over sampling Democrats

    In Florida alone since 2008 party identification of Democrats has dropped by 300,000.

    Peggy Noonan's view of Romney's campaign is a whole other story from the polls.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  6. #21
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    The "Blame the Polls" meme was the domain of the Dems in 2010, now our side is picking it up?

    Come on.

    Things are not well in the Romney camp. He's had a ton of bad news to pounce on going back 3 months ago and he's basically a mute at this point and the result is almost no change in the polls.

    What Noonan is saying (and others) is he needs to not rely on the the MSM and take his message to the people directly. He isn't doing that. He isn't even coming close to doing that. He feels (incorrectly, IMO) that if he's on the talking head shows on the alphabet networks, he can change / shape the narrative.

    Ain't going to happen.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  7. #22
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    The "Blame the Polls" meme was the domain of the Dems in 2010, now our side is picking it up?

    Come on.

    Things are not well in the Romney camp. He's had a ton of bad news to pounce on going back 3 months ago and he's basically a mute at this point and the result is almost no change in the polls.

    What Noonan is saying (and others) is he needs to not rely on the the MSM and take his message to the people directly. He isn't doing that. He isn't even coming close to doing that. He feels (incorrectly, IMO) that if he's on the talking head shows on the alphabet networks, he can change / shape the narrative.

    Ain't going to happen.
    I guess confirmation bias is affecting us both than.

    BTW - if the polls were so accurate, why did that Romney tape come out so early? You're a smart guy, you know the closer it comes out to election day the more it stays on peoples mind. They released it now, because they needed to.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  8. #23
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    I guess confirmation bias is affecting us both than.

    BTW - if the polls were so accurate, why did that Romney tape come out so early? You're a smart guy, you know the closer it comes out to election day the more it stays on peoples mind. They released it now, because they needed to.
    "They" was a news outlet and wanted eyes on their product.

    If this was leaked by the Obama camp, I'd agree with you. Except this was a left leaning news outfit and did what any other news outlet in the country would have done -- released it right away.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  9. #24
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    "They" was a news outlet and wanted eyes on their product.

    If this was leaked by the Obama camp, I'd agree with you. Except this was a left leaning news outfit and did what any other news outlet in the country would have done -- released it right away.
    "They" as in the people who want Obama relected, and they as in the people who "tried to figure how best to use this tape".

    You're going to believe what you want and so am I. But I was just looking at the Fox news poll in VA (BHO +5) guess what... they oversampled Dems by...? 5, yet the electorate has (R) +3.

    The polls are just simply over sampling democrats, plain and simple. And don't forget about voter enthusiasm
    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...over-democrats
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  10. #25
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    "They" as in the people who want Obama relected, and they as in the people who "tried to figure how best to use this tape".

    You're going to believe what you want and so am I. But I was just looking at the Fox news poll in VA (BHO +5) guess what... they oversampled Dems by...? 5, yet the electorate has (R) +3.

    The polls are just simply over sampling democrats, plain and simple. And don't forget about voter enthusiasm
    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...over-democrats
    You counter the people who want to get Obama reelected with a site that does not want Obama to get reelected? You don't see the irony there?

    Right now, I give as much credence to the Breitbart as I do Mother Jones. Both are agenda driven, neither are going to go out of their way for facts.

    Yes, we disagree. But I am using past history and Political Science as my guide. Mitt is in trouble. Plain and simple. His message is not getting out and when it does, it's stale and boring. This should be a landslide right now. Instead, we have to hope for a miracle in the debates or an October surprise from Mitt if he has a chance of winning.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  11. #26
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    I'd also add the timing was pretty damn perfect.

    Instead of talking about our embassies falling like dominoes or the (yet again) horrible economic news, the media is consumed by a scandalous leaked video.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  12. #27
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    You counter the people who want to get Obama reelected with a site that does not want Obama to get reelected? You don't see the irony there?
    No, I don't see it. The point I wanted you to see was their summary of the numbers of advantage in voter enthusiasm.

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Yes, we disagree. But I am using past history and Political Science as my guide. Mitt is in trouble. Plain and simple. His message is not getting out and when it does, it's stale and boring. This should be a landslide right now. Instead, we have to hope for a miracle in the debates or an October surprise from Mitt if he has a chance of winning.
    What are you basing that on?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  13. #28
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    No, I don't see it. The point I wanted you to see was their summary of the numbers of advantage in voter enthusiasm.
    You claim Mother Jones' motivation for leaking the video was a politically calculated move by folks "who just want Obama elected". To wit, you defend your position about the polling with a site that ... well ... doesn't want to get Obama elected.

    Neither can be called credibly unbiased right now.

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    What are you basing that on?
    Turn any news outlet, even FNC, and you'll see anything but his positions. You and I know what they are because we seek them out but the overwhelming majority of voters out there do not. He's relying on the networks to get the message out for him and they simply won't / can't do it. FNC included.

    There are also well connected pundits who are also fed up with his campaign style. Noonan is the tip of the iceberg.

    A while back I said, and you agreed, Mitt needs to ignore the MSM and go directly to the people via town hall style meetings / TV events. Instead, he's bending over backwards trying to get a message out in a MSM that has no interest or desire to do so.

    With the bad news that's out there, this should not be as close as it is anymore. The last few weeks have been disastrous for Obama and Mitt has once again proved he cannot pounce.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  14. #29
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    You claim Mother Jones' motivation for leaking the video was a politically calculated move by folks "who just want Obama elected". To wit, you defend your position about the polling with a site that ... well ... doesn't want to get Obama elected.

    Neither can be called credibly unbiased right now.
    Sorry, I get your point and if I was posting an opinion piece, or posting something for the purpose of an opinion, I'd agree with you about the irony.

    How ever I posted to show the advantages in the voter enthusiasm in the CBS poll instead of going to the poll and getting them myself.


    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Turn any news outlet, even FNC, and you'll see anything but his positions. You and I know what they are because we seek them out but the overwhelming majority of voters out there do not. He's relying on the networks to get the message out for him and they simply won't / can't do it. FNC included.

    There are also well connected pundits who are also fed up with his campaign style. Noonan is the tip of the iceberg.

    A while back I said, and you agreed, Mitt needs to ignore the MSM and go directly to the people via town hall style meetings / TV events. Instead, he's bending over backwards trying to get a message out in a MSM that has no interest or desire to do so.

    With the bad news that's out there, this should not be as close as it is anymore. The last few weeks have been disastrous for Obama and Mitt has once again proved he cannot pounce.
    Well, the news is the news, I have my opinion/theories about why even FNC is doing this.

    But these pundits can bitch and moan about the campaign, at the end of the day they just don't want bad shit written about them by the media so when something is perceived as bad by said media, they'll criticize it.

    I agree their not going to the people so much as they should, and they have had a rough few weeks... according to... the media, but I gotta wonder if they don't believe their ahead or at least tied by not changing what they're doing.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  15. #30
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