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  1. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    huh?
    You asked if I read the internal polls. I don't have access to that stuff but if you do, please share.

    I just follow the averages like the one from RCP.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  2. #14
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    You asked if I read the internal polls. I don't have access to that stuff but if you do, please share.

    I just follow the averages like the one from RCP.
    I thought you were responding to the comment about Missouri moving back... I was totally lost.

    When you got to RCP and click on a state and list the polls and the result, if you click on who did the poll it will show you the internals. Here is the latest PPP Missouri,

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/p..._MO_830925.pdf
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  3. #15
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    That's the methodology, not the "internals".

    Internal polling is polling contracted by a particular candidate for more accurate numbers. Very expensive and very difficult for the public / press to see.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  4. #16
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    That's the methodology, not the "internals".

    Internal polling is polling contracted by a particular candidate for more accurate numbers. Very expensive and very difficult for the public / press to see.
    I meant the internals of each individual poll. How the people they poll identify themselves, who they think would be better for the economy etc.

    When I read how they out poll Dems or Repubs and add up 66% think the country is on the wrong track 58% disapprove of Obama's handing of the economy, then say it's the most important thing to him right now but 50% still say they'll vote for Obama... I have a hard time buying that.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  5. #17
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Not that it's a huge surprise, but Connecticut moves from toss up to Leans Obama in the latest update.

    Intrade's odds move decisively towards Obama now 70-30.

    Romney cannot / has not picked up any momentum at all in any of the battleground states. Most of the polls in these states remain unchanged.

    Not looking good for Mitt.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  6. #18
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  7. #19
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    I think you're fooling yourself if you believe this.

    I believe this to be the far more accurate assessment of the race for Mitt ...

    http://www.mediaite.com/online/peggy...ling-calamity/
    Last edited by HoustonRaven; 09-21-2012 at 10:08 AM.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  8. #20
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    I think you're fooling yourself if you believe this.

    I believe this to be the far more accurate assessment of the race for Mitt ...

    http://www.mediaite.com/online/peggy...ling-calamity/
    What's to be fooled by?

    Almost every poll is basing the turnout of this election off of 2008 (or more in some cases), when that type of turnout has almost never (if ever) been that high. Polls are over sampling Democrats

    In Florida alone since 2008 party identification of Democrats has dropped by 300,000.

    Peggy Noonan's view of Romney's campaign is a whole other story from the polls.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  9. #21
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    The "Blame the Polls" meme was the domain of the Dems in 2010, now our side is picking it up?

    Come on.

    Things are not well in the Romney camp. He's had a ton of bad news to pounce on going back 3 months ago and he's basically a mute at this point and the result is almost no change in the polls.

    What Noonan is saying (and others) is he needs to not rely on the the MSM and take his message to the people directly. He isn't doing that. He isn't even coming close to doing that. He feels (incorrectly, IMO) that if he's on the talking head shows on the alphabet networks, he can change / shape the narrative.

    Ain't going to happen.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  10. #22
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    The "Blame the Polls" meme was the domain of the Dems in 2010, now our side is picking it up?

    Come on.

    Things are not well in the Romney camp. He's had a ton of bad news to pounce on going back 3 months ago and he's basically a mute at this point and the result is almost no change in the polls.

    What Noonan is saying (and others) is he needs to not rely on the the MSM and take his message to the people directly. He isn't doing that. He isn't even coming close to doing that. He feels (incorrectly, IMO) that if he's on the talking head shows on the alphabet networks, he can change / shape the narrative.

    Ain't going to happen.
    I guess confirmation bias is affecting us both than.

    BTW - if the polls were so accurate, why did that Romney tape come out so early? You're a smart guy, you know the closer it comes out to election day the more it stays on peoples mind. They released it now, because they needed to.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  11. #23
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    I guess confirmation bias is affecting us both than.

    BTW - if the polls were so accurate, why did that Romney tape come out so early? You're a smart guy, you know the closer it comes out to election day the more it stays on peoples mind. They released it now, because they needed to.
    "They" was a news outlet and wanted eyes on their product.

    If this was leaked by the Obama camp, I'd agree with you. Except this was a left leaning news outfit and did what any other news outlet in the country would have done -- released it right away.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  12. #24
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    "They" was a news outlet and wanted eyes on their product.

    If this was leaked by the Obama camp, I'd agree with you. Except this was a left leaning news outfit and did what any other news outlet in the country would have done -- released it right away.
    "They" as in the people who want Obama relected, and they as in the people who "tried to figure how best to use this tape".

    You're going to believe what you want and so am I. But I was just looking at the Fox news poll in VA (BHO +5) guess what... they oversampled Dems by...? 5, yet the electorate has (R) +3.

    The polls are just simply over sampling democrats, plain and simple. And don't forget about voter enthusiasm
    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...over-democrats
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




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