Results 169 to 180 of 235
Thread: RCP Electoral Map Thread
-
11-05-2012, 10:45 AM #169Veteran Poster
- Join Date
- Oct 2011
- Posts
- 4,553
Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
Silver slightly varying the polls weights doesn't address the issue of (or odds of) systematic failure or bias. Which is exactly the point.
As for Intrade, no thanks. It is liking betting on a 2 to 1 moneyline favorite in the NFL, which can be done any week. And as I said, I don't think "mitt" is going to "eek" it out, I actually think he loses Ohio and hence the election, but we aren't really talking about what will happen, we are talking about people pretending that pseudoscience is science. When you appeal to the results of the pseudoscience as evidence of its scientific nature you are begging the question.
-
11-05-2012, 11:09 AM #170
Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
Nate Silver BTW is a former Daily Kos blogger. The word on the street is that the reason he nailed 2008 is that because of this stature with the Democrat party he had access to the Obama campaign's internal polling. It did not, by the way, take a genius to figure out that Obama was going to beat John McCain.
Tomorrow is going to be all about turnout. My sources on Twitter are still saying that early voting on the Democrat side is still well short of 2008, and in Ohio Republicans may have completely wiped out not only the early voting advantage, but the actual total number of votes the President won the state by. That's not polling, that's raw numbers from the state.
-
11-05-2012, 12:21 PM #171Legendary RSR Poster
- Join Date
- Aug 2007
- Location
- Houston, TX Y'all
- Posts
- 34,414
Again, that's all anecodtle.
Ok, early voting turnout is not what it was for the Dems in 2008. They are still beating the GOP in turnout, even with their numbers down, in many key states.
This was and still is my main criticism with the Romney campaign. He had three chances to hit Obama hard and early and whiffed on all three. Now he's reaping what he has sowed -- a close race when it had the very real potential to be a blow out.
He still may win. No doubt about that. But it did not need to be this close.
-
-
11-05-2012, 12:27 PM #173Legendary RSR Poster
- Join Date
- Aug 2008
- Location
- Pasadena
- Posts
- 14,123
- Blog Entries
- 4
Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
Rasmussen just released a new poll
Romney 49
Obama 48
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll
-
11-05-2012, 12:30 PM #174Legendary RSR Poster
- Join Date
- Aug 2007
- Location
- Houston, TX Y'all
- Posts
- 34,414
-
Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
Mitt did some bad campaigning early on and was seen as un-likeable
until the first debate but it was OBY who blew the big leads including
a 14-pt lead in OHio which is now even.
He also blew big leads in Mich, Wisc, Iowa, Nevada, Col, and of
course PA where Mitt just had a 4-pt lead but is now supposed to be even.
Mitt never had those leads to blow. Its true that the election shouldn't
be this close with this economy but OBYs like ability has saved him.
-
-
11-05-2012, 12:36 PM #177
-
11-05-2012, 12:38 PM #178
Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
And this is the problem. While Romney should have gone after Obama more on Benghazi and did during the debate, the media has completely covered his ass on it. The media has done everything they could to tear Romney down and not report on a single gaffe Obama or Biden have made.
-
11-05-2012, 12:40 PM #179Legendary RSR Poster
- Join Date
- Aug 2007
- Location
- Houston, TX Y'all
- Posts
- 34,414
-
Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
Even today in Ohio and the freezing cold, thousands are waiting in long lines to
hear Mitt. One observer said he never saw anything like it.
Bookmarks