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Thread: RCP Electoral Map Thread
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Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
Did Tapper come out with something new?
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Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
Don't forget PENN. Haloti asked about Penn yesterday. Well here is Dick Morris again
explaining why Mitt will still win on Tues and this is a lunch time update today.
OBY was so focused on the swing states he forgot the semi-swing states and completely
ignored PA thinking he had a firewall there since it hasn't voted GOP since 1988. I mentioned
this last night.
As Ive been saying Mitt is leading in the early voting and out-performing OBY from 08.
I'm still going for the land slide on Tues.
http://www.dickmorris.com/
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11-02-2012, 04:00 PM #111Veteran Poster
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Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
This is for Air Flacco to keep him positive :D :
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ama-defectors/
It is hard to imagine how Obama can possibly win with these statistics. Essentially they say that around 9 million people who voted for Obama in 2008 (of Obama's 69 million) are planning on voting for Romney on Tuesday. This figure ignores the 3% that claim to be undecided (some presumably would vote Romney and some stick with Obama).
That would put Obama down to around 60 million votes and, if added to McCain's 2008 total of 59 million, would put Mitt at like 68 million votes.
Obviously there is some percentage, even if small, of people who would say they are going to vote for Obama now but voted for McCain in 2008. And there are the 18-21 year old voters who couldn't vote in 2008, who will break for Obama by a decent, though not nearly unanimous, percentage. And there are people who died since last election (presumably slightly more who voted for McCain), etc. And the overall turnout may end up being larger than 2008. In other words, the electorate is not exactly the same. But still, this is a massive chunk of defectors.
Then again, the polls *should be* including this data, so maybe Obama has made up the difference and the polls are accurate.
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11-02-2012, 05:03 PM #112Legendary RSR Poster
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I think it will be a landslide Romney win also.
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11-02-2012, 05:11 PM #113
Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
"A moron, a rapist, and a Pittsburgh Steeler walk into a bar. He sits down and says, “Hi I’m Ben may I have a drink please?”
ProFootballMock
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11-02-2012, 06:38 PM #114Legendary RSR Poster
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Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
OK DARB,
I get the sarcasm on point #1. :)
On point #2 - IKE got some of the south in 52 when it started to swing GOP.
See electoral map. He got FLA's big votes and Texas, VA and
MD.
I knew I should have said some of the big southern states.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...election,_1952
And Truman carried the south in 1948 except for a few states
Strom the racist Thurmond got. Isn't that Sweet Home Alabama
in the map that he got just like there was no Civil War in
America -lol.
Speaking of IKE, conservatives wanted MacArthur for Prez. Both parties courted him. GOPs entered his name in Wisconsin primary
along with Dewey but in a surprise move, the liberal Stassen beat
MacArthur out. But he was in Japan as Supreme Commander of
Allied Forces but said he wouldn't decline a GOP offer.
Both parties courted IKE, but GOP liberals got him because his brother Milton was a GOP. When asked if he as a DEM or GOP
he said I'm an American. Well said. That's why I'm an independent.
Talk about spending, IKE spent a ton of money but improved those
roads OBY loves to talk about. We got the Baltimore Beltway built
because of that money and Rt 95 going from Maine to FLA.
Guv McKeldon also got IKE's money for the capital beltway.
I remember when the beltway was first completed as a kid and
dad drove us all around it. Before that we had to go thru the
city from Belvedere thru MOnroe street to get to Wilkens Ave
and Halethrope where my grand parents lived. It was a long trip.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...election,_1948
Nixon also carried FLA and a few other southern states in the 1960 election. Point is, the south started voting GOP around the time
of IKE after voting DEM for so long but southern revisionists will
deny that like saying there was no Civil War.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...election,_1960Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-02-2012 at 07:48 PM.
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11-02-2012, 09:31 PM #116
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11-02-2012, 09:36 PM #117
what polls are you talking about? The ones with D+8 + D+12 samples? Rasmussen has Romney up 2 in Ohio and 2 in Colorado. both Gallup and Rasmussen say that the turnout is more likely going to be R+1 to D+2.
and there a polls showing Romney winning the early voting.
I think things look better for Romney then you're getting credit for.
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11-02-2012, 09:59 PM #118Legendary RSR Poster
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Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
That goes back to which polls you believe and which polls give
a bad sample like the Times poll that surveyed 38% DEM and only
29% GOPs and the DEMs were even registered or likely voters.
We've been saying all along that Rasmussen and Gallup are the
most reliable poll.
As Karl Rove said, Gallup had Mitt up by +6 and no candidate had
ever lost when they had him that high that late in the campaign.
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Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread
Few things. Sting is right, the polls are still using a model for turnout in some cases that projects a higher Dem turnout than 08.
Also, I went back and looked at the RCP polls for 08, lets just say, most were not correct.
All that said, I'm with you as far as the polls, they're not painting a pretty picture.
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