Quote Originally Posted by kojo View Post
Right and Nate doesn't weigh all Polls the same, so how he decides which individual poll is debatable. He has an article called "house effects" where he explains and ranks which polls are more biased and then says that he reduces/increases their effect in his calculations so yes, PPP won't have the same influence as say Susquehanna since it is blatantly left leaning. If you guys think mitt is going to eek this one out you may want to put some money up on intrade, the returns on there look crazy. Last I checked Obama was a 64% favorite. Other gambling sites, especially the euro ones have him in the high 70s...

Silver slightly varying the polls weights doesn't address the issue of (or odds of) systematic failure or bias. Which is exactly the point.

As for Intrade, no thanks. It is liking betting on a 2 to 1 moneyline favorite in the NFL, which can be done any week. And as I said, I don't think "mitt" is going to "eek" it out, I actually think he loses Ohio and hence the election, but we aren't really talking about what will happen, we are talking about people pretending that pseudoscience is science. When you appeal to the results of the pseudoscience as evidence of its scientific nature you are begging the question.