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  1. #166

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread



    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    Yeah, I don't think we were ever on completely different pages, but again, that bold part doesn't tell us anything meaningful. He says he "accounts for" the possibility that the polls are off by looking at how much they have been off in the past. But the distant past is only marginally meaningful at best, imo, and meaningless at worst, imo. The recent past is another matter but then we have the problem of insignificant sample sizes, probably 2000, 2004, 2008 only, and 2000 had the late-DUI effect which Silver just ignores. And 2008 had the unprecedented "perfect" storm for Democrats. Like I said, I don't think the way Silver says he "accounts for" the possibility of the polls being off means much in terms of their actual chances of being off.

    I would much prefer some kind of rationale that specifically addresses (in terms of reasoning, i.e. why and how) the discrepancy between the tight national polls, the almost even party-ID when polled specifically, and the less-tight battleground states, and uneven party-IDs being found in these states.

    For example the most recent PPP polls for Ohio and Virginia that came out today. Shows sample of D+8 in Ohio; when 2004 was R+5 and 2008 was D+8. And it gives Obama a 5 point lead. Then there is the Virginia poll which shows sample of D+5; when 2004 was R+4 and 2008 was D+6. And gives Obama a 4 point lead. If you split the difference between the two turnouts, Romney is ahead in both polls. If it is 2004 turnout (which due to demographics is fairly unlikely, imo) then Romney wins by several points.

    To me, those polls and their results seem extremely unlikely, yet there they are, and there they get put into Silver and Wang's models along with many like them. Could they be dead on? Sure. Do they seem strange to me in terms of a common sense comparison of the situations at election time of 2004, 2008 and now? Yes, to me, they do, even if they are eventually proven to have been accurate.
    Right and Nate doesn't weigh all Polls the same, so how he decides which individual poll is debatable. He has an article called "house effects" where he explains and ranks which polls are more biased and then says that he reduces/increases their effect in his calculations so yes, PPP won't have the same influence as say Susquehanna since it is blatantly left leaning. If you guys think mitt is going to eek this one out you may want to put some money up on intrade, the returns on there look crazy. Last I checked Obama was a 64% favorite. Other gambling sites, especially the euro ones have him in the high 70s...




  2. #167
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Looks like Billy got the evangelicals moving at least in OHio where he took out a
    1-page ad.

    Coal miners keep turning out in the early voting along with the evangelicals.
    There have been long lines of voters in the early voting.

    A GOP minority congressman in FLA and former US Army Colonel said Libya is coming into play this late in the game and a lot of people in FLA feel OBY isn't protecting our people overseas. He said some counties still have a hi unemployment rate above 9%.

    He sees a Mitt win there.




  3. #168
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    While OBY is desperate asking his people to vote for revenge, Rasmussen now has
    Mitt up by +1.

    OBY is one desperate man.

    http://www.drudgereport.com/


    Mitt has double digit leads in independents from 22-60% even in Ohio just as Dick
    said he would get all summer

    So you can't depend on a lot of these polls.
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-05-2012 at 10:47 AM.




  4. #169

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kojo View Post
    Right and Nate doesn't weigh all Polls the same, so how he decides which individual poll is debatable. He has an article called "house effects" where he explains and ranks which polls are more biased and then says that he reduces/increases their effect in his calculations so yes, PPP won't have the same influence as say Susquehanna since it is blatantly left leaning. If you guys think mitt is going to eek this one out you may want to put some money up on intrade, the returns on there look crazy. Last I checked Obama was a 64% favorite. Other gambling sites, especially the euro ones have him in the high 70s...

    Silver slightly varying the polls weights doesn't address the issue of (or odds of) systematic failure or bias. Which is exactly the point.

    As for Intrade, no thanks. It is liking betting on a 2 to 1 moneyline favorite in the NFL, which can be done any week. And as I said, I don't think "mitt" is going to "eek" it out, I actually think he loses Ohio and hence the election, but we aren't really talking about what will happen, we are talking about people pretending that pseudoscience is science. When you appeal to the results of the pseudoscience as evidence of its scientific nature you are begging the question.




  5. #170

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Nate Silver BTW is a former Daily Kos blogger. The word on the street is that the reason he nailed 2008 is that because of this stature with the Democrat party he had access to the Obama campaign's internal polling. It did not, by the way, take a genius to figure out that Obama was going to beat John McCain.

    Tomorrow is going to be all about turnout. My sources on Twitter are still saying that early voting on the Democrat side is still well short of 2008, and in Ohio Republicans may have completely wiped out not only the early voting advantage, but the actual total number of votes the President won the state by. That's not polling, that's raw numbers from the state.




  6. #171
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    Again, that's all anecodtle.

    Ok, early voting turnout is not what it was for the Dems in 2008. They are still beating the GOP in turnout, even with their numbers down, in many key states.

    This was and still is my main criticism with the Romney campaign. He had three chances to hit Obama hard and early and whiffed on all three. Now he's reaping what he has sowed -- a close race when it had the very real potential to be a blow out.

    He still may win. No doubt about that. But it did not need to be this close.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  7. #172
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Again, that's all anecodtle.

    Ok, early voting turnout is not what it was for the Dems in 2008. They are still beating the GOP in turnout, even with their numbers down, in many key states.

    This was and still is my main criticism with the Romney campaign. He had three chances to hit Obama hard and early and whiffed on all three. Now he's reaping what he has sowed -- a close race when it had the very real potential to be a blow out.

    He still may win. No doubt about that. But it did not need to be this close.
    If the GOP has increased it's early voting numbers from 08, did they really whiff? Or did they just bunt?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  8. #173
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Rasmussen just released a new poll
    Romney 49
    Obama 48

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll




  9. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post

    If the GOP has increased it's early voting numbers from 08, did they really whiff? Or did they just bunt?
    The GOP bunted. Yes, that's more accurate.

    But in terms of Mitt seizing on the Obama gaffes, no, I stand by whiff.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  10. #175
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Mitt did some bad campaigning early on and was seen as un-likeable
    until the first debate but it was OBY who blew the big leads including
    a 14-pt lead in OHio which is now even.

    He also blew big leads in Mich, Wisc, Iowa, Nevada, Col, and of
    course PA where Mitt just had a 4-pt lead but is now supposed to be even.

    Mitt never had those leads to blow. Its true that the election shouldn't
    be this close with this economy but OBYs like ability has saved him.




  11. #176
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    The GOP bunted. Yes, that's more accurate.

    But in terms of Mitt seizing on the Obama gaffes, no, I stand by whiff.
    I'm gonna go with bunt on that too. Hard to take advantage of the missteps gaffes and failed policies etc. when no media will cover that. Ya know?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  12. #177

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Again, that's all anecodtle.

    Ok, early voting turnout is not what it was for the Dems in 2008. They are still beating the GOP in turnout, even with their numbers down, in many key states.

    This was and still is my main criticism with the Romney campaign. He had three chances to hit Obama hard and early and whiffed on all three. Now he's reaping what he has sowed -- a close race when it had the very real potential to be a blow out.

    He still may win. No doubt about that. But it did not need to be this close.
    Just FYI the Ohio numbers are not anecdotal. They come from the SoS's official numbers. They don't show who voted for who, but it does show party breakdown.

    Also, a memo from the GOP today, for whatever it's worth.




  13. #178

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    I'm gonna go with bunt on that too. Hard to take advantage of the missteps gaffes and failed policies etc. when no media will cover that. Ya know?
    And this is the problem. While Romney should have gone after Obama more on Benghazi and did during the debate, the media has completely covered his ass on it. The media has done everything they could to tear Romney down and not report on a single gaffe Obama or Biden have made.




  14. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post

    I'm gonna go with bunt on that too. Hard to take advantage of the missteps gaffes and failed policies etc. when no media will cover that. Ya know?
    Agreed. But he could have a done the Reagan-esqe media blitz, bypassing the MSM. Mitt and his surrogates seem to be taking the McCain approach. You and I both agreed a while back he needed to not be so reliant on the MSM.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  15. #180
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Even today in Ohio and the freezing cold, thousands are waiting in long lines to
    hear Mitt. One observer said he never saw anything like it.




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