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  1. #136
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread



    I saw and NBC poll for Ohio that predicts Obama will win Ohio by the same margin he want it in 08. Are they really saying he's lost no support since 08?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  2. #137
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Another thing about Ohio I forgot about. I know this was the midterms, but all 88 counties of Ohio voted to opt out of Obamacare.

    That's a positive sign. We'll know soon enough if it's positive enough.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  3. #138
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    For the pessimists, I posted above that 30,000 waited in long lines in the freezing cold
    to see Mitt in OHio, only 2800 showed up to see OBY. This morning on his last stop
    in the same city, only 4000 showed up and that's in a DEM strong hold.

    That's compared to 80,000 that showed up in Ohio to see him in 08.

    These crowds coincide with the early voting figures for Mitt in OHio. He is over-performing
    by 75,000 more votes from 08 to over 181,000 less votes for the under-performing Obama
    since 08. Mitt is over-performing in all the counties in early voting in Ohio.


    This was posted on FREEPERS today.


    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954374/posts




  4. #139
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    FROM ANOTHER BOARD:


    And Romney got the endorsement of Lee Iacocca - that's significant in MI, as state that just came into play since the drubbing Obama took in the first debate. In OH, the endorsement is even more significant. His name and endorsement still carries weight with the lifers in the auto industry.

    FROM ME:

    Looks like Ohio is listening to Lee not OBY. So much for the bailout issue.




  5. #140

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Again my concern is the discrepancy between all the anecdotal evidence you are providing, Iacocca, rally-sizes, yard signs, a poll here or there, and the stubborn lead Obama has in the vast majority of the Ohio polls.

    Obviously the polls can be flawed, but for so many to be flawed, the mistake they are making has to be systematic. Along with the anecdotal positives, I would feel better with a strong argument why all these polls are consistently bucking the anecdotal evidence. And the argument needs to explain why this election shows the systematic polling error while other recent elections really didn't. I threw out the idea of early voting affecting likely voter samples, but I am still not sure that does the trick in reconciling the way the polls look vs. the way everything else looks.

    Stay positive though, your points and optimism is helping me keep hope alive. Without it, I may have already written this thing off, as pessimistic as I normally am, lol.




  6. #141
    it's very easy answer. most of the pulling it done by democratic leaning firms. the idea is to create a narrative. that's narrative is built to keep Republicans from voting on Tuesday because they think the election is lost cause.

    Here, read this. It will bring you off the ledge. . http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives...-poll-in-ohio/

    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2




  7. #142

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Ok. I am back inside, but I am leaving the window open.

    I realized the Marist poll was BS. I was more talking about the ones showing 2 point leads, etc in Ohio; I think the 1-2 point lead may be real. I don't think all these pollsters are rigging their results purposely, though Marist makes it obvious that they are one of the pollsters that does.

    The problem with trying to gauge "intensity" is that these month-long early voting windows negate the "intensity" factor because Democrats (Republicans have gotten into the game this election, but I am sure not to the same extent) flat-out corral people who wouldn't in a million years motivate themselves to vote, early or otherwise, onto buses, etc, and hold their hand all the way through the process. The longer the early voting window the more busloads they can round up. So I agree Republicans are more pissed off, and if people had to put in effort to vote that rage/intensity would help a lot, but people don't have to put in much effort these days.

    And to some extent, I think Obama's 2008 performance wasn't a maximum effort like this one is going to be in terms of rounding up stray votes. He had it in the bag vs. McCain relative to this election. One can easily argue they took their foot off the early vote gas in 2008 once they realized victory was clear.

    Thanks though. I am inside again, though I can't promise that the ledge and I won't meet again before Tuesday, lol.
    Last edited by Haloti92; 11-03-2012 at 09:36 PM.




  8. #143
    I understand. So let me balance it with this. Can you say Minnesota?

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-...up-148296.html

    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2




  9. #144
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    The odds of Pennsylvania going for Mitt are not very good, imo. Anything is possible, but I think the effort put towards that state was too little too late. It has been relaibly Democrat for 20+ years, and while this year it will be closer than usual, I don't see how Romney can get over the hump based on the polling, unless Obama's ground game is asleep at the switch in Philly (which I suppose is possible).
    Western PA = coal country which Obama has said this about:



    He doesn't like coal or fracking, both of which are big in western PA.




  10. #145
    what I said about Pennsylvania a couple of posts ago? now I'm starting to believe.

    http://triblive.com/mobile/m/2878015...dential-voters

    and Bill Clinton is going to be there on Monday for FOUR stops. you don't send arguably your biggest surrogate to a state you think you got locked up for four rallies the day before the election.
    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2




  11. #146

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    I have some new Ohio information to from a source watching the hard count of early voting:

    "OHIO: GOP has increased their early turnout by more than 100k from 2008. Dems down 150k. That is 250k net (Obama won in 2008 by 260k)."

    That's not a poll, that is the count from the state on party turnout. How many of those Democrats also voted Romney, and how many Republicans voted Obama aren't going to be here.

    Remember something else, most all polling in '04 had John Kerry winning the state. And even on election day the exit polls were saying Kerry was going to win it. Bush won by 3%. This is why I have no confidence in the poll numbers right now.




  12. #147

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread





  13. #148
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    Thought you had "no confidence" in poll numbers, Sting?
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  14. #149
    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Thought you had "no confidence" in poll numbers, Sting?
    I don't. I'm trying to make the point that these polls mean nothing right now.

    However, sending Bill Clinton to Pennsylvania all day? That means more than any poll out there. THAT tells me someone in the Obama camp sees Romney in a position they don't want him to be in.

    Sent from my Xoom using Tapatalk 2




  15. #150

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    I am starting to feel a little better, though I am still not confident. The Michigan poll was a bit of a surprise. A nice surprise. Like Pennsylvania, it may not come through, but I think it indicates late momentum.

    But about the 2004 Ohio polls, they actually did show Bush winning for the last week, by the margin he actually won (2.1%). That said, the only pollsters who polled that last week were some of the pros, not the news networks (who always seem a bit pro-Democrat). Note the CNN final poll. We are getting more CNN-like polls now, I am sure.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Pre.../oh_polls.html




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