Mitt has dropped the ball twice and it's now cost him.

RCP has him behind or statistically even in all but one battleground state -- Missouri -- and he's fallen behind a full point in the RCP approval average. In Ohio, Obama opens up a 4 point lead. You may as well give WI, MI, and PA to Obama now, all of which are 5-7 points in favor of Obama. This is happening in the midst of tepid, at best, economic news.

As I have postulated before, the way Mitt wins this is by getting out in front and staying there. You're not going to win playing catch-up to an incumbent.

A month ago I would have said he has a 50-50 shot. Now I think it's fallen to 35-65.