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  1. #76
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    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown



    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    Last I checked he was a RFA, not an UFA like he will be next year. Despite the rules, those guys don't go anywhere the total cost is too prohibitive.

    No one is giving up a 1st AND a contract, but they will certainly just give up a contract. BIG difference.

    Wallace is a 5/50 guy if not more all day long.
    Right, so he'll be with Pitt this year. He has no option. Not sure if I'm missing your point
    World Domination 3 Points at a Time!




  2. #77

    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by psuasskicker View Post
    Well then you'll need to consider Miami as part of that pass heavy offense as well as their pass:run ratio was over one, which still invalidates the point you were trying to make. If that's your definition, then literally every offense last year was a pass-heavy offense except for the Texans and the Broncos, as those were the only two that had designed runs more than designed passes.

    So pretty much, regardless what your intention was of stating it, your point isn't valid. Yes, the Steelers did pass a higher percent of the time than the Dolphins did. But it wasn't by much. And it's not really accurate in any way to say that the Steelers are a pass-happy team, which you at the very least implied.
    now youre arguing that 1.51 isnt more than 1.2 by enough to be considered more? seriously? seems like if somebody doesnt see exactly what you do youll deny it completely. 60-40 to most people is a pass first offense. 1.51:1 vs 1.2:1 are small numbers with big implications. not to mention miami sucking and playing down most weeks vs the steelers being 13-3 and playing ahead with a good defense. considering that aspect and that teams, including the steelers, typically run the ball in that scenario its more telling of their philosophy to continue to throw the ball and vice versa with miami.

    First, I didn't say he should have been more productive. I simply argued he wouldn't have been as productive as Wallace if Wallace had the same QB.
    even if you feel Wallace is better statistically its only minutely. their stats are comparable as is so youre saying that roethlisberger and matt Moore arent that different? none of this addresses why the steelers themselves switched to Brown being more of the focal point after week 7. if hes a top 5 WR or right outside the top 3 as you suggest hed be beating DBs to a point that he would be getting more opportunities/targets by force.
    -JAB




  3. #78

    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle View Post
    Right, so he'll be with Pitt this year. He has no option. Not sure if I'm missing your point
    We are talking about 2013, not 2012.




  4. #79

    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    The only way he is not with Pitt this year is if they can find someone to trade for him. But that team will also have to sign him so Pitt won't get much. I am calling a 3rd at the most. You may get a desperate team to give a 2nd.

    If he is on Pitt he sits out till week 12 then plays the last 6 games And becomes a Ufa.


    I do agree now that 1st round picks are traded for players entering their final year or in their final year because no team will trade a productive player in the middle of their fair contract unless they get offered 2 1sts or something. Then it is almost to hard to pass up




  5. #80
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    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by psuasskicker View Post
    Well then you'll need to consider Miami as part of that pass heavy offense as well as their pass:run ratio was over one, which still invalidates the point you were trying to make. If that's your definition, then literally every offense last year was a pass-heavy offense except for the Texans and the Broncos, as those were the only two that had designed runs more than designed passes.

    So pretty much, regardless what your intention was of stating it, your point isn't valid. Yes, the Steelers did pass a higher percent of the time than the Dolphins did. But it wasn't by much. And it's not really accurate in any way to say that the Steelers are a pass-happy team, which you at the very least implied.



    That's not an argument for WHY he's better. That's an argument THAT he's better. I don't care that you think he is better, I already know you do. Why is being bigger and stronger better than faster and more technically precise? Why is being a better red zone presence (which I can give you plenty of statistical indicators which shows that's actually not true, but realistically all you need to do is look at #TDs vs # passes thrown to each in the red zone to see how wildly inaccurate a statement that is) better than being excellent all over the field? Why do Marshall's characteristics allow him to add more to an offense than Wallace's? You haven't made an argument for why he's better.



    First, I didn't say he should have been more productive. I simply argued he wouldn't have been as productive as Wallace if Wallace had the same QB.

    Second, you certainly can measure it. You baseline all NFL players to come up with average performance at a position, then you measure the player's performance against that average, and come up with how well that player would have performed with better or worse. This is what DVOA does...read up on it if you want to know more about it, I'm not re-explaining it here...I already linked it for you.

    - C -
    You can't throw a performance against Boller and a performance against Aaron Rodgers, into a vacuum, come up with an average, and then base performances off of that average to determine who is better than who. There are too many intangible variables to consider.
    Last edited by The Excellector; 07-30-2012 at 04:43 PM.
    "When questioned, the Elders explained that they were in search of magical powers. However, they're actually searching for the whereabouts of a certain ring. This ring is a legendary treasure that long ago was known to exist"




  6. #81
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    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    Sorry to burst your bubble, but 26 yr old 1200 yd receivers on the open market get paid. They are available....hardly ever.

    And he won't be sitting out the whole year, he can't. He will play the last 6 games and playoffs and will have plenty of suitors in 2013, believe that.
    I doubt Wallace hits the market for at least 1 more season after this. By signing Brown they've freed up the opportunity to use the franchise tag on Wallace next year. It'll be expensive, but possible and it will keep Wallace in Pittsburgh for at least 1 more season.

    I know the Steelers WANT to sign him long term, but financially I don't think they could without really limiting their future. They really have very little depth at WR right now. I can't believe I'm saying this, but if Wallace doesn't play (for whatever reason) I think I like the Ravens' receiver depth better...

    Antonio Brown
    Emmanuel Sanders
    Jericho Cotchery

    That's not a bad top 3 although Brown is the only one who has proven to be an effective starter. Sanders has upside, but hasn't done nearly what Brown has done. Cotchery is old, slow, and more of a slot guy.

    Marquis Maze - good college player, but probably will be a ST's guy in the NFL if he catches on with a team. He's 5'8".
    Derrick Williams - couldn't hang with Detroit and it's not like Detroit has been a beacon of talented receivers outside of Megatron.
    Tyler Beller - who?
    Toney Clemons - big possession guy out of Colorado (6'2" 220lbs). Might make the team as the 5th or 6th WR.
    David Gilreath - decent college reciver...very undersized though. He's like 165lbs and he's not overly fast either.
    Juamorris Stewart - who?
    Jimmy Young - Not a bad depth receiver/project guy to have. Decent player at TCU.

    So, realistically, IF Mike Wallace sits out you're looking at a very underwhelming WR unit.

    IMO, they don't have a choice but to try and work something out with Wallace otherwise their passing offense is going to be difficult to work with just from a talent perspective. I can't believe they aren't considering Plax or even TO just for some depth.
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  7. #82

    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    I doubt Wallace hits the market for at least 1 more season after this. By signing Brown they've freed up the opportunity to use the franchise tag on Wallace next year. It'll be expensive, but possible and it will keep Wallace in Pittsburgh for at least 1 more season.

    I know the Steelers WANT to sign him long term, but financially I don't think they could without really limiting their future. They really have very little depth at WR right now. I can't believe I'm saying this, but if Wallace doesn't play (for whatever reason) I think I like the Ravens' receiver depth better...

    Antonio Brown
    Emmanuel Sanders
    Jericho Cotchery

    That's not a bad top 3 although Brown is the only one who has proven to be an effective starter. Sanders has upside, but hasn't done nearly what Brown has done. Cotchery is old, slow, and more of a slot guy.

    Marquis Maze - good college player, but probably will be a ST's guy in the NFL if he catches on with a team. He's 5'8".
    Derrick Williams - couldn't hang with Detroit and it's not like Detroit has been a beacon of talented receivers outside of Megatron.
    Tyler Beller - who?
    Toney Clemons - big possession guy out of Colorado (6'2" 220lbs). Might make the team as the 5th or 6th WR.
    David Gilreath - decent college reciver...very undersized though. He's like 165lbs and he's not overly fast either.
    Juamorris Stewart - who?
    Jimmy Young - Not a bad depth receiver/project guy to have. Decent player at TCU.

    So, realistically, IF Mike Wallace sits out you're looking at a very underwhelming WR unit.

    IMO, they don't have a choice but to try and work something out with Wallace otherwise their passing offense is going to be difficult to work with just from a talent perspective. I can't believe they aren't considering Plax or even TO just for some depth.
    Wicked, they don't have the money to franchise him.

    Trust me on this one. They are going to be hard pressed to field a team with how bad the cap situation is, it is unlike anything I have ever seen before. Instead of making some tough choices this year, they kicked the can down the road to 2013 and it is flat out ugly the position they are in next year. They counted on the cap going up and it is staying flat.

    Right now they have 31 players for 2013 taking up 125 million. 31!! They have restructured to the hilt the past 2 years and can't even release a lot of players to save big because the dead money will negate the savings......from all the restructuring.

    http://steelersspreadsheet.wordpress.com/

    Only way they would have money to franchise Wallace is a straight purge ala 2002 Ravens. Honestly they might have to do that even without Wallace it is that bad.

    I might write up a detailed article sometime soon to explain it a little better and go player by player, and how they got in this position. They sold out the past two years to keep their core together, and they are going to be paying for it dearly in 2013.




  8. #83

    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    I doubt Wallace hits the market for at least 1 more season after this. By signing Brown they've freed up the opportunity to use the franchise tag on Wallace next year. It'll be expensive, but possible and it will keep Wallace in Pittsburgh for at least 1 more season.

    I know the Steelers WANT to sign him long term, but financially I don't think they could without really limiting their future. They really have very little depth at WR right now. I can't believe I'm saying this, but if Wallace doesn't play (for whatever reason) I think I like the Ravens' receiver depth better...

    Antonio Brown
    Emmanuel Sanders
    Jericho Cotchery

    That's not a bad top 3 although Brown is the only one who has proven to be an effective starter. Sanders has upside, but hasn't done nearly what Brown has done. Cotchery is old, slow, and more of a slot guy.

    Marquis Maze - good college player, but probably will be a ST's guy in the NFL if he catches on with a team. He's 5'8".
    Derrick Williams - couldn't hang with Detroit and it's not like Detroit has been a beacon of talented receivers outside of Megatron.
    Tyler Beller - who?
    Toney Clemons - big possession guy out of Colorado (6'2" 220lbs). Might make the team as the 5th or 6th WR.
    David Gilreath - decent college reciver...very undersized though. He's like 165lbs and he's not overly fast either.
    Juamorris Stewart - who?
    Jimmy Young - Not a bad depth receiver/project guy to have. Decent player at TCU.

    So, realistically, IF Mike Wallace sits out you're looking at a very underwhelming WR unit.

    IMO, they don't have a choice but to try and work something out with Wallace otherwise their passing offense is going to be difficult to work with just from a talent perspective. I can't believe they aren't considering Plax or even TO just for some depth.
    Wicked, they don't have the money to franchise him.

    Trust me on this one. They are going to be hard pressed to field a team with how bad the cap situation is, it is unlike anything I have ever seen before. Instead of making some tough choices this year, they kicked the can down the road to 2013 and it is flat out ugly the position they are in next year. They counted on the cap going up and it is staying flat.

    Right now they have 31 players for 2013 taking up 125 million. 31!! They have restructured to the hilt the past 2 years and can't even release a lot of players to save big because the dead money will negate the savings......from all the restructuring.

    http://steelersspreadsheet.wordpress.com/

    Only way they would have money to franchise Wallace is a straight purge ala 2002 Ravens. Honestly they might have to do that even without Wallace it is that bad.

    I might write up a detailed article sometime soon to explain it a little better and go player by player, and how they got in this position. They sold out the past two years to keep their core together, and they are going to be paying for it dearly in 2013.




  9. #84

    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    Wicked, they don't have the money to franchise him.

    Trust me on this one. They are going to be hard pressed to field a team with how bad the cap situation is, it is unlike anything I have ever seen before. Instead of making some tough choices this year, they kicked the can down the road to 2013 and it is flat out ugly the position they are in next year. They counted on the cap going up and it is staying flat.

    Right now they have 31 players for 2013 taking up 125 million. 31!! They have restructured to the hilt the past 2 years and can't even release a lot of players to save big because the dead money will negate the savings......from all the restructuring.

    http://steelersspreadsheet.wordpress.com/

    Only way they would have money to franchise Wallace is a straight purge ala 2002 Ravens. Honestly they might have to do that even without Wallace it is that bad.

    I might write up a detailed article sometime soon to explain it a little better and go player by player, and how they got in this position. They sold out the past two years to keep their core together, and they are going to be paying for it dearly in 2013.
    From the numbers youre posting i think that much is clear. Its not about want as wicked stated, clearly theyd rather have him than not, its about ability to actually do it. I really thought theyd have to purge this year, luckily they used the rfa tender as opposed to franchise, gambling nobody would spend a first for him correctly. They certainly did mortgage their future though with those restructures. Im not sure who our cap guy is but im thankful that we never do that so we can be consistent year in year out and keep the window open longer. Please do post the blog here, its interesting the differences in how were run and whos possibly getting axe, besides harrison who seems pretty likely.
    -JAB




  10. #85

    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Casey Hampton will get cut as well and possibly Ryan clark and more to come. They can also kiss mendenhall good bye as well




  11. #86

    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    From the numbers youre posting i think that much is clear. Its not about want as wicked stated, clearly theyd rather have him than not, its about ability to actually do it. I really thought theyd have to purge this year, luckily they used the rfa tender as opposed to franchise, gambling nobody would spend a first for him correctly. They certainly did mortgage their future though with those restructures. Im not sure who our cap guy is but im thankful that we never do that so we can be consistent year in year out and keep the window open longer. Please do post the blog here, its interesting the differences in how were run and whos possibly getting axe, besides harrison who seems pretty likely.
    One thing I messed up on after looking at my spreadsheet, Harrison has TWO years left after this one and NOT one! That is a HUGE difference. They can't release him, it wouldn't save any money. So next year they will have a 35 year old pass rusher who is already in decline taking up 11 million in cap space...and they are stuck with him.

    Wow....it is even worse than I thought.

    And to the Ravens for a comparison, they have the next 2 years right around 80 million with their top 12 guys, including if Lewis and Reed stay around and extension for Flacco. If for some reason Lewis and Reed aren't around we are at about $70 million.

    Steelers on the other hand are at 100 million again in 2014, and that is with only 10 big contracts not 12 like the Ravens have accounted for. That is with Hampton, Keisel, and Clark coming off the books.

    The future is bright for us and the division for the next couple years, that is for damn sure.

    I will try to work on the article, but it is going to take some time crunching all these numbers in depth and figuring out just how in the hell they are going to deal with this.




  12. #87
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    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    Wicked, they don't have the money to franchise him.

    Trust me on this one. They are going to be hard pressed to field a team with how bad the cap situation is, it is unlike anything I have ever seen before. Instead of making some tough choices this year, they kicked the can down the road to 2013 and it is flat out ugly the position they are in next year. They counted on the cap going up and it is staying flat.

    Right now they have 31 players for 2013 taking up 125 million. 31!! They have restructured to the hilt the past 2 years and can't even release a lot of players to save big because the dead money will negate the savings......from all the restructuring.

    http://steelersspreadsheet.wordpress.com/

    Only way they would have money to franchise Wallace is a straight purge ala 2002 Ravens. Honestly they might have to do that even without Wallace it is that bad.

    I might write up a detailed article sometime soon to explain it a little better and go player by player, and how they got in this position. They sold out the past two years to keep their core together, and they are going to be paying for it dearly in 2013.
    They're going to have to purge. I don't see what choice they have unless they keep pushing money into future caps, but sooner or later that will catch up.

    I think the Steelers will still be competitive, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them very young and inexperienced for the next few years...

    Max Starks, Casey Hampton, Larry Foote, Ryan Clark, Heath Miller, Willie Colon, Rashard Mendenhall, James Harrison...none of those guys should be feeling real comfortable right now.

    Also, you know at some point in the next few years guys like Lawrence Timmons, Pouncey, Sanders, etc are all going to be wanting contracts.
    Milk is for babies. When you grow up, you have to drink beer.

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  13. #88

    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    They're going to have to purge. I don't see what choice they have unless they keep pushing money into future caps, but sooner or later that will catch up.

    I think the Steelers will still be competitive, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them very young and inexperienced for the next few years...

    Max Starks, Casey Hampton, Larry Foote, Ryan Clark, Heath Miller, Willie Colon, Rashard Mendenhall, James Harrison...none of those guys should be feeling real comfortable right now.

    Also, you know at some point in the next few years guys like Lawrence Timmons, Pouncey, Sanders, etc are all going to be wanting contracts.
    The more I look at this the more I am thinking they don't have any other options.

    The problem is they have restructured all of the top deals, so even if they decide to bite the bullet and start cutting guys the savings just aren't going to be there with the dead money. They could have lessened the pain by starting this process in 2012, and spread it out over 2 years into 2013. Instead they did they opposite, tried to hang on for one more year and prayed the cap would go up to help them. It backfired.

    I am working on an article right now, going player by player and seeing if there is any possible way to make this work. Not seeing it, even with a purge.




  14. #89
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    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    One thing I messed up on after looking at my spreadsheet, Harrison has TWO years left after this one and NOT one! That is a HUGE difference. They can't release him, it wouldn't save any money. So next year they will have a 35 year old pass rusher who is already in decline taking up 11 million in cap space...and they are stuck with him.

    Wow....it is even worse than I thought.

    And to the Ravens for a comparison, they have the next 2 years right around 80 million with their top 12 guys, including if Lewis and Reed stay around and extension for Flacco. If for some reason Lewis and Reed aren't around we are at about $70 million.

    Steelers on the other hand are at 100 million again in 2014, and that is with only 10 big contracts not 12 like the Ravens have accounted for. That is with Hampton, Keisel, and Clark coming off the books.

    The future is bright for us and the division for the next couple years, that is for damn sure.

    I will try to work on the article, but it is going to take some time crunching all these numbers in depth and figuring out just how in the hell they are going to deal with this.
    Hmm...maybe there will be some cap room to bring in some big ticket guys? Not that I think that's how the Ravens roll, but if they have upwards of $40 mill to spare, might as well consider it...

    Greg Jennings
    Dwayne Bowe
    Mike Wallace
    Will Svitek
    Ryan Clady
    Duane Brown
    Brandon Albert
    Jake Long
    Jermon Bushrod
    Max Unger
    Geoff Hangartner
    Rey Maualuga
    William Moore
    Louis Delmas


    Obviously not many, if any, will actually be free agents, but it's possible and the Ravens will have money to throw at them.
    Milk is for babies. When you grow up, you have to drink beer.

    -Arnold Schwarzenegger



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  15. #90

    Re: Steelers Ink Antonio Brown

    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    Hmm...maybe there will be some cap room to bring in some big ticket guys? Not that I think that's how the Ravens roll, but if they have upwards of $40 mill to spare, might as well consider it...

    Greg Jennings
    Dwayne Bowe
    Mike Wallace
    Will Svitek
    Ryan Clady
    Duane Brown
    Brandon Albert
    Jake Long
    Jermon Bushrod
    Max Unger
    Geoff Hangartner
    Rey Maualuga
    William Moore
    Louis Delmas


    Obviously not many, if any, will actually be free agents, but it's possible and the Ravens will have money to throw at them.
    You have to remember though, there are still RFA's EFA's draft pool own FA etc and the other 40 players that eats up the cap money quick. 40 million may sound like a lot, but not really.

    I was just pointing out how the Ravens have structured all their top money perfectly even over the next 3 years while the Steelers have been pushing back for 2 years and finally have to pay up. I think we might have restructured one small contract and that is it.

    When all is said and done we might have around 8-10 million to play with (guess), or basically the money we had Rice locked up for, eating up our "spending money" in 2012. You could conceivably afford ONE big name addition if that is the case in 2013.

    Either way, our main competition is screwed. That is a fact. And I love it.




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