I've been starting to prep fantasy this year and I was curious to see what people were thinking about the upcoming season. At this point I'm focused on general trends more than specific players (though not entirely), but feel free to add some opinions on specific players if you reply.

RB is a crap shoot
It seems like more RBs are getting old or coming off injury than the past few years. Add in the fact that the best free agent RBs seemed to join time shares and there are very few elite RB options that seem reasonably safe. If you can get one great, but this is a year where I'd be more willing to go for an elite QB in the 1st round and then aggressively target RBs in the next few rounds.

Where to draft Gronk and Graham
I'm always hesitant to target guys coming off huge seasons. Both players are certainly capable of repeating, but it seams more likely that they'll both have good years without being quite as ridiculous.

Plus, there's bound to be at least 1 guy in most leagues that drafts them very early. If you want one of them you'll have to take them so early that you're only getting fair value for your pick even if they repeat last year's production. If they have a good season, but not the historically good season they had in 2011, your pick is now a reach. Those aren't the kind of picks that win fantasy leagues.

Let's say for arguments sake you'd need to take Gronk in the 2nd round to get him. I think it's better to take a RB at that point. Most 2nd round RBs have a pretty decent chance at being a top 10 RB. If that happens you've probably exceeded the value of an average 2nd round pick. Plus you could grab a decent TE much later in the draft, and if he's any better than decent, you again have a good value pick.

If Gronk falls to the 3rd round that argument becomes weaker, but personally I'd still be wary. As for Graham, right now I'm thinking of him has having similar value to Gronk 1 round later. So if Gronk is fair value in round 4 (which some will think is way too late) then Graham would be fair value in round 5.

I'm conflicted on QBs!!!
In most 'standard' leagues you'll only start 1 QB, so not many QBs will be drafted. Because of this I feel like there is always a QB lull at some point. If you're that guy that takes a QB right before the big lull, you're left realizing that you could have waited another several rounds to take the same guy or at least a guy of similar value. For this reason I want to wait on a QB.

But then I feel like there's an increasingly persuasive argument to take a QB early. It's probably the most predictable position. If you use an early pick you're less likely to get hosed by injuries or competition for for targets or carries. A strong formula for a fantasy championship is hitting on a high % of early picks and then getting lucky with a few sleepers and/or waiver wire studs to put you over the edge.

A top 5 QB pick is more likely to actually be a top 5 QB, so having a QB as one of your early pick seems to fit in with this approach. Plus, if a top 5 QB is more likely to be a top 5 QB, then a 6-12 QB must be less likely to be a top 5 guy, so there's less sleeper potential.

I understand VBD (value based drafting) and why it tends to devalue QBs, but VBD does NOTHING to account for variability. The #1 RB may score way more than the #20 RB, but if you have little idea who the #1 RB back will be that doesn't do you much good. For this reason, I feel VBD overvalues less predictable position groups and undervalues more predictable position groups.

So as I said I'm conflicted as to which way to lean: take a QB early or wait. You need to be flexible so I wouldn't want to commit to either approach, but I would like have a feeling for which approach I value more before draft day rolls around.

I guess I should include WRs
I hate taking WRs early. As I just pointed out, I think VBD overvalues position groups that are less predictable. Of the 4 major fantasy positions, WR is definitely the most unpredictable. That's why I I'm likely to wait and then take a bunch in the middle to late rounds. Thoughts?