ZOGBY: Scotus ruling hurting Obama

**AirFlacco** · 07-13-2012, 09:09 AM

NC - Here's a CNN link saying the same thing. It shows how much work Mitt has to do to win the Christian vote and he hasn't done any work yet.
Enter Palin.

Rice will be intended to woo conservatives in general but not just that 2/3 of all Christians.

FROM CNN:

_______________________________________

Romney, Obama battle over women voters Will Romney consider Santorum as V.P.? Gingrich: No one asked me to drop out
The Family Research Council's Tony Perkins told CNN minutes after Santorum suspended his campaign there is such a lack of enthusiasm for Romney that social conservative grass roots operations will likely turn away from the presidential race and towards efforts to put the Senate in GOP hands.
Other longtime conservative activists say Romney still has plenty of time to get them excited.
But he has to work at it.
Veteran conservative strategist Ralph Reed is one of many who told CNN Romney "has some more work to do."

**AirFlacco** · 07-13-2012, 09:13 AM

HR - Those non votes from the Christians lost it
for McCaine. He got 56M votes w/o them but just look how much closer it is with all those votes.

You're talking about the Bible belt states when in effect the Christians are in every state - over 83M total.

The links I posted above show how vital they are to the election and the Christian right has won every election it voted in as a block except
Clinton's election.

**HoustonRaven** · 07-13-2012, 09:14 AM

You just linked to something very old Trap.

It doesn't apply now. He has the nomination in hand. That was when he was still trying to secure the nomination and winning over the base.

**NCRAVEN** · 07-13-2012, 09:15 AM

Mitt according to real clear is at 181 (which I think you meant).

NC leans Romney, as does Missouri,

At this point I would say Florida leans Romney (especially when you consider the elderly who are against Obamacare.)

Virginia according to likely voter polls leans Romney, Ohio according to likely voter polls leans Romney, Iowa, leans Romney but lets say tie for those three at this point and call all these ties as well.
Colorado
Wisconsin
Nevada
Michigan

If you add all those up, it's 221 BHO to 206 Romney (giving him Missouri and NC) if you add Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Iowa (the ones leaning Romney according to LV) it's 266 Romney - 221 BHO.

I don't buy 2/3 of Christians aren't voting, not for a second, at least right now, something could change but I don't see how those numbers and these polls could be accurate.

**NCRAVEN** · 07-13-2012, 09:29 AM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

3 Million "evangelical Christians" voting or not voting nationwide doesn't not necessarily effect the election if they are not mostly located in swing states.

Most of that voting block are located in red states already going to Mittens.

Mittens needs to focus on centrists / independents at this point, not the base. He is the nominee now. Once you lock up the nomination, you move to the center. Obama will be doing the same thing. In one case he already has -- labeling the Bush tax cuts as a middle class tax cut.

Personally, I don't agree with that at all. Few points, this is a center right country and you have to show a clear difference between BHO and your policies, going his direction (moving to the center is going to the left when you start right) doesn't show that difference.

McCain showed he would go to the center and many people chose not to vote, people I personally knew didn't vote because of that.

Last, I feel a lot of "independents" are just republicans who refuse to register as one because they hate the politicians in the Republican party.

Personally, I like Mitt's approach recently of not changing his message.

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Condi ain't the VP pick. No way.

Rubio or Christie are my votes.

Are those who you want or who you think they'll take?

**wickedsolo** · 07-13-2012, 09:31 AM

Christie is a strong possibility and I think he'd do it too to prop himself up to run in 2016.

Christie is someone that I could really get behind.

**NCRAVEN** · 07-13-2012, 09:35 AM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

Christie is a strong possibility and I think he'd do it too to prop himself up to run in 2016.

Christie is someone that I could really get behind.

Really? Why? I like his no BS approach but other than that he's just okay (from what I know about him)

**AirFlacco** · 07-13-2012, 10:19 AM

This link says it's narrowed down and Condi is still on the list as a frontrunner. Some call it a brilliant
move.

http://www.drudgereport.com/

**AirFlacco** · 07-13-2012, 10:22 AM

HR - I said it was dated Sept so that's not that old and still applies.

They're still not voting as a block at this point
and thus Palin's comments. She an evangelical
Christian.

The CNN link was after Santorum gave up so that's not that old. They still have a lot of work to do and Frank Graham and the Falwells are working on the Christians.

Mitt hasn't even approached them yet, not
publicly.

NC - Mich and VA voted for OBY the last time and usually vote DEM. Wisconsin did too but they
are leaning GOP.

At 180 pts, Mitt has too much ground to make up. It's inconceivable to think he'll win fla,
ohio, mich, wisc, nc and va plus colorado and nevada.

**AirFlacco** · 07-13-2012, 10:41 AM

Back to Romney, he has met with Christian leaders like Falwell and Tony Perkins even before SCOTUS.
They tried to see how they could get the Christians to vote.

Santorum got a lot of them by speaking on social and family issues. That's how he stayed in the race as long as he did and with only a fraction of the money Romney had.

It will be crucial for Romney to include more pro-family language as part of his stump speech. Many leaders feel he needs to conceptualize evangelical type issues as he goes around the country, including a defense of this country’s Judeo-Christian principles and an explanation of the nation’s fiscal crisis in moral terms.

That will be the signal to the Christians that he wants them but as Mitt has said himself, he has to focus on jobs and the economy.

**NCRAVEN** · 07-13-2012, 10:46 AM

Originally Posted by AirFlacco

NC - Mich and VA voted for OBY the last time and usually vote DEM. Wisconsin did too but they
are leaning GOP.

At 180 pts, Mitt has too much ground to make up. It's inconceivable to think he'll win fla,
ohio, mich, wisc, nc and va plus colorado and nevada.

Well... I did list Colorado, Neveda, Michigan and Wisconsin as ties or toss ups.

But it's not inconceivable. Obama won Michigan by like 16 points and right now it's basically a tie. He won Wisconsin by 10 and it leans Romney.

I'm guessing you missed this post?

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Mitt according to real clear is at 181 (which I think you meant).

NC leans Romney, as does Missouri,

At this point I would say Florida leans Romney (especially when you consider the elderly who are against Obamacare.)

Virginia according to likely voter polls leans Romney, Ohio according to likely voter polls leans Romney, Iowa, leans Romney but lets say tie for those three at this point and call all these ties as well.
Colorado
Wisconsin
Nevada
Michigan

If you add all those up, it's 221 BHO to 206 Romney (giving him Missouri and NC) if you add Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Iowa (the ones leaning Romney according to LV) it's 266 Romney - 221 BHO.

I don't buy 2/3 of Christians aren't voting, not for a second, at least right now, something could change but I don't see how those numbers and these polls could be accurate.

**AirFlacco** · 07-13-2012, 12:28 PM

Here's a real clear update - 6/12/2012.

FLA to OBY but Rasm gives it to Mitt.
I'll go with Rasmussen.

Ohio - OBY. I gave it it Mitt.

NC - Mitt just as I said.

VA - OBY - just as I said

Mich - OBY - just as I said.

Wisconsin - OBY - I gave it to Mitt

Colorado - OBY - I had it tied.

Nevada - OBY.

THE SHOCKER FOR ME IS OHIO GOING FOR OBY. I HAD IT FOR MITT. IF HE LOSES THAT
IT'S OVER. AT 180 PTS, HE NEEDS FLA AND
OHIO TO WIN FOR 47 PTS.

RASM HAS FLA GOING FOR MITT BUT REAL
CLEAR SAYS OBY.

WITH THE OTHERS ABOVE FOR OBY, NO WAY
DOES MITT WIN IF THIS LINK HOLDS UP.

MITT NEEDS FLA AND OHIO AND WISC.
REAL CLEAR HAS THEM ALL FOR OBY.

WITH 220 REAL CLEAR POINTS, OBY ONLY
NEEDS FLA, OHIO AND MICH TO WIN.

http://www.examiner.com/article/upda...eground-states