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  1. #37
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    I'm not sure I agree with your logic. Did you here of Kelechi Osemele before the Ravens drafted him? If you didn't hear of Doss (who was supposed to be a 2nd rounder), I doubt you heard of Osemele either. They were similar in that both had a 2nd round grade after playing their ball at bottom-end schools in major conferences (Osemele at Iowa St and Doss at Indiana). Doss had a couple of injury concerns, which is why he fell.

    If Osemele doesn't pan out, he will be a bust because of where he was drafted, not because he was not that recognizable of a name heading into the draft. If Doss catches less than 50 NFL passes, he too will be a bust. Whether you heard of him or not, Doss has definite expectations as a 4th rounder, like all draftees.

    As I've said at least two dozen times on this site, 4th rounders are drafted to be starters or, at worst, valuable rotational guys
    (#3 WRs, #2 RBs, #3 tackle, #5 LB, nickleback, dimeback). They are not drafted with a "hope" that they turn into a NFL contributor. The track record clearly indicates that fourth rounders become multiple year starters as often as not.

    Even the 4th rounders who don't start 25+ games in their career often at least stick around for a few years as specialists or quality depth guys or special team aces (like Michael Robinson, Leon Washington, and Brad Smith (using my 2006 example above).
    By that logic it makes every draft who doesn't pan out a bust.





  2. #38

    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    By that logic it makes every draft who doesn't pan out a bust.
    Well, for 4th round picks, using that four year draft data I just posted......if you don't pan out as a solid NFL contributor for at least 3-4 years, it does make you a bust.

    The scale slides for each round the draft moves up or down.

    If you're drafting every 6th rounder expecting them to be a multiple year starter, you're unrealistic. However, if you go a decade and find that not a single one of your 6th round picks started more than a dozen games for you, you probably need to re-evaluate your strategy, because there are plenty of 6th rounders in every draft who start 30,40,50,60 games over their NFL careers.

    Also, if you are drafting your 3rd rounders to be role players, that's flawed too because each draft has 8-10 3rd rounders who wind up being Pro Bowlers.





  3. #39
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Well, for 4th round picks, using that four year draft data I just posted......if you don't pan out as a solid NFL contributor for at least 3-4 years, it does make you a bust.

    The scale slides for each round the draft moves up or down.

    If you're drafting every 6th rounder expecting them to be a multiple year starter, you're unrealistic. However, if you go a decade and find that not a single one of your 6th round picks started more than a dozen games for you, you probably need to re-evaluate your strategy, because there are plenty of 6th rounders in every draft who start 30,40,50,60 games over their NFL careers.

    Also, if you are drafting your 3rd rounders to be role players, that's flawed too because each draft has 8-10 3rd rounders who wind up being Pro Bowlers.
    Man... you're getting too deep into this for me. This really isn't THAT big of a deal to me.

    Here's the deal to me. Taking stats (as you're doing) and coming up with a formula to say which round is a bust or not is overlooking so many factors. It is entirely more nuanced than the argument you're making.

    I would even make the argument that some 1st rounder drafted are not bust, depending on the circumstances that surround the player, background, college, competition, coaching, team, city etc. etc. etc.





  4. #40
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    Honestly if the guy isn't on the team people can label him anyway they want. Hopefully we won't have to find out this year.





  5. #41

    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    I would even make the argument that some 1st rounder drafted are not bust, depending on the circumstances that surround the player, background, college, competition, coaching, team, city etc. etc. etc.


    Not sure I follow this statement, NC. Can you elaborate? What does a players background or college program have to do with whether they are a bust on an NFL level?





  6. #42
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by GOTA View Post
    Honestly if the guy isn't on the team people can label him anyway they want. Hopefully we won't have to find out this year.
    0% chance. Doss makes this team atleast as depth. Hes better than deonte, streeter, and possibly jones. I really think he contributes this year but even if he doesnt his knowledge of the offense is valuable. I really expect him to win the 3rd WR spot though.
    -JAB





  7. #43

    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    0% chance. Doss makes this team atleast as depth. Hes better than deonte, streeter, and possibly jones. I really think he contributes this year but even if he doesnt his knowledge of the offense is valuable. I really expect him to win the 3rd WR spot though.
    Agreed. Barring injury, Doss will be on the opening week 53 man roster. He's still only 22 and really played well in the preseason last year.





  8. #44
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    0% chance. Doss makes this team atleast as depth. Hes better than deonte, streeter, and possibly jones...
    While I may agree that Doss probably won't be cut, how do you know he isn't better than Deonte, Streeter, or Jones? This is your (a fan's assessment), but may not be Harb's (the coaching staff's) estimate. So far IMO he hasn't shown he belongs on the 53 man roster... only that the Ravens don't want to be embarrassed that they cut a 4th round draft choice so early in his career... Bc





  9. #45
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    I think that development should play a role in whether or not a player is determined a bust. For example, Jason Pierre-Paul was an significantly athletic defensive end, best suited for the DE spot in a 4-3, but was considered a very raw talent who would take years to develop. He was not a very 'Pro-ready' prospect. Should we have labeled him a bust anyway, if he hadn't developed, because he was drafted in the first round? Even though everyone knew his profile? What if he'd ended up on a team that would have tried to turn him into a 3-4 DE? Would that have been his fault and does fault matter when one takes the 'bust' label into consideration?
    "Please take with you this final sword, The Excellector. I am praying that your journey will be guided by the light", Leon Shore





  10. #46
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by BcRaven View Post
    While I may agree that Doss probably won't be cut, how do you know he isn't better than Deonte, Streeter, or Jones? This is your (a fan's assessment), but may not be Harb's (the coaching staff's) estimate. So far IMO he hasn't shown he belongs on the 53 man roster... only that the Ravens don't want to be embarrassed that they cut a 4th round draft choice so early in his career... Bc
    Well, I can already tell you that he will catch the ball better than Jones. You can take that to the bank.
    "Please take with you this final sword, The Excellector. I am praying that your journey will be guided by the light", Leon Shore





  11. #47

    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    1995-2009 4th Round receiver numbers.....

    61 players drafted
    9 out of 61 (14.8%) never caught an NFL Pass
    17 out of 61 (27.9%) never caught more than 10 passes
    Only 19 1000 yd years out of 253 seasons (7.5%) (Mason and Marshall have 13)
    Only 8 different players out of 61 (13.1%) had at least 1 1000 yd season
    13 out of 61 (21.3%) played 1 season or less
    19 out of 61 (31.1%) played 2 seasons or less
    29 out of 61 (47.5%) played 3 seasons or less
    39 out of 61 (63.9%) I would qualify as busts
    1 out of 61 superstar All Pro (1.6%)
    1 out of 61 number 1's (1.6%)
    2 out of 61 number 2's (3.2%)
    7 out of 61 number 3's (11.5%)
    11 out of 61 number 4/teams (18%)





  12. #48
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    Man... you're getting too deep into this for me. This really isn't THAT big of a deal to me.

    Here's the deal to me. Taking stats (as you're doing) and coming up with a formula to say which round is a bust or not is overlooking so many factors. It is entirely more nuanced than the argument you're making.

    I would even make the argument that some 1st rounder drafted are not bust, depending on the circumstances that surround the player, background, college, competition, coaching, team, city etc. etc. etc.
    But that's almost like saying busts don't exist. For every NFL prospect that doesn't make it you could probably come up with a non-talent related reason that isn't entirely their own fault for why they failed.

    I think the problem here is that bust is just to broad of a term. There are different degrees of being a bust. Guys like Jamarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf are colossal busts. Then you have guys like Reggie Bush, who has had a productive career but compared to the expectations that was placed on him when he was drafted he's been a disappointment. And then there are those guys who just didn't even come close to panning out, like say Yamon Figurs. That's where Doss would fall if he was cut this offseason, which he will not be. The Ravens would find some way to stick him on IR if he was beat out by that many guys.





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