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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
Well, for 4th round picks, using that four year draft data I just posted......if you don't pan out as a solid NFL contributor for at least 3-4 years, it does make you a bust.
The scale slides for each round the draft moves up or down.
If you're drafting every 6th rounder expecting them to be a multiple year starter, you're unrealistic. However, if you go a decade and find that not a single one of your 6th round picks started more than a dozen games for you, you probably need to re-evaluate your strategy, because there are plenty of 6th rounders in every draft who start 30,40,50,60 games over their NFL careers.
Also, if you are drafting your 3rd rounders to be role players, that's flawed too because each draft has 8-10 3rd rounders who wind up being Pro Bowlers.
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
Man... you're getting too deep into this for me. This really isn't THAT big of a deal to me.
Here's the deal to me. Taking stats (as you're doing) and coming up with a formula to say which round is a bust or not is overlooking so many factors. It is entirely more nuanced than the argument you're making.
I would even make the argument that some 1st rounder drafted are not bust, depending on the circumstances that surround the player, background, college, competition, coaching, team, city etc. etc. etc.
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Honestly if the guy isn't on the team people can label him anyway they want. Hopefully we won't have to find out this year.
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
-JAB
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06-25-2012, 07:37 PM #44Legendary RSR Poster
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
While I may agree that Doss probably won't be cut, how do you know he isn't better than Deonte, Streeter, or Jones? This is your (a fan's assessment), but may not be Harb's (the coaching staff's) estimate. So far IMO he hasn't shown he belongs on the 53 man roster... only that the Ravens don't want to be embarrassed that they cut a 4th round draft choice so early in his career... Bc
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
I think that development should play a role in whether or not a player is determined a bust. For example, Jason Pierre-Paul was an significantly athletic defensive end, best suited for the DE spot in a 4-3, but was considered a very raw talent who would take years to develop. He was not a very 'Pro-ready' prospect. Should we have labeled him a bust anyway, if he hadn't developed, because he was drafted in the first round? Even though everyone knew his profile? What if he'd ended up on a team that would have tried to turn him into a 3-4 DE? Would that have been his fault and does fault matter when one takes the 'bust' label into consideration?
"Please take with you this final sword, The Excellector. I am praying that your journey will be guided by the light", Leon Shore
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
"Please take with you this final sword, The Excellector. I am praying that your journey will be guided by the light", Leon Shore
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
1995-2009 4th Round receiver numbers.....
61 players drafted
9 out of 61 (14.8%) never caught an NFL Pass
17 out of 61 (27.9%) never caught more than 10 passes
Only 19 1000 yd years out of 253 seasons (7.5%) (Mason and Marshall have 13)
Only 8 different players out of 61 (13.1%) had at least 1 1000 yd season
13 out of 61 (21.3%) played 1 season or less
19 out of 61 (31.1%) played 2 seasons or less
29 out of 61 (47.5%) played 3 seasons or less
39 out of 61 (63.9%) I would qualify as busts
1 out of 61 superstar All Pro (1.6%)
1 out of 61 number 1's (1.6%)
2 out of 61 number 2's (3.2%)
7 out of 61 number 3's (11.5%)
11 out of 61 number 4/teams (18%)Follow me on Twitter! https://twitter.com/#!/thenflanalyst
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06-25-2012, 08:42 PM #48
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
But that's almost like saying busts don't exist. For every NFL prospect that doesn't make it you could probably come up with a non-talent related reason that isn't entirely their own fault for why they failed.
I think the problem here is that bust is just to broad of a term. There are different degrees of being a bust. Guys like Jamarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf are colossal busts. Then you have guys like Reggie Bush, who has had a productive career but compared to the expectations that was placed on him when he was drafted he's been a disappointment. And then there are those guys who just didn't even come close to panning out, like say Yamon Figurs. That's where Doss would fall if he was cut this offseason, which he will not be. The Ravens would find some way to stick him on IR if he was beat out by that many guys.
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