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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
Just to show you that I'm not howling at the moon here, I went back six years and picked the 2006 draft class at random to illustrate my point.
In the 4th round of the 2006 draft there were 36 picks.
Over half of those 36 picks (19) played a game in 2011. So six years into their NFL careers, half still are playing. Doesn't sound like long odds does it?
25 of those players (69.4%) played into the 2010 season. So nearly 70% of that draft class were still in the NFL after five years.
Only 3 out of 36 of those players never appeared in an NFL game. Ex Raven PJ Daniels only appeared in one (he was the definition of a bust).
Let's look at the players from the 4th round of the 06 draft.
Pick 98- Owen Daniels (Pro Bowler, still in league)----definitely not a bust
Pick 99- Max Jean-Giles (42 games played, 26 started, out of the league in 2010)- Far from a bust.
100- Michael Robinson-87 career games played, still in league---versatile NFL player. No bust
101- Darnell Bing- only 5 games played- BUST
102- Calvin Lowry- was out of football by 2008, but played in every game (48-including 14 starts) during his first 3 years- Not a bust. Possibly could be considered a small disappointment, but not a bust.
103- Brad Smith- has appeared in 91 of a possible 96 games. Like Robinson, very versatile player. Far from a bust.
104- Cory Rodgers-never played in a NFL game- BUST
105- Ko Simpson- played 4 years and 41 games (32 starts). Registered 127 career tackles
106- Garrett Mills- Still in NFL as of 2011
107- Gabe Watson- played 5 years and 82 games (21 starts)
108- Jahri Evans- Future Hall of Famer
109- Jason Avant- 86 career games- still in NFL- very solid #3 WR on some good Eagles teams
110- Leon Williams- 57 games played (12 starts) over 4 seasons
111- Demetrius Williams- 46 games played (4 starts) over 5 years. 1008 career receiving yards.
112- Isaac Sowells- 17 games (no starts)
113- Victor Adenyanju- 53 games (26 starts)
114- Joe Toledo-0 NFL games
115- Will Blackmon- played parts of all six seasons, 43 games, 2 starts- Still in NFL as of 2011
116- Stephen Tulloch- played in all 96 games (61 starts). Very good NFL linebacker for years to come.
117- Leon Washington- 87 games played. Pro Bowler.
118- Stephen Gostkowski- not sure 4th round kickers should be compared to 4th round "real" football players, but he did make a pro bowl
119- Brandon Marshall - three time Pro Bowler. Building a decent HOF resume. Has averaged 95 catches a year over the last 5 years. Five straight 1000 yard seasons.
120- Jamar Williams- 54 career games- 3 starts
121- Nate Salley- 24 career games- 0 starts
122- Alan Zemeitis- 0 NFL games
123- Domato Peko- 91 career games (76 starts)- Played at a near Pro Bowl level in 2011. Have to figure that his career has many more years left.
124- Barry Cofield- Has played in 95 of a possible 96 games in his career thusfar. 94 starts. Very solid NFL player.
125- Skyler Green-11 NFL games
126- Elvis Dumervil- 2 time Pro Bowler, First team All Pro, 53 sacks in 75 career games.
127- Ray Edwards- 88 career games. 74 starts. Got a huge contract in the 2011 offseason after two very good seasons in Minnesota.
128- Rob Sims- 77 career games. 66 career starts. Has started every game for the Lions the past two seasons.
129- Guy Whimper- 51 career games. Started 15 of 16 games for Dolphins in 2011.
130- Domenick Hixon- 48 games played- Still in NFL. Occasional WR and very good special teamer.
131- Willie Colon- 51 games played. 51 starts. Effective player when healthy. Still active in NFL although only made one start in 2011. Started 48 straight games, plus playoffs, for Steelers from 08-10.
132- PJ Daniels- only one NFL game
133- Orien Harris- 20 NFL games. One start.
I realize this is just one randomly-selected season, but I really have no idea where the misconcepcion that 4th round NFL players don't often amount to much originated. It's severely incorrect.
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
Just a litte more info about the 2006 draft.
Six years later.
30 of 32 first round picks are still active. (pushing 95%)
27 of 32 2nd round picks are still active
18 of 33 3rd round picks are still active (over 50%)
17 of 35 5th round picks are still active (just shy of 50%)
14 of 38 6th round picks are still active (nearly 40%)
11 of 46 7th round picks are still active (including Marques Colston and Cortland Finnegan)
So, to go a step further, nearly 40% of all 2006 SIXTH rounders are still in the NFL six years later. Those don't sound like long odds to me.
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
I think what this shows more than anything else is the draft is a crap shoot. It doesn't really relate to the expectation of a 4th rounder on, IMO.
IF Doss doesn't make the team or play, he won't be a bust to me. A bust to me, is someone with hype or high expectation based on talent or performance. Doss doesn't fall into ether of those to me, seeing as how I never heard of him till the Ravens drafted him.
That said, I'm glad he seems to be on the right track and I wish him well.
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
I keep circulating things I hear on SiriusXM NFL radio. Take it up with Ross Tucker and Bob Poppa who spent a lot of time on it during the draft. They also weren't looking at 1 particular season but an average over time. It was one of those 'since 2000' kind of stats. Tucker was an undrafted free agent who made it which is one of the reasons why he was interested. We all know that certain drafts are better than others so maybe 2006 happened to be a better year for 4th round picks?
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
Just to prove that 2006 wasn't a fluke, I went to 2005.
Of the 36 draft picks in the 2005 draft, nearly 50% (17 of 36) were still active as of 2011. That's now 7 years removed from being drafted and nearly half played in the 2011 season.
This list includes current Raven Sean Considine and former Raven Jason Brown.
It also includes Kyle Orton, Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs (two physical players who have survived 7 NFL season at the most age-depreciated position in the league)
It also includes David Stewart, who is an excellent RT for the Titans. He's been their starter there for the last six years.
It include Kerry Rhodes, who has played in 103 NFL games, including 101 starts. Rhodes started every game for the Jets from 05-08. 19 career INTs and nearing 450 career tackles.
Brady Poppinga started 12 games at LB for the Rams last year (not saying much), but also had 44 starts for the Packers.
Todd Harremans has started 92 of the last 96 games for the Eagles.
Darren Sproles was voted as one of the top 100 players this past year.
Chris Canty has started 86 games for the Giants and Cowboys.
These aren't just no-namers holding on as special teamers.
Also, 14 of 39 sixth round draft picks in 2005 were still active as of the 2011 season (37%).
I'm sorry, but if half of the 4th rounders make it to their 6th or 7th year, the expectation should be that they turn into a productive NFL player. There are varying levels of productivity. Not everyone is a Dumervil or a Brandon Marshall or a Jahri Evans or a Stephen Tulloch, but those guys are not that big of an exception. In the 2006 4th round draft class, there were more future Pro Bowlers than there were players who played less than 25 NFL games. What does that tell you about what's expected from a 4th rounder?
Even 6th rounders have a pretty decent likelihood of having a very good NFL career. The way GOTA makes it sound, it's like 1 out of 10 6th rounders who ever amount to a starting NFL player. That's just not true obviously if here we are 6, 7 years later and 35-40% of them are still occupying a NFL roster.
If Tandon Doss never materializes as a NFL player, there will be no mistake that he was a bust.
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
That was what I wanted to check as well. See my post above about the 2005 draft. The numbers are even stronger for the 2005 draft, considering an extra year has passed. Those are just two years I realize. However, I would guess they aren't too far removed from the rest of the other years.
I think your problem is you listen to the talking heads in the media to form your assessment of reality. They are all virtually clueless when you put their statements alongside of actual real facts and stats.
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
Of the 36 players taken in the 4th round of 2004, 12 (33.3%) were active in 2011. That's 8 years removed from the draft. The biggest name on that list is Jared Allen.
In the 2007 draft, 22 of the 37 players drafted (roughly 60%) were active as of 2011. Names on that list include Michael Bush, Paul Soliai, Jermon Bushrod, Doug Free, Dashon Goldston (stud) and former Ravens LeRon McClain and Antwan Barnes.
I'm not sure who these two guys are who are on Sirius radio, but they are mis-calibrating the data in terms of what expectations should be for 4th, 5th, and 6th rounders.
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
I should have put in the context of their conversation which would explain it a little more. They were trying to determine if it makes sense to trade a draft pick to move up to get the player you want. Their object was to figure what a 4th or 5th round pick was worth beyond a number on a trade chart. Obviously there are lots of great players taken in every round in the draft or not even drafted. There are also many who don't really do much.
So what is the value of Tandon Doss? Should he get preferential treatment over guys who were taken lower than him or undrafted because he was a 4th round pick? Does it really matter if he has PJ Daniels career of 1 NFL game of Garrett Mills career of bouncing around from team to team for years without doing much? There is a reason why teams will give up these picks to try and get someone they think as a better prospect. If Doss gets pushed out by LaQuan Williams or Tommy Streeter I don't think that makes him a bust. It just means he wasn't able to make it here. Maybe he'll do better somewhere else.
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
I'm not sure I agree with your logic. Did you here of Kelechi Osemele before the Ravens drafted him? If you didn't hear of Doss (who was supposed to be a 2nd rounder), I doubt you heard of Osemele either. They were similar in that both had a 2nd round grade after playing their ball at bottom-end schools in major conferences (Osemele at Iowa St and Doss at Indiana). Doss had a couple of injury concerns, which is why he fell.
If Osemele doesn't pan out, he will be a bust because of where he was drafted, not because he was not that recognizable of a name heading into the draft. If Doss catches less than 50 NFL passes, he too will be a bust. Whether you heard of him or not, Doss has definite expectations as a 4th rounder, like all draftees.
As I've said at least two dozen times on this site, 4th rounders are drafted to be starters or, at worst, valuable rotational guys (#3 WRs, #2 RBs, #3 tackle, #5 LB, nickleback, dimeback). They are not drafted with a "hope" that they turn into a NFL contributor. The track record clearly indicates that fourth rounders become multiple year starters as often as not.
Even the 4th rounders who don't start 25+ games in their career often at least stick around for a few years as specialists or quality depth guys or special team aces (like Michael Robinson, Leon Washington, and Brad Smith (using my 2006 example above).
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Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier
This is a valid point. Someone like Doss probably has a lot less of a chance of materializing because he plays for the Ravens, who are typically one of the most talent-laden franchises year in and year out. You put Doss on a bottom-feeder like Tampa or Washington or Cleveland and he might have a different career value.
Also, from the Ravens standpoint, if Doss flops and Laquan Williams turns into a solid 6 or 7 year veteran for the Ravens, I think Doss' (theoretical) failure won't matter as much since they got were able a contributor at the same position from the same draft. That's the beauty of undrafted FAs. They are your mulligans.
If DeAngelo Tyson never plays a snap for the Ravens, but Jean-Baptiste turns into the next Kelly Gregg, doe you think anyone will care about Tyson's failure?
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