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  1. #16
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier



    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    I don't think a 4th rounder can be a bust, per se, but there has been some high expectations on the kid considering it's been reported about how good his hands are.
    On principle I don't agree. Why (?) are only 1st and 2nd round choices busts? IMO even a 6th round draft choice (Harewood) can be a bust.
    Wasn't Brady a 6th? IMO any pick can be a "steal" or a "bust" regardless of round picked... Bc




  2. #17
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    Id say top 4 rounds you have to have some expectation for them. 1st being a future star, 2/3 being a future good player, and 3/4 being future contributors, each GM being a little different.
    True. You can actually read what DeCosta had to say about expectations for players they scout and draft, and how they categorize them -- which isn't as much a system of placing players into rounds as it is a system of placing players into roles within the Ravens style of play. Tony did a nice interview two years ago with DeCosta and it got pretty specific.

    TL: Paul Kruger is a player who didn’t see the field much in ’09 and I’ve heard him referred to as a developmental player. Do you ever consciously draft players based on projected ceilings knowing that they may take a year or two to develop?

    ED: Our grading system is based on several different levels. The first level basically asks the question “Is the player a Pro-bowler, a starter, a backup, or a free-agent camp guy?”

    The second level breaks the starter and backup categories (the two groups most players fall into) into different levels (i.e. first-year starter like Michael Oher, second-year starter like Ray Rice, potential possible starter over time like Dwan Edwards or Casey Rabach, backup for the Ravens like Haruki Nakamura, or backup for the league).

    Our scouts are required to PROJECT players based on their college experience, personality, and background. Unlike a lot of teams, we don’t rank players based on round we would select, we rank players based on role both short-term and long-term. This is a significant difference.

    So yes, we draft players with lots different levels of expectations. We don’t expect every player to start day one or even, in some cases, to ever be a starter. We take a more macro approach aimed at building the best possible team. That entails sometimes taking a lesser player with a great makeup who will be a great backup rather than drafting a really good player with a poor makeup who will be a terrible team guy or bad backup.
    They tend to tweak their approach from year to year -- for instance, they've put more emphasis on evaluating small-school prospects this year -- but the general philosophy stays the same. You can assume that Doss was seen as a guy who would take time to develop and maybe contribute as a kick returner in the meantime.




  3. #18
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    Re: For those counting out Doss already...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyle Cactus View Post
    I wouldn't be surprised to see Jones start the season as the #3 but then get benched after a critical dropped pass at some point in favor of the sure-handed Doss.
    Unfortunately, if Jones goes into the season as the third WR, I have a feeling that this is how it will shake out. Jones will drop passes. Doss won't. Flacco will still give Jones chances, but will start looking for Doss. Now, Flacco did continue to look for Torrey. The question may be whether or not it would be different for Jones. However, there is evidence that Flacco likes throwing to certain guys and the constant theme is consistent hands (Mason, Washington, Heap, Pitta).
    "When questioned, the Elders explained that they were in search of magical powers. However, they're actually searching for the whereabouts of a certain ring. This ring is a legendary treasure that long ago was known to exist"




  4. #19
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by BcRaven View Post
    On principle I don't agree. Why (?) are only 1st and 2nd round choices busts? IMO even a 6th round draft choice (Harewood) can be a bust.
    Wasn't Brady a 6th? IMO any pick can be a "steal" or a "bust" regardless of round picked... Bc
    You must have a pretty long list of steals and busts then. Last time I heard the stats less than 20% of 4th round picks become starters and most don't make it past year 4 in the NFL. I couldn't tell you what years those stats were taken from but it's a topic around every draft because a lot of teams trade those picks to move around in the draft. If you look at all the kids that get drafted and sign as undrafted free agents a large number have to also leave the league every year.

    4th through 7th rounders who actually stick around for several year is a lot bigger news than those who don't. I liked the Doss pick and hope he does stay here for a while but if he does get cut I just can't see that as him being a bust.
    He Who Dares.....Wins




  5. #20
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by GOTA View Post
    You must have a pretty long list of steals and busts then. Last time I heard the stats less than 20% of 4th round picks become starters and most don't make it past year 4 in the NFL. I couldn't tell you what years those stats were taken from but it's a topic around every draft because a lot of teams trade those picks to move around in the draft. If you look at all the kids that get drafted and sign as undrafted free agents a large number have to also leave the league every year.

    4th through 7th rounders who actually stick around for several year is a lot bigger news than those who don't. I liked the Doss pick and hope he does stay here for a while but if he does get cut I just can't see that as him being a bust.

    I think it's fair to say that terms like bust and steal fall into the realm of subjective expectations, not objective achievements. These terms remind me of some other subjective ideas -- like "#1 receiver" or "skill player" that are thrown around as if they are concrete ideas, but are really not.

    Objectively, we can count the number of starts a player has...or if he's on the active roster at all...or how many special teams tackles he has. But there is no way of defining "bust" in that way.

    To agree on if a player is a bust you have to agree on on what you had expected from him.

    There have been a bunch of relatively high picks who never seem to stay on the field and eventually wash out -- your Dan Cody, Devard Darling, David Pittman types. I don't really seem them as busts, but as developmental players who don't develop. Even a Mark Clayton I would not call a bust -- he too struggled with injuries here and in St. Louis.

    If you expect every pick to work out, then I suppose you can call these guys busts.

    Oniel Cousins was a developmental lineman who did nothing for the Ravens, but then he hooked on with the Browns. I am reluctant to call him a bust, too.

    But then you have lower-round guys like Marcus Smith or Gerome Sapp or Lamont Brightful or Justin Green who I would call busts because they didn't even get close to developing. I would bet a lot of other people would not term these guys busts because of low expectations, but to not even compete to me makes you a busted pick.

    A lot of those same people would call Travis Taylor a bust. I wouldn't necessarily though. He did compete, just not anywhere near the level of expectation we had for him.




  6. #21
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by GOTA View Post
    You must have a pretty long list of steals and busts then. Last time I heard the stats less than 20% of 4th round picks become starters and most don't make it past year 4 in the NFL. I couldn't tell you what years those stats were taken from but it's a topic around every draft because a lot of teams trade those picks to move around in the draft. If you look at all the kids that get drafted and sign as undrafted free agents a large number have to also leave the league every year.

    4th through 7th rounders who actually stick around for several year is a lot bigger news than those who don't. I liked the Doss pick and hope he does stay here for a while but if he does get cut I just can't see that as him being a bust.
    Damn you GOTA...LOL ! Well, my list is as long as the time my sister-in-law has been out of work. However, IMO if Doss does get cut (which I really hope he doesn't) then he is a "bust." After all, didn't Flacco personally name him prior to the 2011 draft? We fans cannot just excuse those 4th through 7th round picks that don't make it. Teams that thrive find jewels in late round picks, and (thank you Ozzie) in UDFAs... Bc




  7. #22
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by GOTA View Post
    Can a 4th round pick be a bust? Doss has to beat the odds to have a career longer than a couple of years. Even if he doesn't make the team this year you can't really call him a bust.
    The average career length of a 4th round draft pick is 5.3 years. If Doss got cut after just one season, he would be a colossal bust. You keep circulating these factually incorrect statistics about draft picks relating to their career lengths and career starts.




  8. #23
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by BcRaven View Post
    On principle I don't agree. Why (?) are only 1st and 2nd round choices busts? IMO even a 6th round draft choice (Harewood) can be a bust.
    Wasn't Brady a 6th? IMO any pick can be a "steal" or a "bust" regardless of round picked... Bc
    Correct statement. A sixth round pick can very easily be a bust. The average career length for a 6th rounder is just shy of 4 years. I don't have all the data in front of me from my research, but I also believe that the average 6th rounder starts somewhere in the 18-20 game range over their career. So if you have a 6th rounder like Harewood who never makes an NFL roster, he's definitely a big bust.




  9. #24
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Correct statement. A sixth round pick can very easily be a bust. The average career length for a 6th rounder is just shy of 4 years. I don't have all the data in front of me from my research, but I also believe that the average 6th rounder starts somewhere in the 18-20 game range over their career. So if you have a 6th rounder like Harewood who never makes an NFL roster, he's definitely a big bust.
    Is that the average games a 6th rounder starts, or is that of 6th rounders who make a team, starts 18 -20 games?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  10. #25
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    Is that the average games a 6th rounder starts, or is that of 6th rounders who make a team, starts 18 -20 games?
    Average games a sixth rounder starts in his career. I don't have the exact data in front of me. It's on my home computer. My point is that these statements about the long odds of having a successful career as a 4th-7th round draft picks are not correct.




  11. #26
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Average games a sixth rounder starts in his career. I don't have the exact data in front of me. It's on my home computer. My point is that these statements about the long odds of having a successful career as a 4th-7th round draft picks are not correct.
    I have a hard time believing that the average game started when taking into account every 6th rounder ever drafted is 18 -20, not games played but started....

    If you find that info, I'd would appreciate it if you remember to post it...
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  12. #27
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    Thumbs up Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Just to show you that I'm not howling at the moon here, I went back six years and picked the 2006 draft class at random to illustrate my point.

    In the 4th round of the 2006 draft there were 36 picks.

    Over half of those 36 picks (19) played a game in 2011. So six years into their NFL careers, half still are playing. Doesn't sound like long odds does it?

    25 of those players (69.4%) played into the 2010 season. So nearly 70% of that draft class were still in the NFL after five years.

    Only 3 out of 36 of those players never appeared in an NFL game. Ex Raven PJ Daniels only appeared in one (he was the definition of a bust).

    Let's look at the players from the 4th round of the 06 draft.

    Pick 98- Owen Daniels (Pro Bowler, still in league)----definitely not a bust

    Pick 99- Max Jean-Giles (42 games played, 26 started, out of the league in 2010)- Far from a bust.

    100- Michael Robinson-87 career games played, still in league---versatile NFL player. No bust

    101- Darnell Bing- only 5 games played- BUST

    102- Calvin Lowry- was out of football by 2008, but played in every game (48-including 14 starts) during his first 3 years- Not a bust. Possibly could be considered a small disappointment, but not a bust.

    103- Brad Smith- has appeared in 91 of a possible 96 games. Like Robinson, very versatile player. Far from a bust.

    104- Cory Rodgers-never played in a NFL game- BUST

    105- Ko Simpson- played 4 years and 41 games (32 starts). Registered 127 career tackles

    106- Garrett Mills- Still in NFL as of 2011

    107- Gabe Watson- played 5 years and 82 games (21 starts)

    108- Jahri Evans- Future Hall of Famer

    109- Jason Avant- 86 career games- still in NFL- very solid #3 WR on some good Eagles teams

    110- Leon Williams- 57 games played (12 starts) over 4 seasons

    111- Demetrius Williams- 46 games played (4 starts) over 5 years. 1008 career receiving yards.

    112- Isaac Sowells- 17 games (no starts)

    113- Victor Adenyanju- 53 games (26 starts)

    114- Joe Toledo-0 NFL games

    115- Will Blackmon- played parts of all six seasons, 43 games, 2 starts- Still in NFL as of 2011

    116- Stephen Tulloch- played in all 96 games (61 starts). Very good NFL linebacker for years to come.

    117- Leon Washington- 87 games played. Pro Bowler.

    118- Stephen Gostkowski- not sure 4th round kickers should be compared to 4th round "real" football players, but he did make a pro bowl

    119- Brandon Marshall - three time Pro Bowler. Building a decent HOF resume. Has averaged 95 catches a year over the last 5 years. Five straight 1000 yard seasons.

    120- Jamar Williams- 54 career games- 3 starts

    121- Nate Salley- 24 career games- 0 starts

    122- Alan Zemeitis- 0 NFL games

    123- Domato Peko- 91 career games (76 starts)- Played at a near Pro Bowl level in 2011. Have to figure that his career has many more years left.

    124- Barry Cofield- Has played in 95 of a possible 96 games in his career thusfar. 94 starts. Very solid NFL player.

    125- Skyler Green-11 NFL games

    126- Elvis Dumervil- 2 time Pro Bowler, First team All Pro, 53 sacks in 75 career games.

    127- Ray Edwards- 88 career games. 74 starts. Got a huge contract in the 2011 offseason after two very good seasons in Minnesota.

    128- Rob Sims- 77 career games. 66 career starts. Has started every game for the Lions the past two seasons.

    129- Guy Whimper- 51 career games. Started 15 of 16 games for Dolphins in 2011.

    130- Domenick Hixon- 48 games played- Still in NFL. Occasional WR and very good special teamer.

    131- Willie Colon- 51 games played. 51 starts. Effective player when healthy. Still active in NFL although only made one start in 2011. Started 48 straight games, plus playoffs, for Steelers from 08-10.

    132- PJ Daniels- only one NFL game

    133- Orien Harris- 20 NFL games. One start.


    I realize this is just one randomly-selected season, but I really have no idea where the misconcepcion that 4th round NFL players don't often amount to much originated. It's severely incorrect.




  13. #28
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Just a litte more info about the 2006 draft.

    Six years later.

    30 of 32 first round picks are still active. (pushing 95%)

    27 of 32 2nd round picks are still active

    18 of 33 3rd round picks are still active (over 50%)

    17 of 35 5th round picks are still active (just shy of 50%)

    14 of 38 6th round picks are still active (nearly 40%)

    11 of 46 7th round picks are still active (including Marques Colston and Cortland Finnegan)


    So, to go a step further, nearly 40% of all 2006 SIXTH rounders are still in the NFL six years later. Those don't sound like long odds to me.




  14. #29
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    So, to go a step further, nearly 40% of all 2006 SIXTH rounders are still in the NFL six years later. Those don't sound like long odds to me.
    I think what this shows more than anything else is the draft is a crap shoot. It doesn't really relate to the expectation of a 4th rounder on, IMO.

    IF Doss doesn't make the team or play, he won't be a bust to me. A bust to me, is someone with hype or high expectation based on talent or performance. Doss doesn't fall into ether of those to me, seeing as how I never heard of him till the Ravens drafted him.

    That said, I'm glad he seems to be on the right track and I wish him well.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  15. #30
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    Re: Doss Fully Recovered and 10 pounds heavier

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    The average career length of a 4th round draft pick is 5.3 years. If Doss got cut after just one season, he would be a colossal bust. You keep circulating these factually incorrect statistics about draft picks relating to their career lengths and career starts.
    I keep circulating things I hear on SiriusXM NFL radio. Take it up with Ross Tucker and Bob Poppa who spent a lot of time on it during the draft. They also weren't looking at 1 particular season but an average over time. It was one of those 'since 2000' kind of stats. Tucker was an undrafted free agent who made it which is one of the reasons why he was interested. We all know that certain drafts are better than others so maybe 2006 happened to be a better year for 4th round picks?
    He Who Dares.....Wins




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