Why Obama is winning the swing-states thus winning the electoral votes and thus winning the election.

[StingerNLG]

Hey, are we still taking about swing states? New Michigan poll from We Ask America.

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/06/20/ia-mi/

Romney 45 - Obama 43. 12% undecided.

[NCRAVEN]

Hey, are we still taking about swing states? New Michigan poll from We Ask America.

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/06/20/ia-mi/

Romney 45 - Obama 43. 12% undecided.

And they sampled twice as many as the Rasmussen poll did. This is why have a hard time believing any polls. One polls 500 and has BHO +8 the other polls 1000 and has Romney plus 2. Beats me...

[AirFlacco]

Its impressive that some of the noobs around here who have probably never followed the polls leading up to a national election (not referring to you Trap as you were here through the last Obama ass whooping) are finally understanding that state elections are more important at this point than national. Now the class needs to understand that states, for the most part, are only polled monthly. A couple point swing in a swing state isn't worth all the hoopla we have seen on this thread. As far as Trap, while you have been through elections here, your political acumen sucks

And your's don't? You forget that McCain was 2 pts ahead when the
markets crashed in Oct 08. One month later and OBY doesn't even win.

I was also around for Regan's thrashing of Jimmy Carter whose economy
wasn't as bad as this and Nixon's thrashing of his opponents.


Of course, Obama lost some leads. The party will coalesce around Romney once all the carnival barkers dropped out. There are some state pollings that I believe hold more importance than others. This election is about the "rust belt" and the Latino vote. Rassmussen just came out with their latest Michigan poll. +8 Obama. This is worth stepping into the fray a bit with the LIVs here. +8 in Michigan shows, that for today, Obama's GM message is resonating. Look for WI and OH to see if the last polling was abberant. The Obama camp loves the MI data though.



Michigan is tied after OBY blew a big lead. He's going to need more than
them to bail him out. As the economy worsens over the summer he'll lose
more groups.

The Latino vote in Nevada, VA, FLA and Colorado should be interesting nextpolling. Obama is still strong in VA. Obama stymied the GOP with his Dream Act Lite last week and I have to think he gets a nice bump across those states. My Latino friends from MD down through Andean spine all heard his message and it was a political winner as well as a moral winner.

I read today where Rubio was quoted as saying, "If my kids went to sleep hungry every night and my country didn't give me an opportunity to feed them, there isn't a law, no matter how restrictive, that would prevent me from coming here."

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/m...111859436.html

That single quote just killed Rubio in this election and might have just handed it all to Obama. People need to understand the significance of the Latino vote in these tight swing states. Conservatives can't fathom the idea of their golden boy okaying immigrants illegally entering. You won't see Rubio on the ticket for sure now and the GOP has lost its chance to appeal to the Latino vote.

Again you're in denial. Mitt is ahead in Flordia where Rubio is from and there
is a heavy latin population there. You've obviously never been down there.

[AirFlacco]

I Take that back, latest Rasmussen poll now has Mitt slightly ahead in Ohio by 1 and give him the momentum for Wisconsin which is tied. While that 1
pt is well within the margin of error, GOP is really excited just to be there at
this point.

Real Clear's latest has OBY ahead in VA by just 1.8-3 pts - again within the
margin of error meaning it's tied but Romney is excited to be there at this point.

I already gave that to OBY but might change my mind as summer goes on. OBY has blown big leads in all these states and not even Galen can
spin that. He over looks all these blown leads - big ones in VA, NC, OHIO.
MICH, COL, FLA.

NOW BRAG, JUST FACT.

http://spectator.org/archives/2012/0...mbers-surprise

[Galen Sevinne]

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/...ground-states/


Growing enthusiasm for DHS shift on DREAMers

Part of this advantage for President Obama appears to be related to his recent announcement to provide relief to undocumented immigrant youth. On June 17, two days after his announcement our Latino Decisions/America’s Voice poll first reported that 49% of Latino voters were now more enthusiastic about Obama, while 14% were less enthusiastic (+35). Over the course of the week, as the DREAMer relief received further attention in the Latino community we found increased support for the announcement. Among all 2,000 survey respondents, now ranging through June 21st, 54% of Latinos are more enthusiastic about Obama compared to 11% who are less enthusiastic (+43). Looking just at the new polling data gathered June 17-21, 58% are now more enthusiastic compared to 9% who are less enthusiastic (+49). Across the key states the enthusiasm for the DHS policy shift follows trends in Obama support. For example, in Arizona and Nevada Latinos showed the most enthusiastic response.

[Galen Sevinne]

Growing enthusiasm for DHS shift on DREAMers

Part of this advantage for President Obama appears to be related to his recent announcement to provide relief to undocumented immigrant youth. On June 17, two days after his announcement our Latino Decisions/America’s Voice poll first reported that 49% of Latino voters were now more enthusiastic about Obama, while 14% were less enthusiastic (+35). Over the course of the week, as the DREAMer relief received further attention in the Latino community we found increased support for the announcement. Among all 2,000 survey respondents, now ranging through June 21st, 54% of Latinos are more enthusiastic about Obama compared to 11% who are less enthusiastic (+43). Looking just at the new polling data gathered June 17-21, 58% are now more enthusiastic compared to 9% who are less enthusiastic (+49). Across the key states the enthusiasm for the DHS policy shift follows trends in Obama support. For example, in Arizona and Nevada Latinos showed the most enthusiastic response.


http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/...ground-states/

[AirFlacco]

Galen - Your own top DEM said it's

coming down to 5 states and those
states arent in the 5.

The are Wisc, NC, OHIO, FLA and Mich.

Mitt is ahead in Oh, Fl and NC and
Rasmussen gives him the momentum
in Wisc.

That's at least 4 of the 5 states for
Mitt.

OBY also blew Colorado which has a large Hispanic population and is leaning to Mitt.

The title of this thread has been proven wrong.