OVER/UNDER 4,000 passing yards for Flacco

**The Excellector** · 05-22-2012, 01:53 PM

The real over/under is 4,000 yards........in dropped passes.

**Ravenswintitle** · 05-22-2012, 01:58 PM

Originally Posted by ballhawk

Haha...just so you know, im not emtionally invested in what flacco's completion % is.

But surely you know that there other factors that go into it besides just the qb.

well this thread is about stats, specifically the 4,000 yds. That's why I'm using his attempts and low completion % to show that the offense would support it if there was a higher completion %. I also made it clear it's not all on Joe, the team had a very high rate of dropped passes but there were a few games with JF was inaccurate as hell too.

I'm not concerned about the 4K yards; I'll take wins any way they can get them. If that means wearing down a team with constant stretch plays, so be it.

**ballhawk** · 05-22-2012, 02:18 PM

Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

well this thread is about stats, specifically the 4,000 yds. That's why I'm using his attempts and low completion % to show that the offense would support it if there was a higher completion %. I also made it clear it's not all on Joe, the team had a very high rate of dropped passes but there were a few games with JF was inaccurate as hell too.

I'm not concerned about the 4K yards; I'll take wins any way they can get them. If that means wearing down a team with constant stretch plays, so be it.

Im with ya on that..

**JustaslowZ06** · 05-22-2012, 02:34 PM

Under. Seriously?

**Haloti92** · 05-22-2012, 02:53 PM

The dropped passes excuse is a bit overplayed. We dropped 31 passes last year, ranking us 7th worst. If we had dropped 6 less (25 total) that would have ranked us in the top 10 best. The extra 6 receptions would have raised Joe's completion percentage like 1%, and using his YPC would have added like 70 yards to his totals. You can argue the drops were longer than the average throws, but Rice's 7 drops might argue against that.

The point is, drops barely scratch the surface explaining the problems with our passing game last year.

**JAB1985** · 05-22-2012, 03:10 PM

Originally Posted by Haloti92

The dropped passes excuse is a bit overplayed. We dropped 31 passes last year, ranking us 7th worst. If we had dropped 6 less (25 total) that would have ranked us in the top 10 best. The extra 6 receptions would have raised Joe's completion percentage like 1%, and using his YPC would have added like 70 yards to his totals. You can argue the drops were longer than the average throws, but Rice's 7 drops might argue against that.

The point is, drops barely scratch the surface explaining the problems with our passing game last year.

thats also going off what one site is calling a drop, which really comes down to opinion of what is or isnt. im not sure there is a standard definition that everyone uses for that particular stat (personally i dont think there can be without context). could be 10 more or 10 less just based on opinion.

the thing about dropped passes are they kill drives and kill momentum and rhythm. QB is a rhythm position and when youre already asked to throw deep balls that arent very high completion percentage passes, its really hurts you more when you cant even dump off to your RB or TE without him dropping it as well. offenses are dependent on getting in synch and those are just things that throw you off as a whole. So yeah, statistically maybe not much different, but its more about what would have been after than on that one particular pass alone.

**wickedsolo** · 05-22-2012, 03:16 PM

Originally Posted by Haloti92

The dropped passes excuse is a bit overplayed. We dropped 31 passes last year, ranking us 7th worst. If we had dropped 6 less (25 total) that would have ranked us in the top 10 best. The extra 6 receptions would have raised Joe's completion percentage like 1%, and using his YPC would have added like 70 yards to his totals. You can argue the drops were longer than the average throws, but Rice's 7 drops might argue against that.

The point is, drops barely scratch the surface explaining the problems with our passing game last year.

I think that the 31 dropped passes number is off. I started keeping a tally just for grins midway through the season and I had noted at least 24 or 25 dropped passes at that point. I guess it depends on what is considered a dropped pass. IMO, a dropped pass is any thrown ball that hits a player in the hands/arms/chest/etc and they don't hang onto it or catch it. There was a stretch of the season where Torrey had like 8 or 9 dropped passes by himself.

I agree with you that dropped passes weren't the biggest issue with the passing game, but they were a problem. You can't really put a value on it, but when a would-be 1st down that is dropped or a would-be TD that is dropped is a total morale killer in the huddle and on the sideline. Speaking from experience, there is nothing worse than being a QB and wondering if you receivers are going to catch the ball or not when you call their number. That shit can drive you crazy.

**Haloti92** · 05-22-2012, 03:18 PM

Originally Posted by JAB1985

thats also going off what one site is calling a drop, which really comes down to opinion of what is or isnt. im not sure there is a standard definition that everyone uses for that particular stat (personally i dont think there can be without context). could be 10 more or 10 less just based on opinion.

the thing about dropped passes are they kill drives and kill momentum and rhythm. QB is a rhythm position and when youre already asked to throw deep balls that arent very high completion percentage passes, its really hurts you more when you cant even dump off to your RB or TE without him dropping it as well. offenses are dependent on getting in synch and those are just things that throw you off as a whole. So yeah, statistically maybe not much different, but its more about what would have been after than on that one particular pass alone.

I agree the stat is subjective but I don't see how that changes anything in terms of the argument.

And as for how a "drop" can kill a drive or affect your offense more than the actual loss of yardage on that single play, I agree, but that is the case for all drops, including the ones made by other teams' receivers. Unless one tries to argue we somehow had special drops (in terms of the situations) that other teams avoided, I don't see how this really changes anything either.

Drops certainly matter, they certainly hurt, they certainly want to be avoided. But I am just saying they do not explain anywhere near the full difference between our results and other teams, nor even the difference between our results in 2011 vs our results in 2010. Other things factored in, and they factored in much more heavily than a half-dozen or so drops.

**mfdoom42** · 05-22-2012, 03:20 PM

I would guess Flacco will be right around 4000, plus or minus 200 yards in either direction. I know last year was a "down" year for him, but last year was also the first time I really felt like I saw him growing into something more than a game-manager. It seemed like he showed great improvement towards the end of the season, especially the playoffs, and I look forward to seeing how that carries over into this coming season. If Torrey Smith can become more than just a home-run threat between his rookie and sophomore campaigns like Mike Wallace did, then Flacco will easily surpass 4000 yards. As long as Torrey shows modest improvement I still think 4000 is within reach given that the pecking order at TE is a bit more defined with Pitta as the guy and Dickson as a playmaking TE; as opposed to last season when they attempted to use him as an every-down, possession TE. At this point, I think Anquan Boldin is what he is, which is a top-notch slot receiver who still has enough athleticism to play on the outsides on 1st & short yardage downs.

At this point last year, we weren't sure who the #2 receiver would be, who our starting TE would be, and how any of our young players would grow or perform. The only wild-card this year is Tandon Doss vs. the field for the #3 receiver position. I think that continuity alone will account for greater success in the passing game.

**wickedsolo** · 05-22-2012, 03:22 PM

Originally Posted by Haloti92

I agree the stat is subjective but I don't see how that changes anything in terms of the argument.

And as for how a "drop" can kill a drive or affect your offense more than the actual loss of yardage on that single play, I agree, but that is the case for all drops, including the ones made by other teams' receivers. Unless one tries to argue we somehow had special drops (in terms of the situations) that other teams avoided, I don't see how this really changes anything either.

Drops certainly matter, they certainly hurt, they certainly want to be avoided. But I am just saying they do not explain anywhere near the full difference between our results and other teams, nor even the difference between our results in 2011 vs our results in 2010. Other things factored in, and they factored in much more heavily than a half-dozen or so drops.

To me the biggest issue is the nature of the route tree in which Cam is asking the receivers to run & combining that with 7 (or more) step drops from Flacco. It's rare that you see Ravens' receivers going for uncontested passes. Schematically, it just doesn't seem that there is a vested interest in attempting to get receivers into open spaces.

The passing game is very mundane and predictable.

**Haloti92** · 05-22-2012, 03:22 PM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

I think that the 31 dropped passes number is off. I started keeping a tally just for grins midway through the season and I had noted at least 24 or 25 dropped passes at that point. I guess it depends on what is considered a dropped pass. IMO, a dropped pass is any thrown ball that hits a player in the hands/arms/chest/etc and they don't hang onto it or catch it. There was a stretch of the season where Torrey had like 8 or 9 dropped passes by himself.

I agree with you that dropped passes weren't the biggest issue with the passing game, but they were a problem. You can't really put a value on it, but when a would-be 1st down that is dropped or a would-be TD that is dropped is a total morale killer in the huddle and on the sideline. Speaking from experience, there is nothing worse than being a QB and wondering if you receivers are going to catch the ball or not when you call their number. That shit can drive you crazy.

It drive me crazy also, and drops are certainly a subjective and unofficial stat (and that makes sense considering what is being judged), but I am not sure that the relative stats would change much if one varied the criteria. Maybe they would. I am certainly not in a position to watch every play of every NFL game to check.

**wickedsolo** · 05-22-2012, 03:27 PM

Originally Posted by Haloti92

It drive me crazy also, and drops are certainly a subjective and unofficial stat (and that makes sense considering what is being judged), but I am not sure that the relative stats would change much if one varied the criteria. Maybe they would. I am certainly not in a position to watch every play of every NFL game to check.

It's kind of like in baseball where the 3rd basemen picks up a grounder, guns it to 1st, and is a bad throw, but the 1st baseman gets the error.

Maybe that's a bad example.

That's why I could never understand why Tandon Doss never got any playing time at all last year except for a few snaps in the last game IIRC. He's not a speedster, but one thing he brings to the table is consistent hands. At least from a collegiate stance. He was considered to have the best/most natural hands out of any receiver in his draft class. Secondly, it was obvious that Pitta was the most consistent receiver last year...yet Dickson always started. I never understood that.