OVER/UNDER 4,000 passing yards for Flacco

**wickedsolo** · 05-21-2012, 01:17 PM

Originally Posted by Jeremiah W

Minus who, Lee Evans?

I like the over because it is going to be mostly the same group as last year. Smith should be better. Boldin had the knee issue last year and I expect if healthy is back to a 1,000 yard kind of guy. So 2k from the top WRs, another 5-700 from Rice. This year I think between the 2 TEs there is another 1,000 or so and to crak 4k, the Ravens just need to get something from the #3 WR spot, where the options should look a lot better than they did last year.

Boldin has been here for 2 seasons now and hasn't cracked 900 yards or 75+ receptions in either year. The problem is Boldin isn't a great fit in the Coryell offense and granted, Torrey will take a lot of that pressure off of him, but Cam is still the one calling the shots and history has shown that Cam runs his offense through the RB and not the receivers.

I'd say Torrey is the only receiver with a legitimate shot to break 1000 yards and that's only because of the nature in which they use him.

Torrey - I'll say somewhere between 55-65 receptions for 900-1000 yards.
Boldin - Maybe 60-70 receptions for 800-900 yards.
Dickson - 40-50 for 500-550 yards.
Pitta - 35-45 for 300-400 yards.
Rice - 60-70 for 500-600 yards.
J. Jones - 25-35 for 300-350 yards.

So, at best you're probably looking at around 3500-3800 yards. Flacco is pretty consistent and has produced the most yards from a QB under Cam.

**Haloti92** · 05-21-2012, 01:19 PM

I think I lean towards over (and obviously barely over, if over).

The easiest way to prevent your QB from getting to 4000 yards as an OC is to simply limit his attempts. This has been the case for Cameron in the past, but not last year. Last year Joe had 542 attempts. What kept our total passing yardage (relatively) down was poor execution, not attempts. We increase our YPA to a decent but still modest 7.38 YPA (ranked 15th last year) from our terrible 6.66 (ranked 24th) of last year and that does the trick.

So as Jeremiah said, I think we can get to 4k passing yards with similarly-called games but better passing execution, which should come with another year under the belts of Smith, Pitta, Dickson, and even Joe.

Plus, I think our schedule will be more challenging and there will be less sitting-on-safe-lead situations and more games where we are throwing right to the end of the contest.

**OC Bob** · 05-21-2012, 01:21 PM

Under

**mdduckman** · 05-21-2012, 01:22 PM

I voted over, just to be optimistic...do I think it CAN happen? Sure...will it happen? Who knows...

**wickedsolo** · 05-21-2012, 01:30 PM

Originally Posted by Haloti92

I think I lean towards over (and obviously barely over, if over).

The easiest way to prevent your QB from getting to 4000 yards as an OC is to simply limit his attempts. This has been the case for Cameron in the past, but not last year. Last Year Joe had 542 attempts. What kept our total passing yardage (realtively) down was poor execution, not attempts. We increase our YPA to a decent but still modest 7.38 YPA (ranked 15th last year) from our terrible 6.66 (ranked 24th) of last year and that does the trick.

So as Jeremiah said, I think we can get to 4k passing yards with similarly-called games but better passing execution, which should come with another year under the belts of Smith, Pitta, Dickson, and even Joe.

Plus, I think our schedule will be more challenging and there will be less sitting-on-safe-lead situations and more games where we are throwing right to the end of the contest.

I dont know man. Mathematically what you're saying makes sense, but I think it has a lot more to do with the nature and philosophy of Cam's offense. Bubble screens, deep routes with a low percentage of success, and RB dump-off's seem to be the name of the game for Cam's version of the Coryell.

Now, if Cam calls games like he did against New England then I could see him going over 4000 yards on the season.

We all know that probably won't happen though.

**Haloti92** · 05-21-2012, 01:37 PM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

I dont know man. Mathematically what you're saying makes sense, but I think it has a lot more to do with the nature and philosophy of Cam's offense. Bubble screens, deep routes with a low percentage of success, and RB dump-off's seem to be the name of the game for Cam's version of the Coryell.

Now, if Cam calls games like he did against New England then I could see him going over 4000 yards on the season.

We all know that probably won't happen though.

I hear you. I am not all that confident, lol. Just leaning that way.

Flacco did average 7.41 per attempt in 2010 under Cam, but his attempts were limited (to 489). This sort of goes along with my point in other threads about how the more you are asked to do the harder it is to keep up the same average success or efficiency. But I still think with the extra year of experience/maturity for our younger players, we can get 2010's YPA and efficiency out of a 2011 level of attempts.

As the record shows, I am no fan of Cam.

Now if we could only fast-forward 3 months and get the show on the road...

**wickedsolo** · 05-21-2012, 01:41 PM

Originally Posted by Haloti92

I hear you. I am not all that confident, lol. Just leaning that way.

Flacco did average 7.41 per attempt in 2010 under Cam, but his attempts were limited (to 489). This sort of goes along with my point in other threads about how the more you are asked to do the harder it is to keep up the same average success or efficiency. But I still think with the extra year of experience/maturity for our younger players, we can get 2010's YPA and efficiency out of a 2011 level of attempts.

As the record shows, I am no fan of Cam.

Now if we could only fast-forward 3 months and get the show on the road...

Word.

The career paths of guys like Rivers and Brees give me hope that Flacco in another offensive system is going to be much better and much more productive than while under Cam.

**JAB1985** · 05-21-2012, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

Word.

The career paths of guys like Rivers and Brees give me hope that Flacco in another offensive system is going to be much better and much more productive than while under Cam.

problem being hes here, under Cam, who doesnt appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.

Bummer.

**wickedsolo** · 05-21-2012, 02:30 PM

Originally Posted by JAB1985

problem being hes here, under Cam, who doesnt appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.

Bummer.

Lots of theories to why that is.

Most probable theory: 1 dropped TD pass away from going to the SB and there were no other coaches that would without a doubt 100% put the Ravens over the hump. Stay the course and get a friggin receiver who can catch the ball. :D

**pslholder96** · 05-21-2012, 02:37 PM

Good arguements on both sides thus far. This really is a crapshoot to be honest. Too many "what ifs" here. The biggest obstacle to 4k is schematic (i.e Cam Cameron) otherwise we are asking Joe to do more with less. A combination of better playcalling and execution will do the trick. Easier said than done of course. Joe, his receivers and Cam all take equal ownership of the success of the passing game.

**ballhawk** · 05-21-2012, 02:41 PM

Over

I think the defense takes a step back this year.. with a brutal schedule (a who's who of the nfl's better offenses) its going to be on flacco and cameron to score more points than in years past. Joe gets 4000+ as a result of playing from behind more frequently.

**JAB1985** · 05-21-2012, 02:44 PM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

Lots of theories to why that is.

Most probable theory: 1 dropped TD pass away from going to the SB and there were no other coaches that would without a doubt 100% put the Ravens over the hump. Stay the course and get a friggin receiver who can catch the ball. :D

Oh i understand why hes here, just sad that he still is. We can with him.