QB sophmore slump

**Section 502 Raven** · 05-18-2012, 11:18 AM

i am hoping for a Dalton sophmore slump. in 2012 the bengals concern me more than the squealers. Joe looks good in this article.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/no-soph...0938--nfl.html

**pslholder96** · 05-18-2012, 11:28 AM

I think we have more concerning things to worry about like the Ravens...just saying...

**ravensnhokies** · 05-18-2012, 11:43 AM

Come on pslholder96, we could say that every time about a story focused on another team. It has Joe Flacco content so worthy IMO.

I just hope that Dalton has a slump the first game, breaks out of it in the middle year for game 7, and their second to last game of the season, but rears its ugly head during Week 17.

**wickedsolo** · 05-18-2012, 11:47 AM

Good article.

**bmorecareful** · 05-18-2012, 11:54 AM

The article is a disaster full of technical errors and bad logic. First of all, his sample was selected poorly. 12 QBs across the past 20 years and I can't really figure out his thresholds for games started, etc. in both year 1 and year 2--clear selection bias as he's eliminated a lot of data that might not swing his way.

He claims to have "analyzed" his data, but he didn't actually, and if he did he would find that some of the QBs' improvements from year to year could be nothing more than variance (I didn't actually run a regression analysis but it's obvious from just eyeballing the data.)

He also has numerous other small factual errors. He puts Carson Palmer in the pool, but Palmer didn't take a single snap in his rookie season, so that data is tainted. Jeff Garcia had already been playing pro football for years when he took his first NFL snaps in 1999, and even then he only started 10 games so that data is also tainted. There are other errors as well.

I'm not even going to go into the stats at this point, but I can tell you simply from watching Bengals games that Dalton was fading fast towards the end of the year. I expect him to regress even worse this year. I'm not concerned about the Bengals at all.

The Steelers are still Public Enemy #1.

**GOTA** · 05-18-2012, 11:56 AM

Dalton suddenly has the making of a pretty good o-line in front of him. The Bengals also added a RB who just never turns the ball over. I don't think they did such a good job on defense so I hope that balances things out but that could be a tough team.

**wickedsolo** · 05-18-2012, 12:00 PM

Originally Posted by bmorecareful

The article is a disaster full of technical errors and bad logic. First of all, his sample was selected poorly. 12 QBs across the past 20 years and I can't really figure out his thresholds for games started, etc. in both year 1 and year 2--clear selection bias as he's eliminated a lot of data that might not swing his way.

He claims to have "analyzed" his data, but he didn't actually, and if he did he would find that some of the QBs' improvements from year to year could be nothing more than variance (I didn't actually run a regression analysis but it's obvious from just eyeballing the data.)

He also has numerous other small factual errors. He puts Carson Palmer in the pool, but Palmer didn't take a single snap in his rookie season, so that data is tainted. Jeff Garcia had already been playing pro football for years when he took his first NFL snaps in 1999, and even then he only started 10 games so that data is also tainted. There are other errors as well.

I'm not even going to go into the stats at this point, but I can tell you simply from watching Bengals games that Dalton was fading fast towards the end of the year. I expect him to regress even worse this year. I'm not concerned about the Bengals at all.

The Steelers are still Public Enemy #1.

He also lost his top target for a couple of games. That definitely added to whatever regression he may have had. It's also well known that a lot of rookies hit that proverbial "wall" because they're not accustomed to playing 16+ games in a season.

The only reason why I could see Dalton regressing a little is because now there is tape on him. Before it was a lot of guess work because teams weren't able to accurately pinpoint how Dalton plays whereas now they've got a full season to work with.

**Justlovemybirds** · 05-18-2012, 12:22 PM

The Bengals don't seem to have addressed the number 2 WR spot with a player that can step in right away and help take the attention away from Green.

**mommathurgoesthatman** · 05-18-2012, 01:05 PM

Im actually looking forward to Dalton this year. I want him to do good and pulling for him. Of course I hope the Ravens crush them when we play them but other than that im excited about Cincy this year. Their offense is good and young.

**alienrace** · 05-18-2012, 01:08 PM

It's a good article. The term was used in baseball, and somehow ermm..around 2009, the term started getting used in football by some knuckleheads who thought Flacco and Ryan would regress.

**alien bird** · 05-18-2012, 01:11 PM

That analysis is based on using a bad data set. For example: If a QB was a starter his rookie year, and then wasn't a starter his 2nd year, the author disregarded the data. I don't know about you, but I think there is a reason those guys lost the starting job. That would be a slump.