Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

[bmorecareful]

:word

I like Ray Rice a lot as well, but I think the Ravens are ready and willing to either sign him to a Foster/McCoy deal or move on from him. Everyone is replaceable. I would take a similar stand with Flacco, although QBs are harder to find. The Ravens are not going to overpay and screw their cap up for years to come, nor should they.

And this is the entire discussion in a nutshell. I'm confused as to why some of the more foam-at-the-mouth type posters on here think we don't like Rice for some reason. The reality is that as you say, everyone is replaceable, and it's not about Rice personally (or anyone else personally.) It would be HARD to replace Rice, it would be HARDER STILL to replace Flacco, but the team has to come first. No one player can hold a team hostage. When they try to, you do what the Bengals did with Palmer last year (I know his holdout was for different reasons.) You find your replacement and you move on as best you can.

If Rice wants AP money, he's not going to get it and the team is better off without him than with him. If Flacco wants Manning/Brady/Brees money, he's not going to get it and the team is better off without him than with him. I'm sorry, but you have to play hardball with these guys sometimes because you know they're going to play hardball back.

Not to go off on a tangent here, but in so many areas of life anymore you're seeing the term "compromise" redefined to mean "you do what I want." There was an article in the news recently about a newly elected politician foaming at the mouth about what he's gonna do when he gets to Washington... and he came right out and said "sure, we'll compromise, but compromise means they agree to what we want!" You don't get far in society with that kind of perspective, whether it's business, politics, or whatever. But that seems like where we're headed.

[Haloti92]

Here's a blog I wrote a few months ago comparing Rice and Foster and kind of outlining the overall worth if you consider Arian Foster to be the best RB in the NFL currently (as I do).

http://profootballxo.blogspot.com/20...ice-worth.html

I only compared the last 2 years because Foster has really only been a starter/consistent contributor for the past 2 seasons. If hacks like Jamison Hensley did some research they'd know that too and wouldn't look like a moron.

Foster played all 16 games in 2010. In fact he had more than 13 touches in every game but one, where he had exactly 13. Rice has had 4 games with 13 or less touches over the two years.

Foster has missed 3 games over two years (3 games in 2011), not 6, imo to be fair. And those 3 were missed because he got injured. It is easy to argue that when you give him so many touches per game (too many touches), he will miss games or time (unlike Rice over the past 2 years). In which case you can't just extrapolate what he would have done had he gotten the same high number of per-game touches for all the games. In short, I think one could argue there is sort of a maximum number of touches or rate of touches that can be achieved, too many or too fast will likely lead to the need for a rest (minor injury).


Also, and this actually bolsters your main point, but I thought I would point it out for your blog. You say the scoring percentage of each is calculated using "total offensive points," but it looks like your denominator used total team points (including D and STs). Over the last two years the Ravens have scored 9 D/ST TDs to Houston's 3. The denominators that should be used are 672 for the Ravens and 750 for Houston. In addition, Rice threw for 1 TD, and his total should be 22 TDs. And lastly, you only gave Foster 6 pts per TD, whereas you gave Rice 7, which hurts Foster a lot. Here is what I get when using offensive team points, 7 pts per TD for player, and adjusting the other stuff:

Rice 22 TDs, 154 pts of team's 672 pts = 22.91% of teams offensive points.
Foster 30 TDs, 210 pts of team's 750 pts = 28.00% of teams offensive points.

The main "knock" I have about Foster when looking at his stats is that Tate absolutely crushed it as well, and did so on extremely statistically significant number of touches (188 total, 175 rushes). He was similarly efficient as Foster. There are generally two ways to explain this, 1) their system is such that all RBs look better than they are (or would on another team) while in it, a la the Denver Broncos with TD, Gary, Anderson, Portis, etc, and/or 2) Tate is actually a top notch NFL RB trapped behind another top notch RB. Either or both could be true. I think it is a combination of both, but regardless, I think it takes a bit of luster off of Foster's statistical accomplishments (not much, but a little).

[bmorecareful]

Foster played all 16 games in 2010. In fact he had more than 13 touches in every game but one, where he had exactly 13. Rice has had 4 games with 13 or less touches over the two years.

Foster has missed 3 games over two years (3 games in 2011), not 6, imo to be fair. And those 3 were missed because he got injured. It is easy to argue that when you give him so many touches per game (too many touches), he will miss games or time (unlike Rice over the past 2 years). In which case you can't just extrapolate what he would have done had he gotten the same high number of per-game touches for all the games. In short, I think one could argue there is sort of a maximum number of touches or rate of touches that can be achieved, too many or too fast will likely lead to the need for a rest (minor injury).


Also, and this actually bolsters your main point, but I thought I would point it out for your blog. You say the scoring percentage of each is calculated using "total offensive points," but it looks like your denominator used total team points (including D and STs). Over the last two years the Ravens have scored 9 D/ST TDs to Houston's 3. The denominators that should be used are 672 for the Ravens and 750 for Houston. In addition, Rice threw for 1 TD, and his total should be 22 TDs. And lastly, you only gave Foster 6 pts per TD, whereas you gave Rice 7, which hurts Foster a lot. Here is what I get when using offensive team points, 7 pts per TD for player, and adjusting the other stuff:

Rice 22 TDs, 154 pts of team's 672 pts = 22.91% of teams offensive points.
Foster 30 TDs, 210 pts of team's 750 pts = 28.00% of teams offensive points.

The main "knock" I have about Foster when looking at his stats is that Tate absolutely crushed it as well, and did so on extremely statistically significant number of touches (188 total, 175 rushes). He was similarly efficient as Foster. There are generally two ways to explain this, 1) their system is such that all RBs look better than they are (or would on another team) while in it, a la the Denver Broncos with TD, Gary, Anderson, Portis, etc, and/or 2) Tate is actually a top notch NFL RB trapped behind another top notch RB. Either or both could be true. I think it is a combination of both, but regardless, I think it takes a bit of luster off of Foster's statistical accomplishments (not much, but a little).

Your's is a quality post. There are obviously many layers to peel back in this debate and bringing the discussion down to the level of touches gets you the closest to what we're actually trying to measure--on-field ability.

Regarding Ben Tate vs. Foster, I haven't watched every snap Tate has ever played, but he certainly grades out to my eyes as an extremely capable back. I have read in many credible sources (Rotoworld, Pro Football Weekly, etc.) that talent evaluators in the league/close to the league believe Tate is as good a back as Foster or possibly better, FWIW.

I don't think anyone would argue that Houston is anything but a great environment for RB success. Then again, we run the same blocking scheme as the Texans, so could one make the argument that Rice had his best year under a system that made him look better than he is? I would not make that argument personally because my eyes tell me differently, but causality is a very difficult thing to prove one way or another.

[GOTA]

:word

I like Ray Rice a lot as well, but I think the Ravens are ready and willing to either sign him to a Foster/McCoy deal or move on from him. Everyone is replaceable. I would take a similar stand with Flacco, although QBs are harder to find. The Ravens are not going to overpay and screw their cap up for years to come, nor should they.

We all know that's how Ozzie is looking at it too.

[mommathurgoesthatman]

We all know that's how Ozzie is looking at it too.

Ozzie is in a tough spot. We need Flacco and Rice to even have a respectable offense. Flacco hasnt prove he can carry a team thru the season so is he a franchise QB? We saw flashes here and there but no consistency. Can we depend on Flacco for the next 4-5 years to carry the Ravens? If Ozzie doesnt think so he may want to keep Ray Rice because without Rice our offense will become Flat. Rice has the ability to make plays and pick up first downs for us. Money is going to be a big factor in determing what Ozzie would do.

Flacco has to prove he can carry this team this year if not we cant afford to let Rice walk. I guarantee you take Rice out the line up Flacco numbers will drop.

[Dirt1]

Ozzie is in a tough spot. We need Flacco and Rice to even have a respectable offense. Flacco hasnt prove he can carry a team thru the season so is he a franchise QB? We saw flashes here and there but no consistency. Can we depend on Flacco for the next 4-5 years to carry the Ravens? If Ozzie doesnt think so he may want to keep Ray Rice because without Rice our offense will become Flat. Rice has the ability to make plays and pick up first downs for us. Money is going to be a big factor in determing what Ozzie would do.

Flacco has to prove he can carry this team this year if not we cant afford to let Rice walk. I guarantee you take Rice out the line up Flacco numbers will drop.

That also depends on how confident Ozzie is in his and his scouts' ability to find a replacement for Ray Rice. Rice was a second round pick. He is a very good RB, but I think Ozzie feels that he can find someone else could could do a credible job if he had to. The preference is of course to sign Ray Rice long-term, but I don't think that the Ravens offense will be crippled if Rice were to leave.

[mfdoom42]

"Much" better? Wow ok.

Do you watch Eagles games at all? Again, I love Ray Rice and want him in Baltimore on a long-term contract, but LeSean McCoy is a more explosive and powerful rusher who is more consistent at gaining solid yardage up the middle. Rice is a better receiver and breaks off more big plays, but McCoy is a better overall rusher and blocker while also being adequate as a receiving threat.

[GOTA]

Ozzie is in a tough spot. We need Flacco and Rice to even have a respectable offense. Flacco hasnt prove he can carry a team thru the season so is he a franchise QB? We saw flashes here and there but no consistency. Can we depend on Flacco for the next 4-5 years to carry the Ravens? If Ozzie doesnt think so he may want to keep Ray Rice because without Rice our offense will become Flat. Rice has the ability to make plays and pick up first downs for us. Money is going to be a big factor in determing what Ozzie would do.

Flacco has to prove he can carry this team this year if not we cant afford to let Rice walk. I guarantee you take Rice out the line up Flacco numbers will drop.

I don't disagree with you about Flacco but he is going to be here the next 5 years. That's a lock. Flacco doesn't have to prove anything at this point to get his deal done. Hopefully if Rice does walk next season Cam goes with him and they hire someone who knows how to move an offense without putting everything through 1 running back.

[leachisabeast]

Do you watch Eagles games at all? Again, I love Ray Rice and want him in Baltimore on a long-term contract, but LeSean McCoy is a more explosive and powerful rusher who is more consistent at gaining solid yardage up the middle. Rice is a better receiver and breaks off more big plays, but McCoy is a better overall rusher and blocker while also being adequate as a receiving threat.

Yeah I do watch Eagles games, but I just think Rice is a better overall back.

[mommathurgoesthatman]

That also depends on how confident Ozzie is in his and his scouts' ability to find a replacement for Ray Rice. Rice was a second round pick. He is a very good RB, but I think Ozzie feels that he can find someone else could could do a credible job if he had to. The preference is of course to sign Ray Rice long-term, but I don't think that the Ravens offense will be crippled if Rice were to leave.

I would agree with you if Cam Cameron wasnt our OC. His scheme is so black and white. Ray Rice is the only play maker we have on our offense. This is why he is our offense. Joe and the WR's and TE's are all under the control of Cam play calling. Im afraid to see what we would look like withouth Ray Rice. I was scared for our offense when Ray Rice miss games his rookie season when he got hurt because of his playmaking skills.

[mommathurgoesthatman]

I don't disagree with you about Flacco but he is going to be here the next 5 years. That's a lock. Flacco doesn't have to prove anything at this point to get his deal done. Hopefully if Rice does walk next season Cam goes with him and they hire someone who knows how to move an offense without putting everything through 1 running back.

Agreed but seriously if Flacco is a lock to be our franchise QB than why did Cam stick around another year? I know for a fact Cam will not be here for the next 5 years(I hope) so why keep wasting time with him? That tells you a lot about who is calling the shots.

[HoustonRaven]

I would agree with you if Cam Cameron wasnt our OC. His scheme is so black and white. Ray Rice is the only play maker we have on our offense. This is why he is our offense. Joe and the WR's and TE's are all under the control of Cam play calling. Im afraid to see what we would look like withouth Ray Rice. I was scared for our offense when Ray Rice miss games his rookie season when he got hurt because of his playmaking skills.

We went 4 for 5 while he was out, including two playoff wins.