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  1. #16

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray



    I think we need to temper the enthusiasm a little bit on Streeter. I get all the steal, great value, how did this guy go in the the 6th round stuff but he was drafted there for a reason.

    Here is one of them...

    http://ravens24x7.com/columns/Camp-N...okie-mini-camp
    At one point, Streeter ran a bad route and it was jumped by rookie free-agent cornerback Charles Brown from North Carolina. Shortly after Brown’s interception, Streeter left the field and headed to the locker room.

    Streeter later told the media he had been dealing with a stomach virus since Saturday night and wasn’t feeling well.
    I just completed some research and from 1995-2009 68% of receivers drafted in the 6th round never caught more than 10 passes in their entire NFL career, and the bust rate was 86% overall. The guys that did make it never amounted to anything more than a number 3 receiver except for one guy (Pierre Garcon, out of 75 total).

    If Streeter can make the team and stick around it will be an accomplishment, everything else will be a bonus.




  2. #17
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    I think we need to temper the enthusiasm a little bit on Streeter. I get all the steal, great value, how did this guy go in the the 6th round stuff but he was drafted there for a reason.

    Here is one of them...

    http://ravens24x7.com/columns/Camp-N...okie-mini-camp


    I just completed some research and from 1995-2009 68% of receivers drafted in the 6th round never caught more than 10 passes in their entire NFL career, and the bust rate was 86% overall. The guys that did make it never amounted to anything more than a number 3 receiver except for one guy (Pierre Garcon, out of 75 total).

    If Streeter can make the team and stick around it will be an accomplishment, everything else will be a bonus.
    Wasn't Antonio Brown a 6th round pick? Streeter has to work on his route running. That is part of him being raw. But what he has (6'5", 220 lbs, 4.4 speed) can't be taught. I actually wish he were also working out with Mason. Mason never had the great size/speed, but he made up for it by being a great route runner. I think Streeter is going to make it.




  3. #18

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by Dirt1 View Post
    Wasn't Antonio Brown a 6th round pick? Streeter has to work on his route running. That is part of him being raw. But what he has (6'5", 220 lbs, 4.4 speed) can't be taught. I actually wish he were also working out with Mason. Mason never had the great size/speed, but he made up for it by being a great route runner. I think Streeter is going to make it.
    Antonio Brown was drafted in 2010 (I only went to 2009, tough to judge a guy after 2 years especially late rounders), but yes he was a 6th rounder. That would be 2 guys in a 16 year span. Two. Out of close to 100.




  4. #19
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    I think we need to temper the enthusiasm a little bit on Streeter. I get all the steal, great value, how did this guy go in the the 6th round stuff but he was drafted there for a reason.

    Here is one of them...

    http://ravens24x7.com/columns/Camp-N...okie-mini-camp


    I just completed some research and from 1995-2009 68% of receivers drafted in the 6th round never caught more than 10 passes in their entire NFL career, and the bust rate was 86% overall. The guys that did make it never amounted to anything more than a number 3 receiver except for one guy (Pierre Garcon, out of 75 total).

    If Streeter can make the team and stick around it will be an accomplishment, everything else will be a bonus.
    I agree. You really have to look at productivity from the bottom of the draft as a bonus. It just happen that often.
    He Who Dares.....Wins




  5. #20

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    I think we need to temper the enthusiasm a little bit on Streeter. I get all the steal, great value, how did this guy go in the the 6th round stuff but he was drafted there for a reason.

    Here is one of them...

    http://ravens24x7.com/columns/Camp-N...okie-mini-camp


    I just completed some research and from 1995-2009 68% of receivers drafted in the 6th round never caught more than 10 passes in their entire NFL career, and the bust rate was 86% overall. The guys that did make it never amounted to anything more than a number 3 receiver except for one guy (Pierre Garcon, out of 75 total).

    If Streeter can make the team and stick around it will be an accomplishment, everything else will be a bonus.
    not knocking your findings as they certainly make sense, but how many of those guys had those measurables? Guys that do dont fall that far typically, which is the really odd thing about getting him that late. Doesnt mean hes going to be a star, but he certainly has the tools to do so like a 2nd round pick (which he was projected as possibly being) would rather than an ordinary 6th rounder. Theres reason to think hes closer to that 14% success rate than 86% bust rate if only because of that. whether that dilutes your expectations or not, is to each their own.
    -JAB




  6. #21
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    Agreed. He needs to be coaching in Baltimore.
    HARBs will get his ass killed if he doesn't offer Ray a job when he retires. It's up to
    Ray but I've never heard him say one way or another what his future plans are. He's
    just a natural coach and is doing it now and has been.

    BTW, I originally posted on the draft thread that Streeter was just a project and wouldnt
    even play this year since he only played 1 year in college. Like you said Solo, he
    would have been a #2 pick had he gone back to Miami.

    After reading this thread and article, me thinks Streeter will make the team and
    perhaps play some with Ray coaching him up.




  7. #22
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    I think we need to temper the enthusiasm a little bit on Streeter. I get all the steal, great value, how did this guy go in the the 6th round stuff but he was drafted there for a reason.

    Here is one of them...

    http://ravens24x7.com/columns/Camp-N...okie-mini-camp


    I just completed some research and from 1995-2009 68% of receivers drafted in the 6th round never caught more than 10 passes in their entire NFL career, and the bust rate was 86% overall. The guys that did make it never amounted to anything more than a number 3 receiver except for one guy (Pierre Garcon, out of 75 total).

    If Streeter can make the team and stick around it will be an accomplishment, everything else will be a bonus.
    Wouldn't you also want to include 7th round picks, just for the sake of completeness, since a 7th round pick should theoretically have even less likelihood of working out than a 6th? Marques Colston was a 7th round pick. So it isn't unprecedented for a late-round pick to turn into gold. It's OBVIOUSLY not common, because that's the nature of players dropping low in the draft. But I think it's fair for a lot of Ravens fans to be excited about the idea that Streeter could be a Colston or Garcon or many of us would even be happy with an Antonio Brown like payoff out of him.




  8. #23
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by AirFlacco View Post
    HARBs will get his ass killed if he doesn't offer Ray a job when he retires. It's up to
    Ray but I've never heard him say one way or another what his future plans are. He's
    just a natural coach and is doing it now and has been.

    BTW, I originally posted on the draft thread that Streeter was just a project and wouldnt
    even play this year since he only played 1 year in college. Like you said Solo, he
    would have been a #2 pick had he gone back to Miami.

    After reading this thread and article, me thinks Streeter will make the team and
    perhaps play some with Ray coaching him up.
    If I was the NFL I would offer Ray a very nice job once he retires. Ray and Peyton Manning are probably the most connected active players in the league. Players from all teams speak with them all the time. Ray would be the perfect liaison between the NFL and the players. Goodell should make it mandatory that any player who violates the conduct policy has to meet and consult with Ray. That would cure a lot of potential repeat offenders.
    He Who Dares.....Wins




  9. #24
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    I think we need to temper the enthusiasm a little bit on Streeter. I get all the steal, great value, how did this guy go in the the 6th round stuff but he was drafted there for a reason.

    Here is one of them...

    http://ravens24x7.com/columns/Camp-N...okie-mini-camp


    I just completed some research and from 1995-2009 68% of receivers drafted in the 6th round never caught more than 10 passes in their entire NFL career, and the bust rate was 86% overall. The guys that did make it never amounted to anything more than a number 3 receiver except for one guy (Pierre Garcon, out of 75 total).

    If Streeter can make the team and stick around it will be an accomplishment, everything else will be a bonus.
    Doing a little more specific research (I plan to run more cases than just this, which I will post in the near future), I looked at 1998-2011, wide receivers, drafted in the 6th or 7th round, played college football in ACC (the conference that Streeter played in).

    The results are much more favorable for this specific search. In fact, there is literally only ONE player who qualifies for this search drafted in the 6th round:

    Josh Morgan (Virginia Tech), San Francisco 49ers, 2008-2011, 49 games (32 starts), 131 catches, 1764 yards, 9 TDs

    He had a decent rookie season, a great second and third season, and was off to a great start last year before being put on injured reserve for the rest of the season after 5 games.

    6 other players qualified for my search, from the 7th round. Of them, half contributed at least 1000 receiving yards during their pro careers.

    http://www.pro-football-reference.co...e=acc&show=all

    So the results aren't nearly as dismal for ACC receivers drafted late.




  10. #25

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by callahan09 View Post
    Doing a little more specific research (I plan to run more cases than just this, which I will post in the near future), I looked at 1998-2011, wide receivers, drafted in the 6th or 7th round, played college football in ACC (the conference that Streeter played in).

    The results are much more favorable for this specific search. In fact, there is literally only ONE player who qualifies for this search drafted in the 6th round:

    Josh Morgan (Virginia Tech), San Francisco 49ers, 2008-2011, 49 games (32 starts), 131 catches, 1764 yards, 9 TDs

    He had a decent rookie season, a great second and third season, and was off to a great start last year before being put on injured reserve for the rest of the season after 5 games.

    6 other players qualified for my search, from the 7th round. Of them, half contributed at least 1000 receiving yards during their pro careers.

    http://www.pro-football-reference.co...e=acc&show=all

    So the results aren't nearly as dismal for ACC receivers drafted late.
    1. I researched every round from 1st to the 7th. The 7th round bust rate is 89%, while there were more high ceiling success stories(relatively speaking) they are again few and far between.

    2. It is pointless to go past 2009, and even 2009 is pushing it. It skews the numbers because you are flat out guessing on a portion of the data. You can't get a read on a guy who was just drafted in the late rounds after a year...or two....and it is tough even after 3 in some cases and you need to "project" a little bit.

    3. If you want to combine the 6th and 7th rounds, there were 173 players total, and 10 went on to become anything more than a number 3. There were 3 number 1's (all in the 7th round, 2 of them drafted a long time ago), 2 number 2's, and 5 number 3's as I graded them.

    82 of the 173 (47.4%)never caught an NFL pass.

    123 of the 173 (71.1%) never caught more than 10 passes.

    The Bust Rate (153 out of 173) was 88.4%




  11. #26
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    I'm not completely buying the "Ray's coaching him up so he'll make it" angle with Streeter. Sure, Ray Lewis can motivate players; working out with Ray can get one into shape; having a guy like Ray around may certainly help a player avoid the off-field traps into which rookies fall. Ultimately, however, Streeter is going to be judged on whether or not he learns the playbook, runs crisp routes, gets separation and can catch. Ray Lewis is a lot of things, but he isn't a WR coach.




  12. #27

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    He looked quick in the tapes I saw.....with a WR you have to look at the QB. Who knows? If he bulks up a little bit, with Torrey on the other side he is going to get some space to wok in. Its a territorial game...
    Way Down South in New Orleans




  13. #28

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    not knocking your findings as they certainly make sense, but how many of those guys had those measurables? Guys that do dont fall that far typically, which is the really odd thing about getting him that late. Doesnt mean hes going to be a star, but he certainly has the tools to do so like a 2nd round pick (which he was projected as possibly being) would rather than an ordinary 6th rounder. Theres reason to think hes closer to that 14% success rate than 86% bust rate if only because of that. whether that dilutes your expectations or not, is to each their own.
    Lots of guys have those measurables, but are very raw which is why they are late round picks. Again, they are taken in the the late rounds for a reason, because there is a very small chance that they will make it. And it seems that NFL GM's know what they are doing in scouting with those low success rates.

    Size and speed is only a small portion of what it takes to be a successful WR in the NFL either way. Running precise routes, catching the ball, making route adjustments at the line, and beating press coverage are just as important. Players are graded on all of these things, not just how big and how fast they are.

    I hope Streeter is one of the 14%, but I have to look at the reality of what most late round round picks are and what they amount to which isn't much historically speaking.




  14. #29
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    1. I researched every round from 1st to the 7th. The 7th round bust rate is 89%, while there were more high ceiling success stories(relatively speaking) they are again few and far between.

    2. It is pointless to go past 2009, and even 2009 is pushing it. It skews the numbers because you are flat out guessing on a portion of the data. You can't get a read on a guy who was just drafted in the late rounds after a year...or two....and it is tough even after 3 in some cases and you need to "project" a little bit.

    3. If you want to combine the 6th and 7th rounds, there were 173 players total, and 10 went on to become anything more than a number 3. There were 3 number 1's (all in the 7th round, 2 of them drafted a long time ago), 2 number 2's, and 5 number 3's as I graded them.

    82 of the 173 (47.4%)never caught an NFL pass.

    123 of the 173 (71.1%) never caught more than 10 passes.

    The Bust Rate (153 out of 173) was 88.4%
    Another bit of research I've done...

    Tommy Streeter is a tall, fast receiver who played in the ACC. Here are his measurables:

    Draft Season, Name, Height, Weight, 40/Low/High, Vertical, Broad
    2012, Tommy Streeter, 6-5, 219, 4.40/4.30/4.54, 33, 10-05

    Since 2000, only 10 other receivers have been drafted in the 6th round or later who were at least 6'4". Only 2 of them were at least 6'5". Here are the measurables for those 10 players:

    2011, David Ausberry, 6-4, 243, 4.52/4.47/4.59, -, -
    2009, Marko Mitchell, 6-4, 218, 4.43/4.36/4.54, 32, 9-08
    2008, Marcus Henry, 6-4, 212, 4.55/4.46/4.64, 31.5, 10-06
    2008, Chaz Schilens, 6-4, 208, 4.38/4.36/4.48, -, -
    2008, Mario Urrutia, 6-6, 232, 4.59/4.52/4.67, 30, 9-07
    2008, Marcus Monk, 6-4, 222, 4.56/4.50/4.64, 34.5, 9-11
    2007, Jordan Kent, 6-4, 217, 4.49/4.42/4.55, -, -
    2006, Marques Colston 6-4, 225, 4.50/-/-, 37, 10-03
    2004, Clarence Moore, 6-6, 220, 4.55/-/-, 34, 10-02
    2003, Walter Young, 6-4, 214, 4.54/-/-, 39, 10-01

    The two players who could compete with Streeter on size alone, Clarence Moore and Mario Urrutia, were both significantly slower. Streeter's low 40-time was more than 2 whole tenths of a second faster than Urrutia's fastest, and his jumping ability is much better as well.

    All but 2 of these players are significantly worse than Streeter in the speed department.

    Marko Mitchell is only slightly slower and shorter than Streeter, but he played college ball in the Mountain West conference, which since 2001 has only produced 11 drafted wide receivers, only 1 of whom (Steve Smith) has ever actually produced significantly in the NFL, so it's not exactly a conference you expect players to come out of with NFL skills.

    The other is Chaz Schilens, who ironically enough also played in the Mountain West, and he's having the best career so far of any receiver to come from that conference since Steve Smith.

    Streeter, on the other hand, played in the ACC, which has produced 27 drafted receivers since 2001, including Anquan Boldin, Jerricho Cotchery, and Calvin Johnson. 11 of the 27 had at least 100 catches and 1000 yards. That's a 41% rate, versus the 1 out of 11 in the Mountain West (9%).

    So what I'm saying is, a player like Streeter, who has 6'5" size and 4.40 speed, is extremely rare to be drafted in the 6th round or later. It has literally never happened. You have to look at 6'4" players to find some history of that kind of speed ever being drafted this late. And as you can see from my list above, even that is extremely rare. But to have that size and that speed, AND to be a player who played in a conference with a history of feeding the NFL with a high quantity and percentage of very productive players, is truly unprecedented.

    So while you may point out the low success rate of late-drafted receivers, I would point out that receivers of Streeter's caliber have simply never been drafted this low before.




  15. #30

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    Lots of guys have those measurables, but are very raw which is why they are late round picks. Again, they are taken in the the late rounds for a reason, because there is a very small chance that they will make it. And it seems that NFL GM's know what they are doing in scouting with those low success rates.

    Size and speed is only a small portion of what it takes to be a successful WR in the NFL either way. Running precise routes, catching the ball, making route adjustments at the line, and beating press coverage are just as important. Players are graded on all of these things, not just how big and how fast they are.

    I hope Streeter is one of the 14%, but I have to look at the reality of what most late round round picks are and what they amount to which isn't much historically speaking.
    I realize there is more to it than speed/size, id be one of the first to tell you as such, but a raw prospect that isnt so good at such things, can rely on those physical abilities until they do, or dont, learn the finer parts of the position. in other words giving them more of a chance. i disagree with you on the rarity of 6'4+ with 4.3 speed. There isnt many of those guys and they arent usually available late in the draft, even raw ones. Brandon Marshall, TO, even DHB all were extremely raw guys that had that height and speed but all went 3rd round or higher despite it. thats also not taking into account the ones that are drafted early and dont succeed either, which maybe streeter, hill, & quick will or would have fallen under, but my point that they arent typically available late in the draft i believe remains.

    Quote Originally Posted by callahan09 View Post
    So while you may point out the low success rate of late-drafted receivers, I would point out that receivers of Streeter's caliber have simply never been drafted this low before.
    thats what im trying to say, although i would define it as "physical ability" rather than "caliber of WR".. he is raw as a WR, even if he does have the tools to be good.

    Believe your list is missing some though, including our own Justin Harper... 6'4 and ran a 4.58 40.
    Last edited by JAB1985; 05-15-2012 at 02:17 PM.
    -JAB




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