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  1. #13
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    Re: BACKLASH POLL: Mitt 7 pt lead



    Quote Originally Posted by AirFlacco View Post
    Here's a real clear electoral map giving OBY a 250-170 pt lead but it has
    Fla, NC, Va as toss up states. We're saying Mitt will get those states. Ohio
    is even now and they have it as a toss up with 18 pts.

    So that map is not entirely right and those states would pull Mitt almost
    even plus the rest of the toss ups. Ohio has been an economically depressed state and Mitt beat Santorum in Ohio focusing on jobs while he spoke on social issues. Mitt will continue to hit on jobs and win Ohio as well. He probably won't get his own state of Michigan which always goes Dem.
    There are still red counties in eastern Ohio that will vote GOP and some on
    the southwestern side of the state as well. The big cities like our pals
    in Cinci and Cleve will go DEM as usual where are the unions are.


    Then there are the Western states they have as toss up and I disagree with
    some of those blue states. We'll see.

    As OBY keeps tanking and doing stupid stuff Mitt will win all those states.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html
    Its six months until the only poll that really matters occurs. You can't say anyone will win any of those swing states with any bit of certainty right now. What you can say is how important the hispanic vote will be expecially out west. It is quite possible that for the first time ever a Republican candidate could win Ohio and lose the election because of the hispanic vote. If you follow folks who are focusing on electoral math, they mostly agree that Obama has more paths to 270 than Romney. It is going to be a tight squeeze for Romney and there isn't much of a potential for him to have an easy win like what you saw with Obama in 2008. Likewise, Obama will won't perform like he did in 2008 but he has the electoral math in his favor and that probably won't change much which puts Romney in a position where he is going to have to run a damn near flawless campaign. Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, Gibbs et al are not only a very formidable team but they have four years of experience.

    Another site to watch other than the electoral maps is Intrade which has a decent history of reflecting election outcomes. Political savvy people can bet their real money on elections. I like it because it is a different spin on polls. People who go to this site to bet on politics mostl likely, in aggregate, are knowlegeable about trends and outcomes. It isn't a slam dunk by any means but i think it adds a good additional number to electoral maps and aggregate national polls. As it stands now, the political gamblers have Obama at a 60% chance of winning and Romney at a 36% chance at winning. Personally, I have been looking at Obama at about a 60% chance myself for a while now. In 2008, Obama was at about 65% to McCains 35% on Intrade.

    http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/co...tractId=743474








  2. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne View Post
    Its six months until the only poll that really matters occurs. You can't say anyone will win any of those swing states with any bit of certainty right now.
    Funny how that wasn't what you were saying a couple weeks ago when Obama was leading in some of those polls. All of a sudden as people are waking up to the election after tuning oit the primaries, Romney is picking up steam and leading in some swing state polls and now all of a sudden the tune changes.

    After a while, America calls BS on the press, and the President's bogus claims and Romney will pull ahead and win this election.
    Hopenchange only fooled people in 2008. It's not going to do it again.

    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2




  3. #15
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    Re: BACKLASH POLL: Mitt 7 pt lead

    Quote Originally Posted by StingerNLG View Post
    Funny how that wasn't what you were saying a couple weeks ago when Obama was leading in some of those polls. All of a sudden as people are waking up to the election after tuning oit the primaries, Romney is picking up steam and leading in some swing state polls and now all of a sudden the tune changes.

    After a while, America calls BS on the press, and the President's bogus claims and Romney will pull ahead and win this election.
    Hopenchange only fooled people in 2008. It's not going to do it again.

    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2
    Not sure what you are talking about here. Obama is still leading the aggregate national polls on RCP 47.7-45.4 and TPM 46.5-44.8. Obama is up in electoral numbers on conservative leaning RCP 253-170. Intrade has Obama at 60% chance of winning. Obama is fine; its Romney, quite like McCain that is in need of something in the next 6 months to swing this in his favor.

    More importantly, it has been Obama out front in the news cycle and Romney trying to keep up. I don't understand anything about Romney's campaign and what they are trying to do to make an impression. Outside of his successful business experience, he has little to offer in way of a campaign impression. Meanwhile, Obama has been out front with the important female vote, important hispanic vote and now marriage equality. Romney hasn't been able to get out in front of the news really at all.

    Fpr example, even with this marriage equality talk which you all think is a gauranteed losing message for Obama, Romney is defending (or trying to defend) pinning some gay kid down in high school and cutting off his hair. Truthfully, I believe Romney probably has changed and he isn't such a dick today as he was then but as long as he keeps getting put into positions like that, he will will never get out in front of a message. These are the subtle weekly flows of a campaign that is only showing right now the much more effective campaign team behind obama. Romney's team better figure out a way to control a couple news cycles here soon or else Team Obama will define Romney, who really has little definition right now, for himself and you can bet that definition will not be nice.

    My point of my comments in this thread is that you guys are all hyped up over one conservative leaning Rassmussen poll and comments by a guy in Dick Morris who is lucky to get a seat on O'Reilly sitting next to Dennis Miller.








  4. #16
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    Re: BACKLASH POLL: Mitt 7 pt lead

    Quote Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne View Post
    Not sure what you are talking about here. Obama is still leading the aggregate national polls on RCP 47.7-45.4 and TPM 46.5-44.8. Obama is up in electoral numbers on conservative leaning RCP 253-170. Intrade has Obama at 60% chance of winning. Obama is fine; its Romney, quite like McCain that is in need of something in the next 6 months to swing this in his favor.
    He is talking about individual polls, not averages of polls, some a month old and some used in those averages are from PPP who as mentioned before had Democrats keeping the House in '10

    Quote Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne View Post
    More importantly, it has been Obama out front in the news cycle and Romney trying to keep up. I don't understand anything about Romney's campaign and what they are trying to do to make an impression. Outside of his successful business experience, he has little to offer in way of a campaign impression. Meanwhile, Obama has been out front with the important female vote, important hispanic vote and now marriage equality. Romney hasn't been able to get out in front of the news really at all.
    This doesn't mean anything from someone who gets his news from MSNBS ... err I mean media matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne View Post
    Fpr example, even with this marriage equality talk which you all think is a gauranteed losing message for Obama, Romney is defending (or trying to defend) pinning some gay kid down in high school and cutting off his hair. Truthfully, I believe Romney probably has changed and he isn't such a dick today as he was then but as long as he keeps getting put into positions like that, he will will never get out in front of a message. These are the subtle weekly flows of a campaign that is only showing right now the much more effective campaign team behind obama. Romney's team better figure out a way to control a couple news cycles here soon or else Team Obama will define Romney, who really has little definition right now, for himself and you can bet that definition will not be nice.
    Romney is well-known for being a prankster but even still, some of the people that were used in the very timely story about Romney bullying a "presumed" gay man weren't there or didn't now about it. And the family of the guy dispute the story

    Quote Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne View Post
    My point of my comments in this thread is that you guys are all hyped up over one conservative leaning Rassmussen poll and comments by a guy in Dick Morris who is lucky to get a seat on O'Reilly sitting next to Dennis Miller.
    Remember when you used Rasmussen a few months back? Now you discredit him, shocker. Morris can be a bit of douche sometimes, but you can't deny his polling and campaign experience.

    You still can't get past that undecided almost always go against the incumbent. While some polls have Obama leading how many have him over 50%? And the ones that do are polling adults not even registered vote -which Trap pointed out are even less accurate than likely voters.




  5. #17
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    Galen poll hops.

    One week it's Gallup, then it's Pew, then it's Rasmussen. And if any of them say something anti-Obama, then they are biased.

    Much like he cherry picks quotes from the WH web site, he does the same with polls.

    Must be cozy in that box of his.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  6. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne View Post
    Not sure what you are talking about here. Obama is still leading the aggregate national polls on RCP 47.7-45.4 and TPM 46.5-44.8. Obama is up in electoral numbers on conservative leaning RCP 253-170. Intrade has Obama at 60% chance of winning. Obama is fine; its Romney, quite like McCain that is in need of something in the next 6 months to swing this in his favor.
    NC already covered this. I'm not averaging old polls.

    More importantly, it has been Obama out front in the news cycle and Romney trying to keep up. I don't understand anything about Romney's campaign and what they are trying to do to make an impression. Outside of his successful business experience, he has little to offer in way of a campaign impression. Meanwhile, Obama has been out front with the important female vote, important hispanic vote and now marriage equality. Romney hasn't been able to get out in front of the news really at all.
    To this you are correct. Obama wants to talk about ANYTHING right now except his job performance, the economy, healthcare, etc. So he is going with the "Shiny Object" strategy of making this election about things that aren't even coming up on people's radar as to what they care about. Gay marriage and contraception is only important to select liberals and the media who is working overtime to get their man re-elected.

    Romney is trying to talk about the things that matter, like jobs. But the media doesn't want to talk about that, so they try to change the subject and even exploit inaccurate stories about Romney's high school years to keep Romney from talking about the economy.

    Sadly, liberals don't understand that jobs and gas prices and such are just as important to women if not more right now. Well, they do know that so they are doing their best to change that subject with them.

    My point of my comments in this thread is that you guys are all hyped up over one conservative leaning Rassmussen poll and comments by a guy in Dick Morris who is lucky to get a seat on O'Reilly sitting next to Dennis Miller.
    And my point is that you cherry pick, and people are getting disgusted with Obama and the media trying to fool them. They are starting to wake up, and these polls are bearing that out.



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    Last edited by StingerNLG; 05-12-2012 at 06:47 PM.




  7. #19
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    Re: BACKLASH POLL: Mitt 7 pt lead

    Quote Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne View Post

    For example, even with this marriage equality talk which you all think is a gauranteed losing message for Obama, Romney is defending (or trying to defend) pinning some gay kid down in high school and cutting off his hair. Truthfully, I believe Romney probably has changed and he isn't such a dick today as he was then but as long as he keeps getting put into positions like that, he will will never get out in front of a message. These are the subtle weekly flows of a campaign that is only showing right now the much more effective campaign team behind obama. Romney's team better figure out a way to control a couple news cycles here soon or else Team Obama will define Romney, who really has little definition right now, for himself and you can bet that definition will not be nice.
    LOL - Nope it won't but whatever it is, it won't be as bad as these DEM candidates:

    Mitt Romney did not murder anyone at Chappaquiddick - Teddy Kennedy. Mitt Romney has not been accused of rape - Teddy Kennedy & Slick Willie Clinton. Mitt Romney did not have an affair with a mob babe - John Kennedy. He didn't have an affair with an actress who committed suicide later on - John & Bobby Kennedy. Mitt Romney did not father a child out of wedlock - J. Edwards,
    Mitt did not order the tapping of Martin Luther King's phone - Bobby Kennedy, Mitt was not a member of the KKK like Truman who paid $10
    membership fee, Woodrow Wilson and Senator Byrd.

    Last edited by AirFlacco; 05-12-2012 at 08:04 PM.
    UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU.




  8. #20
    I find it hilariously hypocritical that what Obama did in the Senate, what he did in College, who he associated with in his adult life (Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, etc: ) were all off limits in 2008, and still is. Yet the same media, you know the UNBIASED media (wink,wink,nudge,nudge,know what I mean?) , is taking some great delight in a story about Romney in HIGH SCHOOL, that has not only been shown not accurate and the guy that recalled the story wasn't even there when this supposed incident happened, but has been the latest "whatever we can do to not talk about Obama's record".

    Thus why the polling is starting to turn in Romney's favor. The more of this bullshit they see, the less they trust the media and are starting to break for Romney.

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