Re: BACKLASH POLL: Mitt 7 pt lead
Its six months until the only poll that really matters occurs. You can't say anyone will win any of those swing states with any bit of certainty right now. What you can say is how important the hispanic vote will be expecially out west. It is quite possible that for the first time ever a Republican candidate could win Ohio and lose the election because of the hispanic vote. If you follow folks who are focusing on electoral math, they mostly agree that Obama has more paths to 270 than Romney. It is going to be a tight squeeze for Romney and there isn't much of a potential for him to have an easy win like what you saw with Obama in 2008. Likewise, Obama will won't perform like he did in 2008 but he has the electoral math in his favor and that probably won't change much which puts Romney in a position where he is going to have to run a damn near flawless campaign. Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, Gibbs et al are not only a very formidable team but they have four years of experience.
Originally Posted by AirFlacco
Another site to watch other than the electoral maps is Intrade which has a decent history of reflecting election outcomes. Political savvy people can bet their real money on elections. I like it because it is a different spin on polls. People who go to this site to bet on politics mostl likely, in aggregate, are knowlegeable about trends and outcomes. It isn't a slam dunk by any means but i think it adds a good additional number to electoral maps and aggregate national polls. As it stands now, the political gamblers have Obama at a 60% chance of winning and Romney at a 36% chance at winning. Personally, I have been looking at Obama at about a 60% chance myself for a while now. In 2008, Obama was at about 65% to McCains 35% on Intrade.