Final poll (seriously). How WILL the Ravens use pick 29?

[JustaslowZ06]

Yeah, I voted Hill but already think I'm wrong. I guess I'm rooting to trade back but skeptical they can do it. Well, I am rooting for Hightower to fall, but even more skeptical about that happening.

The most likely scenario is that they stay and make a pick and by the time Ozzie and Eric are done raving about the guy they've convinced me how lucky we are to have grabbed him.

From another thread, but just to show our numbers:
From most recent all the way back. So 4 DB's, 2 QB's, couple WR's, 3 OL, 1 DL, and a handfull of LB's. And a partridge in a pear tree. Ozzie seems to take BPA regardless and even looking at it ONLY Joe Flacco didn't have a 1st round grade, he was a 2nd round grade.

And the funny thing is, even with the lower picks in the 20's we still picked up the #1 or 2 rated at their position. Flacco 4th, Boller who was 3th, Clayton 5th, and J.Smith 3rd and Oher 4th were the only differences.

So it's really going to depend on who slides, but 70% of our 1st's were the top 2, he other 30% were above 2 3s, a 4 and a 5(Hopefully Oz learned rom this mistake on reaching for a WR, hence why I don't see Hill or even Jeffrey having ANY shot at being our first.

[Shas]

And the funny thing is, even with the lower picks in the 20's we still picked up the #1 or 2 rated at their position. Flacco 4th, Boller who was 3th, Clayton 5th, and J.Smith 3rd and Oher 4th were the only differences.

So it's really going to depend on who slides, but 70% of our 1st's were the top 2, he other 30% were above 2 3s, a 4 and a 5(Hopefully Oz learned rom this mistake on reaching for a WR, hence why I don't see Hill or even Jeffrey having ANY shot at being our first.

You do raise a worthwhile point to consider. Made me want look a little harder at the player the Ravens took when they had a later pick in the first round over the last decade. I have indicated that player’s position and his positional ranking out of that draft. I also subjectively graded that player’s eventual value.

2001: pick 31, Todd Heap, TE (1st TE) A-
2002: pick 24, Ed Reed, S (2nd) A
2003: pick 19, Kyle Boller, QB (3rd) D
2005: pick 22, Mark Clayton, WR (5th) C
2006: pick 29, Ben Grubbs, G (1st) B
2008: pick 18, Joe Flacco, QB, (2nd) B+
2009: pick 23, Michael Oher, OT, (4th) C+
2011: pick 27, Jimmy Smith, CB (3rd) INC

There is certainly enough surface evidence to suggest that it is better to take the top one or two players at his position than settling for the third, fourth or even fifth player at his position with a late first-round pick.

However, this analysis may be a bit deceiving. If you look at the draft class as a whole from the years when they took a “second-rate” positional player in the first round, you have to wonder if they just happened to have had the bad luck of running into some drafts that lacked talent at certain positions of need.

Look at the Mark Clayton draft. The four receivers taken ahead of him were Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, and Matt Jones. Even had the Ravens had a chance to pick the second best receiver that year, I don’t think it would have helped them any.

Look at the Michael Oher draft. Jason Smith, Andre Smith, and Eugene Monroe were the tackles ahead of him. Bad year to be drafting a tackle, I’d say.

Boller was third off the board in the year that Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich were the top two. I’m not sure Leftwich had much of a better career than Kyle. So there are some years there where having a shot at the #1 or #2 player at his position would not have meant much.

Will this be that sort of year for centers (Konz)? Inside Linebackers (Kuechly and Hightower?) Will taking the best center or second best ILB turn out to be smarter than the third or fourth best WR? I don’t know if there is evidence to suggest that this is a sure thing.

I could imagine that this draft proves to be pretty deep at guard and wide receiver and the third best player at his position could still turn out to be pretty damn good.

There have been drafts like that before. The Boller draft would have been a good year to be drafting corners. Terrance Newman, Marcus Trufant, Nnamdi Asomugha, Charles Tilman, and Rashean Mathis were among the first seven corners off the board in the first 40 picks, and all have been to the ProBowl. Could this be that kind of year for wide receivers?

Roethlisberger was the third QB taken in 2005 when Manning and Rivers were taken ahead of him.

In 2007 the safety class included LaRon Landry, Michael Griffin, Reggie Nelson, Brandon Merriweather, and Eric Weddle in the top 40 picks. Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Sidney Rice were among the first seven WR’s off the board in rounds one and two that year. So there were misses in that WR class, but also some hits further down the draft order for WRs.

So what I see is that there are definitely years where there is a wealth, or dearth, of talent at certain positions. The idea of taking the best player at his position may or may not be a necessity.

I think you have to ask if a player like Stephen Hill, Eric Zeitler, or Chandler Jones would be the third or fourth best player at his position not only in this draft, but the last five drafts? If you were good enough to see the really big picture accurately, then I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

If you don't think this is a deep draft for a position like WR, then better to go ahead and make the "safe" pick by taking the best center in the draft in Konz, even if he merely turns out to be a "B" contributor like Ben Grubbs.

[Boulderraven]

Got a feeling the grab Jeffreys. Somehow or someway, either trading back or using the 29th pick.

[blah3]

I picked Hightower, because I think he would be their highest rated player (assuming he is still there at 29). I just don't see a lot of teams trading up into the 29th pick. Maybe if someone they really liked dropped close enough I could see them trading up. But I don't know who that would be, Decastro maybe?