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  1. #1
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    Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board



    I'm no draft-nick, but I know there are a many members who have spent a lot of time studying this year's draft class. I thought it'd be cool to compile some sort of composite ranking on the possible players the Ravens could take at pick 29 (if they stay at that pick). If nothing else it'll be a fun exercise and will provide a bit of a reference during the draft for people like me who don't study the players as much.

    The idea is to list players in order of their potential value to the Ravens. Feel free to project your own philosophies. For example, how heavily do you factor in upside, injury risk, behavior issues, whether a pick fills a need, etc...

    List the requested number of players in each of the following categories:
    Steal (as few or as many as you want)
    Good Value (4-6)
    Average Value (4-6)
    Poor Value (4-6)
    Reach (as few or as many as you want)

    Average Value is just what it sounds like. This should be players that, for the Ravens, are worth a pick around 29th overall, not much more, not much less. The 4-6 player restriction in this category and the adjacent ones should pretty much define the relative value of those categories. So for example, a player who is a little too valuable for the Average Value category should fall into your Good Value category.

    Anyone who is "above" the Good Value category would be considered a Steal at 29, but you can list the ones you believe have a chance of falling to us. Same goes for the Reach category. If you want, you can list some players that fall "below" the Poor Value designation that could still get selected based on need, hype, or whatever. Obviously the Ravens are pretty good at avoiding these type of picks, but you never know.

    To be counted in the final composite list, at least fill out the Good, Average, and Poor categories fully.

    You can edit your list anytime between now and Wednesday April 25th at 8PM. After that I'm going to start working on the composite list, and if anyone wants, they can use it as a reference during the draft.
    Last edited by Kyle Cactus; 04-25-2012 at 10:48 AM.




  2. #2
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    As I said, I'm no draft-nick, but I figured I'm obligated to participate if I started the thread...

    Possible Steals:
    SS- Barron
    DT - Brockers

    Good Value:
    T - Glenn
    T - Martin
    T- Adams
    OLB - Upshaw
    DE - Perry

    Average Value:
    WR - Wright
    WR - Hill
    ILB - Hightower
    C- Konz
    DE - Mercilus

    Poor Value:
    DT - Worthy
    DE - Branch
    DE - McClellin
    TE - Fleener
    DE - Jones

    Possible Reaches:
    G - Zeitler
    FS - Smith




  3. #3
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    For me it would be this way:

    Possible Steals:
    SS- Barron
    OLB - Upshaw
    OG - DeCastro
    LB - Kuechly

    Good Value:
    OG- Glenn
    WR - Wright
    WR - Jeffery
    WR - Hill
    LB - Hightower]
    DE - McClellin

    Average Value:
    C- Konz
    OG - Zeitler

    Poor Value:
    OT - Adams
    DE - Jones

    Possible Reaches:
    FS - Smith
    WR - Sanu
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  4. #4
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    I'll try.

    Possible Steals:
    OG - DeCastro
    LB - Kuechly
    DT- Cox

    Good Value:
    OG- Glenn
    SS- Barron
    OLB- Upshaw
    G- Glenn
    CB- Kirkpatrtick

    Average Value:
    ILB- Hightower
    WR- Wright
    DE- Jones

    Poor Value:
    C- Konz
    OG - Zeitler
    WR- Hill
    WR- Randle
    DE- McClellin
    DE- Perry
    T- Martin

    Possible Reaches:
    WR- Jeffrey
    WR - Sanu
    RB- Martin
    RB - Miller
    DE- Mercilus
    DE- Branch
    Last edited by GOTA; 04-25-2012 at 11:06 AM.
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  5. #5
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    Last day to submit a list. I'll put together a composite even if I don't get anymore responses. I won't be home until close to 8PM eastern tonight, so I'll extend the deadline until then. I've updated the OP to reflect that.




  6. #6
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    Steals:
    Upshaw, DeCastro

    (Don't think any chance Barron, Kuechly, Reiff, Floyd fall. If there was a Super Steal category, they'd go there)

    Value:
    Glenn, Hightower, Martin

    Average:
    Konz, Zeitler, Hill, Wright, Randle, Jeffery

    Poor / Reaches:
    Smith, Sanu, McClellin, Adams, Silatolu, Jones, David, Perry, Lewis, Sanders




  7. #7
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    Thanks Shas. Can you provide some distinction between your "poor" and "reach" group? I realize the terminology isn't very precise, but for purposes of combining for a list it'd be helpful to differentiate between a tier just below a fair/average value, and a tier that's an additional notch below that.




  8. #8
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    Well, I guess I had trouble distinguishing from a guy who would be a poor value at 29 versus a reach at 29. But I'll create a distinction by guessing that a "reach" would be a player to fill a dire need, and a poor value player may just be a guy who might be on the board but not worthy of a first round pick most years.

    Reach:
    Adams, Silatolu, Sanu, Sanders

    Poor:
    Smith, McClellin, Jones, David, Perry, Lewis




  9. #9
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    Thanks. Maybe next year if I do this again I'll ditch these labels.

    The idea is to divide players into tiers, with a central tier representing players whose value is around what you would expect for a 29th pick. The name of a tier isn't meant to define it much as it's position relative to the other tiers (if that makes sense).

    Maybe something like the following is more intuitive, even if it's a little awkward.

    +2 Tier
    +1 Tier
    0 Tier
    -1 Tier
    -2 Tier




  10. #10
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    For me it would be this way:

    Possible Steals:
    SS- Barron
    OLB - Upshaw
    OG - DeCastro
    LB - Kuechly

    Good Value:
    OG- Glenn
    WR - Wright
    WR - Jeffery
    WR - Hill
    LB - Hightower]
    DE - McClellin

    Average Value:
    C- Konz
    OG - Zeitler

    Poor Value:
    OT - Adams
    DE - Jones

    Possible Reaches:
    FS - Smith
    WR - Sanu
    Sign me up for this one, but put Kendall Wright in the steal category for me.
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  11. #11
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    I think this is a really good idea btw.
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  12. #12
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    Quote Originally Posted by dandrews View Post
    I think this is a really good idea btw.
    Thanks! I know it'll help make the 1st round a bit more meaningful to watch for someone like me who isn't intimately familiar with every prospect.




  13. #13
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    Quote Originally Posted by dandrews View Post
    Sign me up for this one, but put Kendall Wright in the steal category for me.
    Well the guy from Rotoworld agrees with you. He has a story claiming that Wright is the best WR in the draft, followed by Floyd, and then Blackmon. You can read it here.

    What is interesting is that he predicts Floyd will be first off the board at 7 to Jacksonville, followed by Blackmon to the Cards (13), followed by his top ranked guy, Wright, at 40 to the Panthers.

    He ranks Stephen Hill 9th best WR (behind Quick, for instance) but has him going to San Fran at 30. He does say that Hill is nearly impossible to grade because of a lack of film on him.
    Last edited by Shas; 04-25-2012 at 03:52 PM.




  14. #14
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    Steals:
    Luke Kuechly - This is the player I'd like more than any other in this draft, a perfect heir to Ray Lewis and a huge upgrade in pass coverage, but I expect he'll be long gone. If he slips past the Eagles at 15, Ozzie better be on the phone trying to make a deal to go get him.
    Michael Floyd - A very talented receiver who will also be gone before our pick
    David DeCastro - The draft's best guard, he won't make it past the Bengals at 17, let alone all the way down to us.

    Good value:
    Mark Barron - I don't expect him to get past the middle of the round, but he would be a great piece to put in place behind Ed Reed to eventually take over.
    Dont'a Hightower - I'm not as big on Hightower as many others are, given his deficiencies against the pass... he's more Bart Scott than Ray Lewis. But his leadership skills and natural ability still represent good value for the Ravens if we get him.
    Stephen Hill - I'm leaning more and more towards hoping that Hill, a receiver who exactly fits our needs (speed threat with size and leaping ability), to be our pick in the first round. I know he is raw and has some bust potential, and his hands and route-running are causes for concerns... but you can teach those things. You can't teach height. You can't teach speed (or at least it's very difficult). I'd roll the dice with him.
    Jonathan Martin - Martin has been tagged to slide a little bit, and he would be a tremendous pickup if he makes it down to us. We need to put in some depth behind Bryant McKinnie if we don't think Jah Reid is the answer, and Martin can compete at LG until he's ready to slide over.

    Average value:
    Courtney Upshaw - I don't see the excitement over Upshaw. I don't want to see us grab another OLB before letting Kruger and Kindle have a shot at stepping into the position. He might be good value for the draft slot we're in, but he's not good value for the team, relative to our other needs.
    Kevin Zeitler - I'm impressed with Zeitler's toughness and athleticism, and I think he would be a worthy pick at our spot. But I don't think he would be particular steal.
    Cordy Glenn - Glenn is a big, mauling guard who could also be groomed to play tackle, but I don't think he's likely to become an elite player. Still, it would be surprising to see him fall to us.
    Pete Konz - A lot of mocks have us taking Konz, but I'm not sold. He feels more like a second-round pick. I hope we can do better.
    Amini Silatou - Another strong option at OG, but he's not a prospect that would make me cheer when we pick him. If we deal back into the second round somewhere, then I could be pleased with Silatolu.

    Poor value:
    Harrison Smith - A second-round talent at best.
    Mike Adams - Lots of questions about this guy, I'm expecting him to slide out of the first round entirely.
    Alshon Jeffery - While he'd be a poor value with our first-round pick, I'd be happy to see him slide down to us in the second if we can't get Hill.
    Mohamed Sanu - Same as Jeffrey, would be happy to see him in Ravens purple if we can get him in the second.

    I won't bother listing reaches, there are lots of guys we could reach for and shouldn't.




  15. #15
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    Re: Our Forum's 1st Round Draft Board

    First off, thanks to everyone who made a list! I hope some members will find this to be a useful reference during the draft.

    Methodology
    I took everyone's list and gave each pick a score of 2, 1, 0, -1, or -2 based on the category they were placed in. After ordering them by average score, I somewhat arbitrarily divided them in to the same tiers that I based the scoring on. I also tracked how many times each pick was listed.

    The average score is reported in the Score column, and the number of times a pick was listed is reported in the Frequency column. I've only included players that were listed twice or more, but the rest are listed below for reference with some additional explanation.

    I debated pushing Mecilus and Silatolu down to the reach category, but both had votes for the Average Value category, which non of the other reaches did.

    Ravens 24x7 1st Round Draft Board
    HTML Code:
    Steal
    Pos - Name	Score	Frequency
    G - DeCastro	2.0	5
    LB - Kuechly	2.0	4
    SS - Barron	1.6	5
    OLB - Upshaw	1.3	6
    
    Good Value
    Pos - Name	Score	Frequency
    G/T - Glenn	0.8	6
    LB - Hightower	0.7	6
    WR - Wright	0.6	5
    T - Martin	0.5	4
    
    Average Value
    Pos - Name	Score	Frequency
    WR - Hill	0.3	6
    C - Konz	-0.2	6
    WR - Jeffery	-0.2	5
    DE - McClellin	-0.2	5
    DE - Perry	-0.3	3
    
    Poor Value
    Pos - Name	Score	Frequency
    WR - Randle	-0.5	2
    G - Zeitler	-0.5	6
    T- Adams	-0.8	5
    DE - Jones	-0.8	5
    DE - Mercilus	-1.0	2
    G - Silatolu	-1.0	2
    
    Reach
    Pos - Name	Score	Frequency
    DE - Branch	-1.5	2
    FS - Smith	-1.6	5
    WR - Sanu	-1.8	5
    If a player only received 1 vote, I assumed it was unlikely that he would be selected by the Ravens at 29. Still I list those players below...

    High End Unlikely Picks
    HTML Code:
    Pos - Name		Score	Frequency
    DT - Brockers		2.0	1
    WR - Floyd		2.0	1
    DT - Cox		2.0	1
    CB - Kirkpatrtick	1.0	1
    Low End Unlikely Picks
    HTML Code:
    Pos - Name	Score	Frequency
    DT - Worthy	-1.0	1
    TE - Fleener	-1.0	1
    OLB - David	-1.0	1
    OLB - Lewis	-1.0	1
    T - Sanders	-2.0	1
    RB - Martin	-2.0	1
    RB - Miller	-2.0	1




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