The coming conservative landslide

**AirFlacco** · 04-20-2012, 02:46 AM

Even with Mitt up by +4 in the latest Rasmussen poll a lot of conservative
chicken littles are expecting an OBY repeat. I'm more or less part of that
group but this guy makes a convincing argument why it will be a conservative
landslide even with a 2-1 victory in the electoral college. I've been expecting more seats in the Senate but not enough for repeal and to add more in the house but not the WH.

The big reason is 66 million tea partiers who believe this is the most important
election in history and the rest of the constitution will be destroyed. Pelosi just
said their agenda is to amend the 1st Amendment.

Hope this guy is right. I'm a chicken little and might not even vote.

BTW, the last time I read something like this with the DEMs in control of the
WH and congress was after LBJ won. Two guys wrote a book telling us to
expect a wave of conservatism to kick out the liberals. I laughed but sure
enough Nixon came in followed by Reagan with Carter in the middle who was
a Southern DEM conservative

Now this guy is saying the same thing.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/04/18/th...ive-landslide/

**HoustonRaven** · 04-20-2012, 08:21 AM

There won't be a landslide.

I read Carlson and his site sometimes but this is overly optimistic. The numbers aren't there in some of the states required for that landslide.

**NCRAVEN** · 04-20-2012, 08:28 AM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

There won't be a landslide.

I read Carlson and his site sometimes but this is overly optimistic. The numbers aren't there in some of the states required for that landslide.

I don't think so either. Maybe if Obamacare stays law. I think the Republicans keep the House, either even up the Senate or fall short or go up by one.

The Presidency despite the National polls is going to be close, very close (IMO) based on electoral votes.

**AirFlacco** · 04-20-2012, 11:54 AM

Great posts guys. That's why I said I was in the chicken little group and might not
even vote. Nope, the numbers sure aren't there for a land slide and everything I've read says it will be so close there could be another re-count.

But then there's those 66M reasons for a land slide. I didn't know there were that many plus another 10M or so Christians that didn't vote the last time.

Energize this force and it could be a land slide. Who would have thought OBY
would have won by a land slide in the electorial college in 08?

Like I said, I laughed in 64 when this was predicted.

**Galen Sevinne** · 04-20-2012, 02:18 PM

I tried to read this guy's article until I realized he is basing his "landslide" on Obama's loss of 9% nationally in the polls so his logic is that any state in which Obama didn't win by at least 10% in '08 becomes Romney's. Not to mention that he bases his premise on Tea Party strength. Ever since Glenn Beck was put back in the hole he came from, the Tea Party has been nothing more than a political artifact.

This will give HR a woody because I am going to use an MSNBC guy, Chuck Todd where he has an electoral map with Obama at 227 and Romney at 197 before adding in what he calls the 8 "pure toss up" states. Chuck Todd is for sure a lean left guy but he has also been quite critical of Obama at times since 2008. I watched closely his electoral college predictions in 2008 and he was remarkably good. I tend to follow more closely those from the critical left.

So the guy Trap linked to had no real electoral, state by state, strategy whereas if you look at what Chuck Todd is suggesting, Obama is looking fairly strong at this moment. Start at O:227- R:197 which pushes "lean" states in their respective directions and keeps open the 8 "pure toss ups" - according to Todd.

The 8 with their votes:

NV-6
CO-9
OHIO-21
NC-14
VA-13
PA-20
NH-4
FLA-25

Now look at the most recent aggregate poll numbers in these 8 states Obama vs. Romney:

NV- O +7.5
CO- O +13
OHIO O +6
NC- O +2
VA- R+4
PA- O+5
NH- O+5
FLA- O+4

As that stands its Obama 326 Romney 220. Closer than 2008 but still comfortable. Of course, those polls will probably draw a bit closer with Romneys recent bump but there is a reason liberals are "wishful" these days.

Chuck Todds premise is that the Hisapanic vote, where Obama is securley ahead in, brings him the western states of NV and CO bringing Obama to 242 E.V.s Obama takes PA which Dems have been comfortably winning of late. Obama goes to 262. Todd seems to think the Hispanic vote and increasing minority vote, ultimately gives Obama VA and moves him to 275. So in that scenario, Romney can win FLA and Ohio as well as NC and even NH and can't make it to 272.

**AirFlacco** · 04-20-2012, 08:26 PM

Think about this.

We're 6+months before the election and they're grasping at
straws already attacking Anne and now the dog.

Sounds like they really believe they will lose in a land slide-lol.

**StingerNLG** · 04-21-2012, 08:23 AM

Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne

You're the only one I know, and I am reading blogs and papers constantly, who is talking about dogs. As we sit here tonight, Obama wins.

Which would be one thing if the election was tonight. Its not.

I find it comforting as an American that with 6 months to go Barack Obama is not running away with the poll numbers, which you would think the lord and savior of America who brought us from dark to light should be.

And funny how Obama can't carry the independent vote in any of these polls.

It means there is a chance that people actually aren't sheep.

Sent from my Xoom using Tapatalk 2

**HoustonRaven** · 04-21-2012, 08:28 PM

Florida is so not gone, NC

Rubio is pretty popular and will stump for Romney.

**Galen Sevinne** · 04-21-2012, 10:14 PM

Florida will be interesting. Rubio is trying to resurrect some of the hispanic vote with his version of the Dream Act. We have already see Romney take a hard line approach against anything resembling a Dream Act. That is going to be a tough dance for the two of them.

Plus, we all know how worried the "Pat Buchanan Republicans" are about brown people having lots of babies and making the white man a minority by 2025. This is very frightening for them but imagine the fear stoked when Rubio starts suggesting that brown people should be allowed equal access to education? In the "liberal indoctrination factories" we used to refer to as college?

Rubio will have a fine line with his Dream Act. It will be interesting to see how this goes down in Florida.